November 27th, 2015
It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, as well as franchise box sets. I'm going to try to keep it to a dozen or so releases, as these columns are notorious for getting out of hand. Also, while there were a record number of $1 billion box office hits, there were not as many first run releases that earned stellar reviews this year.
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January 16th, 2014
The Oscar nominations were announced this morning and there are some surprises mixed in with the predictable results. Gravity and American Hustle led the way with ten nominations each while 12 Years a Slave was right behind with nine. The fact that 12 Years a Slave wasn't the leader is the first of the surprises.
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November 24th, 2013
Thanksgiving is less than a week away and that means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and a ton of shopping. It also means the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. Over the next month, we will talk about TV on DVD releases, independent releases, foreign language releases, classics, etc. but this week we start with Major Movie Releases. These are first run releases, franchise box sets, etc. However, this year seems weaker than years past. Last year the biggest new release was The Avengers, which was also one of the best reviewed wide releases of the year. This year the biggest release is Iron Man 3, which earned good reviews, but not great reviews. Last year there were a ton of franchise box sets. This year has been pretty barren. In fact, I think the only franchise box set that's truly new and really worth picking up is...
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September 24th, 2013
If I were to use a single world to describe this week's list of new releases, that world would be Iron Man 3. This film will dominate the DVD and Blu-ray sales chart by such a degree that practically none of the other releases matter. That's not to say there are no other releases that are worth picking up, it's just that they will be crushed on the sales chart. The best release of the week is Modern Family: Season Four, which is a clear contender for Pick of the Week. Unfortunately, I'm still waiting for the screener to arrive. This is also true for a number of new releases this week, but fortunately a late release is able to fill the void. Homeland: Season Two is clearly the best release on this week's list and the Blu-ray is the Pick of the Week.
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September 23rd, 2013
Iron Man 3 was the first Marvel Comics movie since The Avengers broke records. Expectations for this film rose dramatically as a result of that film's box office success, not to mention its critical acclaim. Can Iron Man 3 live up to these expectations? Or has The Avengers set the bar too high?
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June 20th, 2013
There are two potential monster hits opening this weekend: Monsters University and World War Z. Not only should both of those films score with moviegoers, but Man of Steel's sophomore stint should be strong as well resulting in a powerful weekend box office. This weekend last year was led by Brave with $66.32 million, a figure Monsters University should top. Meanwhile this year has a lot more depth at the box office than last year did, so 2013 should earn a victory in the year-over-year comparison. This is great news, because 2013 is still far behind 2012.
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May 29th, 2013
Memorial Day long weekend has come and gone and it was a boon to the box office numbers. Not only did Fast and Furious 6 reach the high end of predictions, as did Epic. On the other hand, The Hangover III struggled. The positives overrode the negatives by a large margin and the overall box office rose to $254.37 million, which is a new record for a three-day Memorial Day weekend. Adding in Monday, and the box office made $313.18 million. The three-day portion of the weekend rose 65% compared to last weekend and 67% compared to last year. This weekend earned more than $100 million more than the same weekend in 2012. That is something that usually only happens when there's a misalignment in holiday weekends. If you add in Monday, 2013's Memorial Day long weekend earned 63% more than the Memorial Day long weekend from 2012. Granted, 2013 is still far behind 2012, but this is great news. Hopefully it will keep up for a while.
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May 24th, 2013
It's the Memorial Day long weekend and there are three new films looking to take advantage of the holiday, plus a number of holdovers that will likely still bring in a lot of money. Fast and Furious 6 is leading the way in terms of box office potential and many think it will crack $100 million over four days; some think it will crack $100 million over three days. The Hangover III debuted on Thursday, which will give it a jump on the competition, but soften its weekend numbers. Finally, there's Epic, a family film that seems like a sure hit, except there is a lot of competition this weekend. Star Trek into Darkness, Iron Man 3, and The Great Gatsby are all still doing well and should provide some competition for the three new releases. All combined, those six films should make as much as the entire box office did last year and 2013 will start to close the gap with 2012.
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May 21st, 2013
There was some bad news this weekend, mostly at the top. Star Trek into Darkness did open in first place with a very healthy 4-day total, but it opened below its predecessor and not a lot of people were predicting that. The overall box office fell 2.8% from last weekend to $154 million. On the other hand, this was 7.8% higher than the same weekend last year, which is great news, as 2013 has really struggled in the year-over-year comparison. It's going to take a lot more than one good weekend to turn things around.
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May 16th, 2013
The second big summer release comes out this week, Star Trek into Darkness. The film has already opened internationally and has proven to be a bigger hit than its predecessor was, which is good news for its opening weekend. Iron Man 3 will likely take a pretty big hit due to the direct competition, while The Great Gatsby is a bit of a wild card. This weekend last year there were three wide releases, but the best of them was Battleship, which only made $25.53 million during its opening weekend, while all three new releases made a total of $53 million. Star Trek into Darkness should easily make more than that combined. However, The Avengers still dominated the chart last year and it will be that film that will be the biggest challenge in the year-over-year competition.
