June 22nd, 2013
There was a one-two punch when it came to new releases with Safe Haven topping the DVD chart, while Jack Reacher reached top spot on Blu-ray. Safe Haven sold 558,000 units / $9.54 million on DVD and 227,000 units / $5.22 million on Blu-ray. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 29%, which is better than expected, given its target demographic. In total, the film has sold 941,000 units / $16.09 million on DVD, while its Blu-ray running tallies are 373,000 units / $8.53 million. Jack Reacher opened in second place on the DVD chart with 320,000 units / $5.46 million, but earned first place on Blu-ray with 248,000 units / $5.01 million. An opening week Blu-ray share of 44% is good, but not great. After four weeks of release, the film has sold 539,000 units / $9.26 million on DVD and 383,000 units / $7.95 million on Blu-ray. I think the studio was expecting more.
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May 7th, 2013
While there are a lot of new releases listed on Amazon.com, it isn't long before you run into filler. Worse still, the top two selling movies, Jack Reacher and Save Haven, are just mediocre movies. The Great Escape is coming out on Blu-ray this week, which would normally be a reason to celebrate. However, a lot of reviewers are complaining about the poor video quality. The film needed, and deserves, a full restoration, but that didn't happen. We need to look further down the list to find a Pick of the Week contender, and we find one in 30 Rock: Season Seven.
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May 5th, 2013
January is generally a terrible time of the year to release a movie. Not only are people still dealing with Christmas shopping bills, but there will be several Oscar contenders and holiday blockbusters that are still going strong. Because of this, January tends to be filled with bad films that struggle just to become midlevel hits. Mama opened in the middle of the month and earned enough during its opening weekend to cover its production budget. Worldwide, it managed $130 million on just a $15 million budget. Unless it cost an unreasonable amount to market, it has already broken even. Will it be an ever bigger hit on the home market?
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March 15th, 2013
Oz the Great and Powerful began its international run in first place with $69.2 million on 11,250 screens in 46 markets. It crushed the competition is Russia with $14.65 million on 1,137 screens, but this particular market tends to reward fantasy films. It wasn't quite as strong in the U.K., but still earned first place with $5.53 million on 530 screens. It also topped the charts in Mexico ($5.26 million on 207 screens); in Australia ($4.88 million on 268); in Brazil ($4.39 million 732); Italy ($3.76 million 588); Germany ($3.74 million on 548); and in Spain ($2.62 million on 649). On the other hand, it had to settle for second place in Japan with $2.81 million on 584 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.50 million. It could do no better than fourth in South Korea with $1.58 million on 425 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $1.73 million. It is too soon to tell where it will end up, but this is a good start.
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February 4th, 2013
There were a number of factors that hurt the box office over the weekend, not the least of which was the rather exciting Super Bowl game. (At least it sounds like it was exciting. I Googled the score a couple times, but I didn't watch the game.) Warm Bodies easily won the weekend race and finished on the high end of expectations, while Silver Linings Playbook remains on pace to reach $100 million. On the other hand, Bullet to the Head bombed. Overall, the box office fell 21% to just $89 million. Again, the Super Bowl had a lot to do with that. Compared to last year, the box office was down 23%. 2013 is still ahead of 2012 by 3.4% at $917 million to $887 million but that lead could be gone by the end of next weekend.
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January 31st, 2013
February begins with two wide releases, Warm Bodies and Bullet to the Head. Both will have to deal with holdovers, and more importantly, The Super Bowl. Bullet to the Head's target audience is nearly identical to that for the Super Bowl, while at least Warm Bodies has at least some chance of a breakout success. Last year there were three wide releases, two of which opened with more than $20 million. It is going to be almost impossible for 2013 to match that result.
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January 28th, 2013
January ended, and we should all be glad it did. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters did beat modest expectations, but most of the rest failed that test with Movie 43 crashing worse than even my low expectations. The overall box office fell 20% from last weekend to $112 million. This was 11% less than the same weekend last year; fortunately, this was the first miss of 2013 and the year still has a lead of 10% over 2012 at $797 million to $721 million.
