May 13th, 2014
It's a weird week on the home market. There are more first-run releases on this week's list than last week, as well as some TV on DVD releases and others. That said, it still feels very shallow. Even coming up with a list of ten new releases will include some filler. According to Amazon.com, I, Frankenstein is the biggest selling new release of the week. However, Her is the best new release of the week and the Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week.
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February 20th, 2014
There are two wide releases debuting this week, Pompeii and 3 Days to Kill. Neither film were expected to be big hits and I originally predicted $35 million for both films. Now it seems low expectations have dropped even further. Neither film has a shot at first place, which should come as no surprise, but now it looks like the two films will be battling for fifth place. The LEGO Movie will remain supreme over the weekend and will not only crush the competition this week, but will crush the competition from last year as well. Last year the two new releases were Snitch and Dark Skies, but the box office was led by Identity Thief. There's a slim chance The LEGO Movie will earn more than those three films earned combined (roughly $35 million). Even on the low end, it will earn more than the top two films earned last year. 2014 will continue to dominate 2013 in the year-over-year comparison.
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February 5th, 2014
It's Chinese New Year and the international box office was led by two Chinese films. The Monkey King earned first place with $46 million in 7 markets for a total opening of $54 million. Like most Chinese films, we don't have breakdowns of individual markets.
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February 3rd, 2014
Super Bowl turned into a blow-out, but still earned a record television audience. This explains why the overall box office numbers were down compared to last weekend. That said, there were some films that did well, including Ride Along, which completed the threepeat and by this time next week with be at over $100 million. On the other hand, the new releases really struggled. That Awkward Moment only managed third place, while Labor Day barely avoided the Mendoza Line. Week-over-week, the overall box office fell 26% to $86 million. Compared to last year, the box office also fell, but by only 3%. That said, 2014 is still ahead of 2013 by 6% at $943 million to $887 million, so the market is still healthy.
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January 29th, 2014
The Wolf of Wall Street remained in first place with $35.27 million on 5,472 screens in 40 markets for an international total of $125.49 million. This is already substantially more than the film has pulled in domestically, plus it has a number of major market debuts ahead. This past weekend, the film opened in first place in Australia with $4.46 million on 325 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.68 million. Meanwhile, it remained in first place in the U.K. with $5.95 million on 506 screens over the weekend for a total of $17.94 million after two weeks of release. It had a very similar weekend at the box office in Germany with $5.49 million on 597 screens, while it is $14.11 million in that market, also after two weeks of release.
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January 28th, 2014
The winners of our Frankenprize contest were determined and they are...
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January 27th, 2014
I, Frankenstein died at the box office, as it missed the top five entirely. This gave Ride Along an easy road to first place over the weekend. Meanwhile, the rest of the top five all matched expectations, or came within a rounding error of doing so. This helped the overall box office somewhat. It was still a post-holiday frame and the total box office fell 34% to $117 million, but it could have been worse. Compared to last year, the overall box office was 4% higher, which is good news early in the year. 2014 has extended its lead over 2013 to 9% at $823 million to $754 million.
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January 26th, 2014
After tracking poorly for months, Lionsgate's I, Frankenstein arrived in theaters this weekend with a disappointing projected $8.275 million, according to the distributor, enough for only 6th place on a box office chart that's a jumble of Oscar hopefuls and less ambitious January fare. Ride Along tops the list with $21.1 million projected for the weekend by Universal, which also lays claim to this weekend's number two spot with Lone Survivor's $12.6 million.
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January 23rd, 2014
After a record-breaking weekend, it's a letdown this weekend. I, Frankenstein is the only wide release of the week and there's very little chance it will be a major hit at the box office. It might overtake Ride Along for top spot, but I wouldn't bet on it. Last year Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters was the biggest release of the week earning $19.69 million over the weekend, while it and Mama were the only two films to earn more than $10 million. We should have four films earning more than $10 million over the weekend, so 2014 should win in the year-over-year comparison.
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January 17th, 2014
There is only one new wide release debuting next weekend, I, Frankenstein, which is debuting in an estimated 2,700 theaters. Since it is the only new wide release, it is clearly the only choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for I, Frankenstein. It's good to get the target film out of the way quickly, because the prizes are a little more complicated. I've been reviewing DVDs and Blu-rays for nearly a decade now and in that time I've amassed more than 60 banker boxes of movies and TV on DVD releases. I have to get rid of some of them. Late last year we had a contest with a surprise prize and it was actually a little more popular than the average, so we are going to do that again. Each winner will win either a random TV on DVD full season set (or volume, depending on how the set was sold), or two movies, or three single-disc TV on DVD releases (usually kids shows). Because the prize is a combination of unrelated releases, it's a Frankenprize!
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win the first random prize pack.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win the second random prize pack.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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January 1st, 2014
It's the first month of the new year, but the biggest hit might be a film released in December. Last month ended on a slow note with all five Christmas day releases failing to become hits, some more than others. (It's a little too soon to tell if The Wolf of Wall Street or The Secret Life of Walter Mitty will do well enough to break even any time soon, but neither is a serious hit.) There are still some December releases that will likely remain on the charts through the opening weekends of January, while there are some films that opened in limited release last month with a scheduled wide release this month. Of the purely January releases, I would guess Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit will be the biggest hit. Even then, it won't live up to the previous films in the franchise, even if you don't take inflation into account. Most of the rest of the new releases will be happy if they can become midlevel hits. Last January was led by Mama, which earned more than $70 million. I think Shadow Recruit will top that figure at the box office, while there are a similar number of likely box office bombs opening this year as there were last year. 2014 could start out ahead of 2013's pace, but it likely won't be a huge difference either way.
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