Weekend predictions: John Wick shooting for $75 million plus this weekend

March 24th, 2023

John Wick: Chapter 4 will continue the remarkable run for the John Wick franchise by earning more on opening weekend than John Wick: Chapter 3—Parabellum, just as that movie beat the opening weekend of John Wick: Chapter Two, which had a better opening weekend than the original John Wick. It’s a rare franchise that manages to grow business with each new release, and an even rarer one that gets better reviews with each outing. But this is one of them. Exactly how much it’ll make this weekend remains a little uncertain, but things are looking very, very good. More...

Home Market Releases for September 10th, 2019

September 11th, 2019

There are two monster hits coming out this week, Aladdin and John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum, and this has scared away almost all of the competition. Fortunately, John Wick is amazing and a clear Pick of the Week contender. There was only one other film in contention for that title, Echo in the Canyon. Granted, I like Parabellum more, but it was already awarded the Pick of the Week when it hit VOD, so Echo in the Canyon gets the honor this week. More...

Home Market Releases for September 3rd, 2019

September 4th, 2019

It’s another short week with not a lot to talk about. The biggest release of the week is Men in Black International, but it missed expectations by a significant margin. The best first-run release is Booksmart, which also missed expectations by a significant margin, but it is still good enough to be a Pick of the Week contender. In fact, it’s only competition is My Hero Academia: Season Three, Part Two. It came down to a literal coin toss and My Hero Academia won, but both deserve the title. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum

September 2nd, 2019

The John Wick franchise has experienced phenomenal growth. The second film earned more domestically than the first film earned worldwide. Meanwhile, John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum earned more worldwide than the first two films combined. Is the franchise also experiencing high quality? Or should fans of these movies be worried about the upcoming fourth film? More...

Home Market Releases for August 20th, 2019

August 21st, 2019

I don’t like awarding the Pick of the Week to films only coming out on Video on Demand, but John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum is the best release of the week and it isn’t even particularly close. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Godzilla Tops Weekend Chart and Helps 2019 to Rare Win

June 4th, 2019

Godzilla: King of the Monsters didn’t live up to expectations, but it did well enough to earn first place on the weekend box office chart. King of the Monsters opened with $47.78 million, while Aladdin was right behind with $42.84 million. This helped the overall box office hold on a lot better than expected, down just 4.3% to $174 million, which is a fantastic hold for a post-holiday weekend. The box office was also a huge improvement from this weekend last year, up 63% in the year-over-year comparison. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $4.54 billion, which is still 7.4% or $380 million behind last year’s pace, but a few more wins like this and that gap won’t seem so bad anymore. That said, as anyone who’s read our monthly preview will know, I’m not expecting too many weekends like this in June. More...

Weekend Estimates: Godzilla Towers Above the Competition

June 2nd, 2019

As expected, Godzilla: King of the Monsters is leading the way on the weekend box office chart. However, it is falling a little short of expectations with an estimated opening weekend of $49.03 million. The film earned a B plus from CinemaScore, which is much better than its reviews, but still not stellar, while the genre isn’t known for long legs, so I’m not sure about its future. It is performing a lot better internationally with $130 million on 52,000 screens in 75 markets, including $70 million in China and $8.4 million in Japan. It has nearly matched its $200 million production budget in just one weekend, while it has yet to open in Spain and a few smaller markets. More...

Friday Estimates: Godzilla Tops Competition, but with a Soft Touch

June 1st, 2019

Godzilla: King of the Monsters dominated the chart on Friday with $19.61 million on its opening day. The film needed to open with a couple of million dollars more than $20 million to match our prediction, but it will come close enough. Its reviews are weak and it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore, which is not great either. It appears the film is aimed at Kaiju fans and might not appeal to all action fans. That said, it is on pace to earn $50 million during its opening weekend, which is enough to be a financial success, assuming it does as well internationally. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Godzilla Crush the Critics with a Massive Opening Weekend?

May 30th, 2019

Godzilla: King of the Monsters leads a trio of new releases hoping to make an impact at the box office this weekend. It will have no trouble earning first place and even the low-end of predictions are at $50 million. Rocketman has the best reviews of the week and it could continue the positive trend for musical biopics. Finally there’s MA, a psychological horror that could become a midlevel hit, but even if it fails to live up to expectations, it was inexpensive enough to break even. Meanwhile, Aladdin and John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum will remain in the top five, while Avengers: Endgame could be one of six films earning more than $10 million over the weekend. This weekend last year, Adrift was the biggest new release opening with just $11.60 million, while Solo: A Star Wars Story was the number one film with $29.40 million. There should be three films that top Solo and as many as six that top Adrift. 2019 should come away with an easy win. More...