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January 24th, 2013
There are three wide releases during the final weekend of January, but it looks like none of them will please critics. As I write this, the three films have a total of seven reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, none of them are positive. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters should easily be the biggest hit of the three new films, but not everyone thinks it will come out on top, as Mama could remain potent. Parker and Movie 43 will likely struggle and getting to just $10 million over the weekend might be asking too much. Fortunately, the combination of new releases and holdovers is very similar to last year, so 2013 could win yet another weekend to start the year.
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January 23rd, 2013
The winners of our Coming Home contest were determined and they are...
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January 23rd, 2013
Amour continues to show legs most limited releases can only dream of. Despite expanding its theater count to 36, the film topped the per theater chart with an average of $11,479. It is very rare for a wide release to reach the $10,000 level during this time of year, but that's exactly what Mama did, as it opened with an average of $10,730 during the three-day portion of the weekend. Quartet might have reached the $10,000 mark. We are still relying on studio estimates and at the moment the studio says it made $320,000 in 32 theaters for an average of exactly $10,000.
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January 22nd, 2013
Mama easily won the box office race over the Martin Luther King, Jr. long weekend, with Zero Dark Thirty earning a solid second place. Unfortunately, the other two new releases, Broken City and The Last Stand, were weak and weaker. The overall box office was on par with last week, down less than 1% to $139 million, over the three-day weekend. This was 6% higher than the same weekend last year, over the same period. Adding on Monday, and the total weekend was $165 million, or about 1% higher than last year. It is still way too early to pay real attention to the year-to-date stats, but 2013 is ahead of 2012 by a 7.0% margin at $658 million to $615 million.
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January 20th, 2013
For all the Oscar hype, moviegoers are voting with their feet this MLK weekend for a more straightforward entertainment bang for their buck. Mama is set to win the weekend by a large margin, with Universal estimating a $28.1 million three-day weekend and about $33 million over four days. With the film playing in a relatively modest 2,647 theaters, that translates into a per theater average of $10,625, comfortably ahead of any other wide release. Jessica Chastain has dual reasons to celebrate, with Zero Dark Thirty set to finish second for the weekend with $17.6 million. Fellow Oscar-hopeful Silver Linings Playbook will be third with about $11.35 million over three days in its first weekend in wide release.
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January 17th, 2013
There are a trio of new releases opening on Martin Luther King, Jr. weekend, but it looks like Zero Dark Thirty has a good chance to remain in first place. Mama is earning pretty good buzz, even if its reviews are only mixed. The Last Stand is the widest release of the week and the reviews are positive, but the buzz is mixed, to be kind. Finally, there's Broken City, which has the quietest buzz and the weakest reviews. Last year, Underworld: Awakening opened with just over $25 million and there's almost no chance that will happen again this year. Then again, we might have better depth.
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January 11th, 2013
Next week there are three films opening wide: Broken City, The Last Stand, and Mama. All three of them appear to be on track for a $15 million to $20 million opening, and none of them appear to be runaway favorites for top spot. To pick the target film for this week's box office prediction contest, I flipped a coin and Mama came out on top. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Mama.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Winx Club: The Secret of the Lost Kingdom Movie on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Winx Club: The Secret of the Lost Kingdom Movie on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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January 1st, 2013
December ended on a positive note with 2012 topping 2011 with a week to spare. Hopefully this will translate into strong box office numbers going forward. There are several January releases that actually look very interesting, but you always have to ask, if the films are as good as they look, why are they opening in January? The biggest hit on this list will likely not be a January release, but a limited release from December that is expanding wide in January. Zero Dark Thirty opened in limited release the Wednesday before Christmas and right away it got off to an incredible start. If it can turn some of its Awards Season nominations into wins, which seems very likely at this point, it should be the biggest hit of January. If it can earn some major Oscars, then it might crack $100 million. Unfortunately, no other film on this release list is likely to come close to the $100 million mark. Last January was unseasonably strong with three films opening with $20 million or more and four films finishing with $50 million or more. It is possible that none of the new releases will reach those relatively weak standards.
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