July 4th, 2012
There were four new releases to reach the top ten on the Blu-ray sales chart this week, but none of them were able to unseat Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows. That film remained in first place with 444,000 units / $11.08 million for the week lifting its totals to 1.90 million units / $44.59 million after two.
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June 27th, 2012
It was a nearly record-breaking week on the Blu-ray sales chart this week, which is very strange for this time of year. Granted, we had the last of the winter blockbusters, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, leading the new releases, but it was still better than expected. That film sold 1.77 million units generating $40.71 million for a for an opening week Blu-ray share of 54%.
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June 20th, 2012
New releases dominated the Blu-ray sales chart just as much as it did the DVD sales chart. Two Blu-rays, John Carter and Act of Valor topped the list. John Carter led the way in terms of units with 965,000 units / $19.30 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was just shy of 60%. The film is still going to lose money, but its high definition run should at least cut the loses a bit.
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June 18th, 2012
New releases dominated the DVD sales chart this week earning the top five spots. They also placed five more DVDs in the top twenty. Act of Valor led the way with 703,000 units / $11.94 million, which is a surprisingly strong start.
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June 18th, 2012
There are a trio of wide releases coming out on the home market this weekend; however, two of them were box office bombs, while the only one that did reasonably well at the box office was absolutely eviscerated by critics. Project X will likely be the best selling new release of the week, but that's not a good sign, as it made just over $50 million in theaters. Additionally, according to Amazon.com, the top ten best selling new releases include a trio of catalogue titles making their Blu-ray debut. We are not talking about classics that are finally making the leap to high definition. We are talking about films like Newsies, which earned less than $3 million during its original theatrical run. As for potential Pick of the Week winners, there were a few contenders. Jeff, Who Lives At Home is an excellent film, but the DVD and the Blu-ray have absolutely no extras. Wilfred: Season One could be a winner, but I didn't get a chance to see the show when it first aired, and the DVD / Blu-ray is late. The screener is also late for Louie: Season Two, but at least I've seen season one and the DVD or Blu-ray is the best bet for Pick of the Week.
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June 14th, 2012
John Carter will go down in history as one of the biggest box office flops of all time. It is one of the most expensive movies to make, yet it has the lowest domestic box office numbers for a film that cost $200 million or more to make. (That's only counting films that we have reasonable production budget numbers for. There is a chance a studio would low-ball production budget numbers for a film that bombed.) It may end up losing more money than any other film previously made. But is it really that bad? Or did the film deserve to find a much, much larger audience?
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June 5th, 2012
While summer is usually the slowest time of the year on the home market, this week is fantastic with a lot of prime releases, including first-run, TV on DVD releases, classics and limited releases. Unfortunately, the largest single category is, "Screener is Late". You will see that phrase countless times on this list. (Perhaps it's because last week was a short week due to Memorial Day.) It is especially hard to select a Pick of the Week, because I don't like handing out that title when the screener is late. There are a few likely candidates, including Burn Notice: The Complete Fifth Season, Yellow Submarine on Blu-ray, but I went with Tomboy on DVD.
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May 25th, 2012
It should be a strong week on the limited release front. Not only are there a number of releases, but four of them are earning overwhelmingly positive reviews. Granted, not all four of them have a great shot at mainstream success. OC87 is earning perfect reviews so far, but it is a documentary about a man with mental illnesses, and that screams art house circuit. Oslo, 31 August is earning nearly perfect reviews, but it is a Norwegian film and those movies don't have a large built in audience, not even on the art house circuit. The Intouchables has made $300 million internationally and French films do have a built in audience, at least compared to other foreign language films. Moonrise Kingdom has amazing reviews, a proven director, and an impressive ensemble cast. If I were a betting man, I would put money on this movie.