International Box Office: Aladdin is the Jewel of the International Chart

May 29th, 2019

Aladdin opened with $121.0 million in 54 markets earning first place on the international chart. Add in its three-day domestic debut and it had a global opening of $212.5 million at the end of business on Sunday. The film’s biggest market was China, where it managed $18.92 million over the weekend, earning first place along the way. It was also number one in the U.K. with $8.97 million and it topped the chart in Mexico with $8.78 million. The latter is more impressive, given the relative size of the two markets. On the downside, the film was expensive to make and it only has one major market left to debut in (Japan), so it will need long legs to break even in a timely fashion. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Aladdin Earns $100 million Opening

May 28th, 2019

It was a great weekend for Aladdin and an okay weekend for the box office as a whole. Aladdin made more over the three-day portion of the weekend than most predicted it would make over four days. Unfortunately, not all of the rest of the films were able to pull their weight. The overall box office still grew 23% from last weekend reaching $181 million, but it slipped when compared to last year. Granted, it fell less than $1 million or 0.5% when compared to the same weekend last year, which is such a small gap that it is practically a tie. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $4.31 billion, which is 9.2% or $440 million lower than 2018’s running tally of $4.75 million and this number needs to improve over the coming weeks. More...

Weekend Estimates: Aladdin Goes Long with $86 million over Three-Day Weekend

May 26th, 2019

Aladdin’s box office continues to grow with Disney projecting $86.1 million over the three-day weekend, putting it on pace for $105 million including Monday. Its reviews are fine, but its A from CinemaScore is really telling a story here and it should lead to long legs, especially with school holidays starting soon. Internationally, the film earned $121.0 million, not including Monday, for a $207.1 million global debut. The film did okay in China with $18.7 million, but clearly the lack of nostalgia was hurting it here. The film was a much bigger hit in Mexico with $9.2 million, but it was also a smash in the U.K. ($8.4 million); Italy ($6.6 million); and others. More on that during our International Top Five column. More...

Friday Estimates: Aladdin Has a Memorable Start with $31 Million

May 25th, 2019

Aladdin is looking stellar after a $31.0 million opening Friday. The film’s reviews are nothing special, but it scored an A from CinemaScore, so clearly audiences are loving the movie much more than critics did. The word-of-mouth should help its legs and this puts it on pace to top $100 million over the four-day weekend and even top last year’s top film, Solo: A Star Wars Story, with about $107 million. This is much better than most predictions and a return to form for live-action Disney remakes after Dumbo’s disappointing run earlier in the year. It could even help 2019 top 2018 in the year-over-year comparison, but that depends on the rest of the new releases and holdovers also matching or exceeding expectations. That doesn’t look as promising. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Aladdin Grant the Box Office its Wish?

May 23rd, 2019

It’s Memorial Day long weekend, which is historically one of the biggest weekends of the year. However, this year there are not a lot of prime new releases to talk about. Aladdin is the only new release expected to become even a midlevel hit, while both Booksmart and Brightburn are expected to struggle in their counter-programming roles. The three new releases will be competing for spots in the top five with three holdovers, John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum, Avengers: Endgame, and Pokémon: Detective Pikachu. That’s six films competing for five slots, so one of them will miss out. This weekend last year, Solo: A Star Wars Story led the way with $84.42 million over the three-day weekend. There are many who think Aladdin won’t make that much over four days. I’m a little more bullish than most, but I don’t think 2019 will get back in the winning column this weekend. Aladdin’s numbers haven’t picked up as they should have. More...

Theater Averages: John Wick Denied a Souvenir

May 23rd, 2019

There were only two films in the $10,000 club this past weekend, The Souvenir and John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum. The former earned an average of $19,600 in four theaters, while the latter earned an average of $14,758 in close to 4,000 theaters. More...

International Box Office: Pikachu Tops Russian Box Office and Remains International Champ

May 22nd, 2019

Pokémon: Detective Pikachu remained in first place earning $56.4 million on 32,113 screens in 72 markets for totals of $196.2 million internationally and $290.6 million worldwide. The film’s only major market debut of the weekend, and indeed the last major market of the film’s international run, was Russia. It earned first place there with $4.0 million on 3,085 screens. Its biggest market overall was China, where it added $17.94 million on 15,000 screens to its running tally, which now sits at $69.66 million after two weeks of release. It fell 55% during its sophomore stint, which is an amazing hold for this market. The film has no major market openings going forward, but it should stick around long enough to crack $300 million internationally and even has a slim shot at $500 million worldwide. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: John Wick Wins Weekend, Can’t Stop Deadpool from Killing 2019

May 21st, 2019

The overall weekend was about as good as anyone could hope for with John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum topping expectations with $56.82 million. This mostly made up for A Dog’s Journey and The Sun is Also A Star, both of which missed low expectations. However, the overall weekend still fell 12% when compared to last weekend at $147 million and this is 30% lower than the same weekend last year. To be fair, almost no one was expecting this year to match last year, because last year Deadpool 2 opened. Year-to-date, 2019 is still behind 2018 by a 9.2% or $410 million margin at $4.03 billion to $4.44 billion. Fortunately, if Aladdin does as well next weekend as many are expecting, then this losing streak will end after just one week. More...