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May 15th, 2013
Iron Man 3 earned first place for the third weekend in a row, this time pulling in $89.3 million on 9,921 screens in 55 markets for totals of $664.4 million internationally and $949.3 million worldwide. At this pace, the film will have no trouble getting to $1 billion this coming weekend, while it should enter the top ten of all time by the end of the weekend. The film's single best market of the weekend was China, where it added $32.7 million over the week to its running tally, which now sits at $97.2 million.
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May 15th, 2013
Iron Man 3 again earned first place on the Per Theater Chart, but this time it was closer with an average of $17,053. The second best film on the per theater chart was the second best film on the overall chart, The Great Gatsby, which earned an average of $14,168. The best limited release was Stories We Tell with an average of $13,527 in two theaters. It had previously opened in Canada, where it made $360,000. One Track Heart: The Story of Krishna Das earned $11,515 in one theater.
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May 14th, 2013
Iron Man 3 remained on top of the chart, as expected, but the big news of the weekend was The Great Gatsby. The film opened with more than $50 million, which is twice as much as some analysts were expecting and about 50% more than the average. Does this mean 2013 ended its losing streak? Nope. Iron Man 3 missed expectations by a couple of million dollars, while Peeples bombed utterly. This left the overall box office down 27% from last weekend to $158 million. This is 7.5% lower than the same weekend last year. Hopefully Star Trek into Darkness will help end this losing streak next weekend.
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May 12th, 2013
To no-one's great surprise, Iron Man 3 will top the box office chart again this weekend, with a very creditable projected $72.4 million, the 4th-biggest second weekend of all time. The more notable number this weekend, however, is the $51 million projected opening for The Great Gatsby. That's Baz Luhrman's best weekend by a huge margin -- in fact, only Moulin Rouge earned more than that in total domestically (and only by a small margin, with $57 million). It's also Leonardo DiCaprio's second-best weekend, behind Inception. In short, it's a great weekend for a movie that looked like a tough sell.
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May 9th, 2013
Summer got off to a fantastic start last weekend, but sadly it is not going to continue this weekend. Neither The Great Gatsby nor Peeples have blockbuster potential. In fact, the pair combined won't match Iron Man 3's sophomore stint. This is similar to what happened last year, as Dark Shadows got crushed by The Avengers, which broke yet another record. Iron Man 3 won't be able to do the same this year, but we could have better depth. I'm not saying 2013 will win the weekend, but it won't as bad as it has been either.
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May 8th, 2013
Iron Man 3 remained in top spot on the international chart with $174.3 million on 29,160 screens in 72 markets for totals of $502.8 million internationally and $676.9 million worldwide. The film opened with $64.07 million in China, which makes China the film's biggest international market, despite playing there for half as long as most other major markets. The film dominated Russia with $22.82 million on 1,188 screens over the weekend, which was more than five times the nearest competitor. It also opened in first place in Germany, but with a more subdued $6.91 million on 618 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $10.07 million. This is not a great opening, but one market is nothing compared to the monstrous international run so far. Iron Man 3 held on very well in South Korea down just 19% to $13.53 million on 1,388 screens over the weekend for a total of $43.23 million after two. In the U.K., the film made $9.80 million on 558 screens for a two-week total of $38.17 million.
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May 8th, 2013
The winners of our Ironing Out the Details contest were determined and they are...
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May 7th, 2013
After debuting internationally last weekend, Iron Man 3 hit the domestic market this past weekend, and it was just as lucrative. The film earned $15.6 million domestically, making it the best May opening and the second best IMAX weekend of all time. Worldwide, it had the best single weekend in the format's history with $28.6 million on 592 IMAX screens, lifting its total to $39.3 million after just two weeks of release.
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May 7th, 2013
Iron Man 3 dominated the Per Theater Chart earning an average of $40,946 at over 4,000 screens. Two Millenium Films releases were next with The Iceman and What Maisie Knew earning averages of $21,987 and $21,480 respectively. Free the Mind opened with $12,215 in its lone theater.
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May 6th, 2013
There was some good news and some bad news over the weekend. The good new was Iron Man 3, which lived up to our lofty expectations and became the second biggest opening weekend of all time. This one film earned more than the entire box office earned last weekend, leading to an 136% increase week-over-week to $217 million. The bad news is The Avengers, which did even better when it opened this weekend last year. Year-over-year, 2013 suffered a 16% decline. Meanwhile, year-to-date, 2013 is now behind 2012's pace by 11% at $3.13 billion to $3.52 billion.
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May 5th, 2013
As expected, Iron Man 3 has crushed competition (such as it is) this weekend to post a gigantic opening weekend. Disney is predicting a total of $175.3 million over three days, which is even a little better than expectations going in to the weekend and represents the second-biggest opening of all time behind its franchise forebear, The Avengers. This kind of opening will inevitably lead to fairly steep drops over the next few weeks, but a final box office total above $400 million is a good bet at this point (5 out of 7 previous films to open above $150 million hit that mark).
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May 3rd, 2013
There are not a lot of top-notch releases on this week's list, as Iron Man 3 is scaring away all of the competition. Dead Man's Burden is earning great reviews, but it doesn't have a lot of buzz. The Iceman has better buzz, but only good reviews and limited releases generally need great reviews to thrive. What Maisie Knew has great reviews and some strong buzz, so perhaps it will be the biggest hit on this week's list.
