May 24th, 2016
There are not a lot of first-run releases on this week's list and none that are contenders for Pick of the Week. That's not to say there are no contenders, but they come from catalog releases, TV on DVD, etc. Buster Keaton: The Shorts Collection 1917-1923 on Blu-ray tops that list. However, I'm going with Mustang on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack as the Pick of the Week. The screener arrived late, but it was worth it.
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February 23rd, 2016
Deadpool held onto first place with $56.47 million over the weekend, while the best new release, Risen, was well back in third place with $11.80 million. It's not surprising the overall box office fell this weekend when compared to the last weekend. The overall box office fell 41% to $142 million, which is barely more than what Deadpool alone earned last weekend. This was still 19% more than this weekend last year, when Fifty Shades of Grey fell 74%. 2016's year-to-date lead roughly doubled to 3.5% at $1.63 billion to $1.57 billion.
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February 17th, 2016
Most people thought Deadpool would be a big hit over the weekend. I didn't see a single prediction that said it would be this big. It earned $132.43 million over the three-day weekend, which is more than enough to cover its entire production budget and a healthy chunk of its advertising budget. ... Or at least its initial advertising budget. Needless to say, there is already a sequel in the works. How to be Single had a very solid opening, while Zoolander 2 will need to become a hit on the home market in order to break even. The overall box office rose 150% from last weekend to $239 million over three days. Wow. This weekend last year, Fifty Shades of Grey debuted. Deadpool made almost as much in the four days it was in theaters than Fifty Shades of Grey made in total. It goes without saying that 2016 won the year-over-year comparison. Its 11% difference is impressive. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $1.44 billion, which is 1.9% more than 2015's running tally at the same stage.
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February 14th, 2016
This weekend last year, Fifty Shades of Grey broke one of the longest-standing records in the business by posting a $85.2 million opening weekend, besting the record for biggest weekend in February that had been held by The Passion of the Christ since 2004. Fifty Shades and, in 2014, The LEGO Movie dispelled the myth that big movies couldn’t open in February, and this year Deadpool is single-handedly making President’s Day weekend look like a Summer holiday weekend with an opening projected by Fox at $135 million for the Friday–Sunday period and $150 million over four days.
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February 13th, 2016
Sometimes a movie opens and it takes a while to figure out if it was a financial success or not. Deadpool is not one of those movies. Not only did its previews break a couple of records, it crushed a few more on Friday. Its opening day haul of $47.5 million is a new record for the biggest day in February, topping Fifty Shades of Grey by just over $10 million. It is also the biggest opening day for an R-rated film, topping The Maxtrix Reloaded for that record. It likely won’t have as strong legs as that film, despite its reviews, because the Fanboy Effect is strong with this movie. That said, the film cost just $58 million to make, so unless it cost more than that to advertise, it will break even just on its domestic box office.
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February 12th, 2016
Deadpool set two records for biggest February previews and biggest previews for an R-rated film with $12.7 million. ... I think it is safe to assume Deadpool 2 is on its way. The studio was expecting between $60 million and $65 million over the four-day weekend, but studios tend to downplay expectations so they can claim victory, even if the film is a little weaker than anticipated. With the record previews, I think it is safe to say it will top those expectations and even our $75 million prediction seems low.
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February 11th, 2016
It's Valentine's Day weekend and Presidents Day long weekend, so the box office should be very robust, at least compared to last weekend. Deadpool has the best reviews and the best buzz and should have no trouble earning first place at the box office. Zoolander 2 is earning weak reviews, but nostalgia could help during its opening weekend. Finally there's How to be Single, which is a Romantic Comedy. Any romantic film should do well on Valentine's Day, even one earning mixed reviews. This weekend last year, Fifty Shades of Grey came out, which is a movie my mind keeps trying to forget happened. It earned just over $85 million during its opening weekend, but less than that during the rest of its run. Deadpool won't open as fast, but it very likely won't collapse next weekend either. 2016 will lose in the year-over-year comparison in the short run, but perhaps by Monday, the tide will turn.
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February 1st, 2016
As expected, January was dominated by holdovers with Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Revenant leading the way. That's not to say there were no new releases that did well, as Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3 were hits with moviegoers. Looking forward, there is only one film that looks like a sure hit, Deadpool. There's a slim chance it could be a surprise $200 million hit. There's a much better chance it will be the only $100 million hit. Conversely, last February started with a $100 million hit coming out, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, while there were two other $100 million movies to come out that month, Fifty Shades of Grey and Kingsman: The Secret Service. Looks like 2016 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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