Weekend Estimates: John Wick Wrecks the Competition

May 19th, 2019

John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum is way ahead of the weekend competition with a projected $57.03 million opening weekend. This is not only more than the next two films combined, it is more than the first film in the John Wick franchise earned domestically. Add in the film’s reviews, its A minus from CinemaScore, and Memorial Day long weekend, which is next weekend, and it should have relatively long legs. $150 million domestically isn’t out of the question. Like the other films in the John Wick franchise, this one isn’t doing as well internationally. However, it is still step up from the second film with an opening weekend of $35.2 million from 66 markets. This includes number one debuts in the U.K. ($4.6 million) and Australia ($2.8 million), while it had to settle for second place in Russia ($3.8 million) and third place in Mexico ($2.1 million). The film likely cost $50 million to make and an equal amount to advertise, while Lionsgate’s share of the global opening weekend is likely north of $40 million. The film is on pace to break even before it reaches the home market. More...

Friday Estimates: Parabellum’s Unparalleled Success

May 18th, 2019

John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum got off to a surprisingly strong start on Friday with $22.67 million during its first day of release. Even if we subtract Thursday’s previews, this is still more than the first film made during its opening weekend. It would take incredibly short legs for Parabellum to not earn more during its opening weekend than the first film earned in total. It should have reasonable legs over the weekend. Granted, it is a sequel and its target audience is known to rush out to theaters; however, its reviews are strong and it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, tying it with the second film for best in the franchise. With a little luck, it will crack $60 million over the full weekend. More...

Thursday Night Previews: John Wick’s Parabellum is Without Peer

May 17th, 2019

John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum had a stunning debut earning $5.9 million during its Thursday previews. This is not only more than the first two movies made during their previews, but it made almost twice as much as those two films combined. That doesn’t mean Parabellum will open with nearly twice as much as the first two films combined, because the hype for this film will very likely make it more front-loaded at the box office. That said, it would have to have really short legs to not top our $48 million prediction over the full weekend. If audiences like the movie as much as critics did, it could even top $60 million over the full weekend. That would be a huge help to the overall box office. More...

Weekend Predictions: John Wick Takes Aim at Top Spot

May 16th, 2019

This weekend likely won’t be a particularly good one at the box office, when compared to last weekend and especially when compared to last year. There are three wide releases, but only John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum is expected to make a significant impact at the box office. A Dog’s Journey could become a midlevel hit, while The Sun is Also A Star might not open in the top five. Fortunately, both Pokémon: Detective Pikachu and Avengers: Endgame should provide some power at the box office. Unfortunately, this weekend last year, Deadpool 2 debuted with just over $125 million. There’s almost no chance 2019 will match 2018 at the box office and the year’s mini-wining streak is about to come to an end. More...

2019 Preview: May

May 1st, 2019

April got off to a fast start with Shazam! opening the first weekend of the month. Meanwhile, Avengers: Endgame ended the month with a record-breaking debut. Unfortunately for 2019, last April had a very similar result leaving 2019 behind 2018’s pace by over $400 million. Will May be able to turn things around? Last May, there were only two films that reached $200 million, Deadpool 2 and Solo: A Star Wars Story. Meanwhile, this May there are three such films, Detective Pikachu, Aladdin, and Godzilla: King of the Monsters. There are two points we need to make. Firstly, the only reason there are more potential $200 million hits this year is because May has five Fridays this year. Secondly, this May also has a lot better depth with films like John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum and Rocketman being potential $100 million hits. Even if we ignore the final weekend, May should do well enough to cut into 2018’s lead over 2019. It’s not going to be able to cut it in half, but it could do well enough to make box office analysts a little more positive about the year’s chances overall. More...

John Wick: Chapter 3—Parabellum Trailer 2

March 22nd, 2019

Action movie starring Keanu Reeves opens May 17 ... Full Movie Details.

John Wick returns with a $14 million price tag on his head and an army of bounty-hunting killers on his trail. After killing a member of the shadowy international assassin’s guild, the High Table, John Wick is excommunicado, but the world’s most ruthless hit men and women await his every turn. More...

John Wick 3: Parabellum Trailer

January 18th, 2019

Action movie starring Keanu Reeves opens on May 17 ... Full Movie Details. More...