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May 21st, 2012
The Avengers continued its monster run and it crushed Battleship, The Dictator, and What to Expect When You're Expecting. In fact, The Avengers made more than the three new releases made combined. This is partially due to the film's strong hold, but in large part due to the newcomers' weaknesses, and this led to a 16% decline from last week to $143 million. Unfortunately, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides didn't show this weakness when it opened and the overall box office was a 15% lower than this weekend last year. 2012 still has a massive 16% lead over 2011 at $4.03 billion to $3.49 billion. Hopefully this is just a momentary blip and 2012 gets back to its winning ways very soon.
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May 17th, 2012
For the first time all month, there is more than one new release coming out. However, despite this, it looks like The Avengers will still reign on top of the box office chart. Only Battleship has a real shot at beating it, while The Dictator and What to Expect When You're Expecting combined probably won't make as much as The Avengers will over the weekend. This is a little worrisome, as last year saw the release of Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, which opened with $90 million. There's almost no chance any film will make that much this weekend. In fact, the top two films might not make that much combined. So will 2012 lose on the year-over-year comparison? Probably not, as this year has a little more depth. It could be uncomfortably close though.
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April 18th, 2012
Titanic 3D had an insane second weekend on re-release on the international chart earning $98.90 million on 10,066 screens in 69 markets for totals of $157.15 million internationally and $201.87 million worldwide. Its complete total is now $2.04 billion, which is a stunning figure. The majority of the film's weekend haul came from China, where it broke records with $67 million, which broke Transformers: Dark of the Moon's record opening weekend in that market. The film remained in top spot in Russia with $3.15 million on 972 screens for a total of $10.34 million after two. Its total in the U.K. rose to $12.68 million after two weeks of release, including $2.87 million on 429 screens this past weekend. At this point, I can imagine studio heads looking at every film that earned more than $300 million and trying to figure out if they can be converted to 3D or not. If it only costs $18 million to convert a film and it can make $200 million worldwide, it's an easy way to make money. Of course, it's also an easy way to over-saturate the market to the point of no return.
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April 5th, 2012
In a reversal of what happened domestically, Wrath of the Titans won the race on the international chart with an estimated $78 million in 60 markets. This includes some powerhouse results, like $12.66 million on 1,164 screens in Russia, which is more than The Hunger Games has made in two weeks. However, Russia tends to reward fantasy films over most other genres. It also did very well in Mexico ($5.09 million on 1,494 screens) and in Brazil ($4.05 million on 517). On the other hand, it struggled in the U.K. placing second with $3.52 million 466 screens. That's a weaker opening than it had here, given the relative size of the two markets. With a production budget of $150 million, it will likely need close to $400 million to break even before the home market. Anything more than $300 million will be enough to cover expenses, eventually, but probably won't be enough to greenlight a third installment in the franchise.
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March 30th, 2012
There are two saturation level releases coming out this week, Wrath of the Titans and Mirror Mirror. Even so, there's a 99% likelihood that The Hunger Games will repeat on the top of the chart. Wrath of the Titans would have to nearly double its average prediction and / or The Hunger Games would have to collapse by a near record amount for there to be a new number one this weekend. Additionally, unless there's some catastrophic event that keeps people away from theaters nationwide, the overall box office should see massive growth from last year. In fact, even without The Hunger Games, there could be some growth from last year, as most analysts expect the two new releases from this year to be stronger than the three new releases from last year. The only downside is the lack of depth. John Carter should place sixth with $2 million over the weekend, but that wouldn't even be enough for a top ten finish last year.
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March 28th, 2012
The Hunger Games opened in first place internationally, but it wasn't as dominant as it was domestically. The film earned $59.25 million on 7,700 screens in 67 markets. That's a strong start for a film that cost $80 million to make, but it is a weak start for a film that opened with $152 million domestically. It open in first place in a number of major markets and did very well in Australia with $9.48 million on 471 screens. By comparison, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 made more than $12 million when it opened there last year. In the U.K. it made $7.77 million on 511 screens, compared to nearly $22 million for Breaking Dawn. It also opened in first place in Russia with $6.62 million on 1,165 screens, in Germany with $4.24 million on 613, in Mexico with $3.57 million on 1,362, in France with $3.55 million on 706, and in Brazil with $2.98 million on 636. These results are all good, but nowhere near as potent as its domestic opening. The film has yet to open in South Korea, Spain, Italy, and a few other markets, so it should earn about $200 million internationally and about $500 million worldwide.