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May 3rd, 2013
There are a couple of films opening wide next weekend, The Great Gatsby and Peeples; however, nearly everyone assumes The Great Gatsby will be the bigger of the two films. (It will likely be crushed by Iron Man 3.) It is the clear choice for the target movie for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Great Gatsby.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Star Trek: The Next Generation: Season Three on Blu-ray.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Star Trek: The Next Generation: The Best of Both Worlds on Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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May 2nd, 2013
Summer finally begins. 2013 has been a really bad year so far and after four months, it is 12% or $384 million behind last year's pace. On the one hand, the summer blockbuster season should boost 2013's overall numbers right out of the gate. A lot of people, myself included, think Iron Man 3 will have the second-best opening weekend of all time. On the other hand, the film with the biggest opening weekend of all time was The Avengers, which opened this weekend last year. We can't even look for a counter-programming film or holdovers to help 2013 over the top, as there are no counter-programming films and none of the holdovers are likely to reach $10 million over the weekend. Look for yet another loss in the year-over-year comparison.
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May 2nd, 2013
Iron Man 3 debuted internationally a week ahead of its domestic debut and its was record-breaking. The film earned $198.4 million on 13,633 screens in 45 markets, which is technically more than The Avengers made during its opening weekend. Granted, The Avengers were playing in fewer markets and on fewer screens, while it also had previews that boosted its total opening to $218.2 million, but this is still nothing short of fantastic.
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May 1st, 2013
As April ends and summer begins, we see the 2013 box office on a losing streak. There is some good news, as May should be much, much, much better than April was. Much better. During the five weekends in May, there are nine films opening wide. Of those film, there are seven that at least have a shot at $100 million. And of those seven films, four at least have a shot at $200 million, two have a shot at $300 million, and we might even have a $400 million hit this month. Iron Man 3 should turn out to be the biggest hit of the month, while there are some who think Star Trek: Into Darkness could be a close competitor for that honor. There's also some bad news. The Avengers opened last May and earned more than $600 million. No film opening this month will come close to that figure. There's a chance the top two films opening this month won't match that combined. On the other hand, last year there was a huge drop-off from the biggest hit of the month to the second biggest hit of the month. There were so many high-profile failures last year, that 2013 might actually start winning some weekends in the year-over-year comparison.
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April 30th, 2013
Iron Man 3 has debuted internationally with record numbers, but we will deal with that in detail tomorrow. For today, we will focus on the IMAX results. Since its Wednesday debut, the film has made $7.1 million in 113 IMAX theaters for a phenomenal average of $63,000. This is more than The Avengers made, despite playing on substantially fewer screens. Plus, it has yet to open in China, which has become a huge IMAX market. I'm starting to think Iron Man 3 might be a bigger hit than most analysts are expecting. Is $500 million a possibility?
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April 30th, 2013
My enthusiasm for this column is nearly zero because of Iron Man 3. Final international box office numbers are not in, but studio estimates are not only amazing, but they are record-breaking. This will overshadow anything I have to talk about today. At least Pain and Gain had a better than expected opening. On the other hand, The Big Wedding failed to make an impact. Sadly, there was more bad news than good news and the overall box office fell 16% to $92 million. This was 17% lower than the same weekend last year, while the year-to-date numbers got just a little bit weaker. At the moment, 2013 is 12% behind 2012's pace at $2.89 billion to $3.27 billion. Worse still, the year-over-year comparisons are about to run into The Avengers, so unless Iron Man 3 is record-breaking, the year-over-year comparison is going to get worse before it gets better.
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April 28th, 2013
With the Summer movie season effectively starting with the first weekend of May these days, the last weekend of April is the last chance for lesser-budgeted movies to grab some of the spotlight. This year, the movie that can hold its head up highest, at least for a few days, is Pain & Gain, which is projected to open in first place with a respectable $20 million, just $6 million less than its reported production budget. Another film that will post an excellent start is Mud, which will most likely just miss out on the top 10, but will pull in about $2.2 million from just 363 theaters for Roadside Attractions, and end with a theater average of $6,000 -- basically the same as Pain & Gain. Both films will be wiped out by Iron Man 3 when it opens on Thursday. The Summer's first behemoth has already picked up $195.3 million internationally.
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April 25th, 2013
May finally begins, which is good news for a year that has struggled at the box office. (At least it would normally be good news, except last year was record-breaking.) Iron Man 3 is the only film opening wide and given the buzz and the reviews, it should be a monster hit. It is the only choice for the target movie for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Iron Man 3.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Broken City on Blu-ray.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Broken City on Blu-ray.
Broken City Blu-ray Special Features include:
- Alternate Ending
- Five Deleted / Extended Scenes
- Putting It All Together Documentary – A Behind-the-Scenes look including Cast Profiles, Anatomy of a Thriller, a “Black List” script and more
Broken City releases on Blu-ray and DVD April 30 and I hope to get a screener for a full review soon.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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