April 26th, 2016
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We are in Q2, which is historically the slowest time of the year on the home market. The last of the monster Christmas hits were released weeks ago and none of the yearly year hits have come out yet. Ironically, the biggest release of the week is actually a Christmas film, Krampus, and its Blu-ray Combo Pack is a contender for Pick of the Week. (It is admittedly a slow week.) Its two biggest competitors are both foreign-language films: Phoenix: Criterion Collection - Buy from Amazon: DVD or Blu-ray and Son of Saul - Buy from Amazon: DVD or Blu-ray. Son of Saul won the Oscar this year for Best Foreign-Language Film, but I'm going with Phoenix instead.
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February 8th, 2016
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Super Bowl weekend was not a good weekend at the box office. The competition usually takes its toll at the box office, but this year it was particularly bad. Kung Fu Panda 3 led the way with just $21.24 million, while Hail, Caesar! was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. In fact, the weekend was so bad that Star Wars: The Force Awakens remained in third place during its eighth weekend of release. The overall box office took a massive hit, down 31% to just $95 million. This was 37% lower than the same weekend last year, but miraculously, 2016 maintained its lead over 2015, by the tiniest of margins, $1.34 billion to $1.33 billion. With a difference of 0.5% or $6 million, the lead will likely disappear during the week, but 2016 should get it back when Deadpool debuts this Friday.
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February 2nd, 2016
Kung Fu Panda 3 led the way during the weekend with $41.28 million over the weekend. This was below admittedly optimistic predictions, but still great for this time of year. The rest of the new releases were not as strong and it is likely all three will lose money in the end. Fortunately, Kung Fu Panda 3 was strong enough to help the overall box office grow. The overall box office rose 22% to $139 million. More impressively, and more importantly, the box office was 38% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $1.01 billion, reaching the $1 billion mark faster than last year. It wasn't the fastest year to get there, as 2010 holds that record thanks to Avatar. 2016 has regained the lead over 2015 at 1.9% or $19 million. Obviously the usually caveats apply here: It is far too early and that lead is far too small to be of real significance. That said, it is always better to be ahead than to be behind, no matter how small that lead it.
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January 31st, 2016
Kung Fu Panda 3 is making a solid start domestically this weekend with Fox projecting a $41 million debut. That’s the weakest start for any film in the franchise, behind the $47.7 million opening of Kung Fu Panda 2, and Kung Fu Panda’s $60.2 million back in 2008. The downward trend is in large part explained by the January release of the third movie, compared to June and May for the previous two. In fact, it still technically has a shot at having the best first weekend for a film in January, a record currently held by Ride Along with $41.5 million, although American Sniper really has bragging rights, with $89.3 million when it expanded wide last year. More importantly, Kung Fu Panda 3 opened with an estimated $57 million in China, a record for an animated film in the territory, and $75 million internationally.
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January 30th, 2016
Kung Fu Panda 3 topped the chart on Friday with $10.5 million. There are not a lot of animated films that open this time of year, so it is hard to find a good comparison. If the film has the same internal multiplier as The LEGO Movie, then it will earn $42.4 million over the weekend, which would be a record opening for January. However, that movie was an original film, while this is the third film in its franchise. That will probably hurt it enough that $40 million is a more likely number. That's still a good opening, plus it is earning much more in China ($40.34 million after just two days of release) so there’s little reason to worry about its financial prospects.
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January 28th, 2016
There are three, three and a half, wide releases coming out this week. (I've seen reports that Jane Got a Gun is opening in 600 to 1,200 theaters. Even the high end will likely keep it out of the top ten.) Of the three truly wide releases, only Kung Fu Panda 3 is expected to be a significant hit. In fact, it will likely earn more than the rest of the top five combined. On the other hand, The Finest Hours will likely bomb compared to its $85 million production budget, while Fifty Shades of Black will be a financial hit only because its production budget is very low. This means for Kung Fu Panda 3 the only real competition is from last year, when American Sniper earned $30.66 million. Kung Fu Panda 3 should top that by about $20 million. Additionally, no other film earned more than $10 million last year, while this year there could be five films in the top five reaching that mark. 2016 should bounce back in the year-over-year comparison after two soft weeks.
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January 1st, 2016
2016 will begin the same way 2015 ended, with Star Wars: The Force Awakens on top. In fact, three of the five films that have the best shot at box office success in January are The Force Awakens, The Hateful Eight, and The Revenant, all of which opened in December. There are two true January releases that could also do really well, for this time of year: Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3. The rest of the releases are just hoping to become midlevel hits. Last January, American Sniper dominated earning more than $300 million. Its success could prevent 2016 from being ahead in the year-over-year comparison by the end of the month, but this year does have better depth.
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