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March 26th, 2012
The buzz surrounding The Hunger Games became nearly deafening by the time it opened. There were some concerns that the film couldn't possible live up to the hype. However, not only did it live up to the hype, it crushed expectations and set records. Overall the box office pulled in $214 million, which is the ninth best combined weekend total and the best non-Holiday season weekend (Summer blockbuster season and the Thanksgiving to New Years holiday run). This was 93% higher than last weekend and 76% higher than the same weekend last year. Needless to say, 2012 stretched its lead over 2011, and it now sits 19% ahead of last year's pace at $2.41 billion to $2.02 billion. This is behind 2010's running tally of $2.69 billion, but ahead of 2009, which had $2.38 billion at this point of the year, so while we are not quite on a record-breaking pace, it has been a very good year so far.
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March 22nd, 2012
At the beginning of the month, most people were expecting The Hunger Games to have one of the biggest openings of March and one of the all-time biggest openings for a non-sequel film. However, that's changed... for the better. Instead of analysts predicting $70 million to $80 million over its opening weekend, expectations have grown to the point where it could earn over $100 million over the next three days and still be considered a disappointment. In fact, there are many who are predicting The Hunger Games will make more by itself than the entire industry made last year. Needless to say, if that happened, 2012 will make up for last week's 3.6% year-over-year decline in a huge way.
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March 21st, 2012
John Carter's international run is heavenly, at least compared to its domestic run. It's weak compared to its production budget. This weekend it added $40.7 million in 54 markets for a total of $126.10 million. It opened huge in China with $10.4 million, while it held on reasonably well in Russia earning $6.60 million on 939 screens over the weekend for a total of $26.10 million after two. At this pace, getting to $200 million internationally and $300 million worldwide might be difficult. And that would be the minimum needed to save face.
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March 19th, 2012
2012's winning streak finally came to a close, but it was close. Overall the total box office was $111 million, which was 17% lower than last week and more importantly, down 3.6% compared to the same weekend last year. 21 Jump Street did hold up its end of the box office numbers, but since the only other new release in the top ten was Casa di me Padre, is wasn't enough. Year-to-date, 2012 is still ahead of 2011's pace by 16% at $2.16 billion to $1.87 billion. That lead will grow next weekend with the release of The Hunger Games, which could be record-breaking at the box office and is just as strong with critics.
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March 18th, 2012
The industry will enjoy another solid weekend at the box office thanks to a healthy debut by 21 Jump Street, which will ride very positive reviews to about $35 million, according to Sony's Sunday estimate. Unfortunately, that probably won't be quite enough to give 2012 another win over 2011 -- somewhat surprisingly, because Limitless topped the chart last year with only $18.9 million, but the five movies that topped $10 million compared to three this year gives last year the edge.
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March 15th, 2012
So far 2012 has brought hit after hit, but what has been lost in the box office success is the dearth of quality releases. Last weekend, there wasn't a single film in the top ten to earn overall positive reviews. (Although Doctor Seuss' The Lorax is very close to that level.) Fortunately that will change this weekend as 21 Jump Street is earning unbelievably positive reviews. It is the only wide release of the week, compared to three wide releases last year. On the other hand, the best of last year's crop, Limitless, opened with less than $20 million and all but the most pessimistic think 21 Jump Street will top that with ease and if the holdovers can hold on, we could see yet another win at the box office.
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March 14th, 2012
John Carter absolutely dominated the international box office; however, this is because of how wide it opened, not how strong its opening was. Over the weekend, it earned $66.12 million on 18,890 screens in 51 markets for a total opening of $68.93 million. Its per screen average was a mere $3,500, which is low for this type of release. There were some highlights, led by a first place, $16.55 million opening on 939 screens in Russia. It also opened in first place in Mexico with $3.42 million on 1,144, which is better than Journey 2: The Mysterious Island opened with earlier in the year. On the other hand, it's first place opening in the U.K. was more subdued at $3.07 million on 456 screens.
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March 14th, 2012
The winners of our Answers for Everything contest were determined and they are...
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March 14th, 2012
John Carter had a poor start in theaters, but its IMAX numbers were strong by comparison. Out of the $30.18 million it earned domestically, approximately $5.0 million came on 289 IMAX screens. It added approximately $4.5 million on 194 IMAX screens on the international scene. Additionally, with openings in Japan, China and other markets still ahead, it still has a lot of box office potential. Granted, this isn't enough to break even, but at least it was a hit in one regard.
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March 12th, 2012
As expected, Doctor Seuss' The Lorax led the way at the box office, but unfortunately, it was on the low end of expectations. Unfortunately, while John Carter did land on the high end of expectations, it really wasn't able to pick up the slack. Overall, the box office fell 21% from last week to $133 million. This was higher than the same weekend last year, but by only 3%. At least the streak is still intact and has now reached ten weeks. Year-to-date, 2012 has reached $2 billion and is now ahead of 2011 by 18% at $2.01 billion to $1.70 billion. Let's hope next week is just as lucrative.
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March 11th, 2012
Although John Carter's opening won't be as bad as the direst predictions, an anemic $30.6 million debut will condemn the film to the record books for all the wrong reasons and (in spite of good international numbers) almost certainly cause a write-down for Disney. Or more immediate embarrassment, the film will fail to win the weekend, coming in second to The Lorax, which is set to post $39.1 million in its second weekend, according to Universal's estimate. That combination of two $30 million plus films will give 2012 another weekend win over last year.
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March 8th, 2012
Three films open wide release this week, but none of them look like they will compete with the Doctor Seuss' The Lorax for top spot. John Carter is the only one with a real shot at first place, but there's a chance it won't make half as much as The Lorax does over the next three days. Silent House is the best-reviewed new release of the week, and if it can remain above 60% positive, it will be the only film in the top ten with overall positive reviews. Finally there's A Thousand Words, but the less said about that film, the better. (It's opening in under 2,000 theaters with zero positive reviews.) Last year Battle: Los Angeles opened in first place with $35 million, a figure The Lorax should top, while the rest of the top ten look about same this year as last. The winning streak should continue.
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March 2nd, 2012
Next week John Carter debuts, which could be a monster hit, or a $250 million boondoggle. No matter how well it does at the box office, it is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction Contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for John Carter.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Answers to Nothing on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Stormhouse on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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March 1st, 2012
February continued 2012's winning streak, which has now reached eight weeks. Will that streak continue in March? I'm not sure it will. There are some very good signs. For instance, last March, only one film reached $100 million, Rango, while there were a couple others that cracked $75 million, Battle: Los Angeles and Limitless. Plus the final weekend of this month lines up with the first weekend of April last year, which also had a $100 million hit, Hop. This time around, things look a whole lot better at the top with a potential $200 million hit, The Hunger Games, and two more that should hit the century mark, Dr. Seuss' The Lorax, and Wrath of the Titans. Plus a couple others, 21 Jump Street and John Carter of Mars, that could top $75 million. However, there are a few weeks that look soft when compared with last year. I suspect The Hunger Games will be such a huge hit that overall March 2012 will perform better than March 2011, but I also think there will be a couple weeks of year-over-year declines. On the plus side, very few films feel like filler; in fact, there are very few films, period. Over the next five weekends, only nine films are opening wide, which is odd for this time of year. In fact, it would be slow for the heart of summer, when most weeks have a blockbuster and one counter-programming film. Will this help the overall box office, as no films will be squeezed out? Or will the lack of choices hurt the box office? We will soon find out, but I remain cautiously optimistic.
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