December 4th, 2018
It’s not a bad week when it comes to the home market. The biggest release is Mission: Impossible—Fallout and while I didn’t like it as much as most critics, the Blu-ray / 4K Ultra HD Combo Packs are still worth picking up. There were also a trio of releases that were contenders for Pick of the Week, all of which were TV on DVD release: The Handmaid’s Tale: Season Two, Love, Chunibyo & Other Delusions: Take On Me, and Westworld: Season Two: The Door. In the end, it came down to a roll of the dice, with The Handmaid’s Tale coming out on top.
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December 4th, 2018
The screener for The Happytime Murders arrived technically on time, but late enough that I was barely able to get the review finished on Tuesday. The film failed to connect with audiences or with critics. Is it as bad as its Tomatometer Score would indicate? Or should more people have watched it in theaters.
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November 20th, 2018
This Friday is Black Friday, one of the biggest shopping days of the year. However, while there will be tons of sales, DVDs and Blu-rays that come out on Tuesday tend not to be part of the sales, because they have only been out for a few days. Because of this, it is usually a slow week on the home market. This is certainly true this year, as there’s only one significant first-run release, Crazy Rich Asians (Buy from Amazon). On the positive side, it is a pick of the week contender. Its only competition for that title is the Criterion Collection release for Some Like it Hot (Buy from Amazon). It was close, but in the end I went with Crazy Rich Asians. On a side note, both are lucky they are in competition for Pick of the Week, as it was going to be K-ON Complete Collection Premium Box Set, but it got pushed back from this week till February. I pre-ordered it in July and I’ve been waiting a long, long time for this box set.
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September 5th, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians came close enough to our predictions over the weekend that I’m willing to call it a victory. The only other film to earn more than $10 million over the three-date weekend was The Meg. This wasn’t enough to help the overall box office grow, but the overall box office only fell 3.6% when compared to last weekend earning $99 million. It is a little disappointing to drop below the $100 million mark, but it could have been much worse. Speaking of much worse, this weekend last year, the overall box office was just $76 million, meaning 2018 improved on the three-day mark by 29% and stretched its year-to-date lead. 2018 now sits 10.6% or $790 million ahead of 2017 at $8.22 billion to $7.43 million. The lead won’t remain this large for long, not with It’s opening on the horizon. That said, it would take a spectacular collapse for 2018 to completely lose this lead.
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August 28th, 2018
Summer officially ends next weekend with Labor Day, but Crazy Rich Asians is keeping the summer going with a sophomore stint of $24.80 million over the weekend. This is nearly twice as much as the second place film, The Meg. Meanwhile, the only true wide release of the week, The Happytime Murders, missed low end expectations with $9.53 million. The overall box office is down 21% from last weekend to just $103 million. That’s a sharp decline, but not uncommon for this time of year. More importantly, it was 49% more than the same weekend last year. That’s not as impressive as it seems, as this weekend last year one of the worst weekends in the past decade. Year-to-date, 2018 extended its lead to 10.1% or $740 million at $8.05 billion to $7.19 billion. On the down side, it won’t be long before 2017 really starts to eat into that lead.
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August 26th, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians led the way over the weekend with $25.01 million for a two-week total of $76.82 million. This is way more than expected and actually in line with our opening weekend prediction. Its sophomore stint decline was just a 6% from its opening three-day weekend; it’s just a 29% decline from its opening five-day weekend. On the downside, this is such an amazing hold that it is hard for analysts to figure out where it will go from here. We can safely say it will continue to pull in millions of dollars for weeks to come, but we don’t know if it will soar past $150 million or not. If it has a more normal decline next week, we will be able to be more sure. Regardless of what it does over the rest of its domestic run or how well it performs internationally, it will be a massively profitable movie and one of Warner Bros.’ biggest hits of the year.
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August 25th, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians is this year’s The Hitman’s Bodyguard, at least in terms of legs. The film fell just 4% from its opening Friday earning $7.0 million on this Friday. The film was a Wednesday opening, so it likely won’t perform better on Saturday compared to last weekend, but the film will still earn about $23 million over the weekend. The book Crazy Rich Asians is based on is the first in a trilogy and I would be amazed if Warner Bros. hasn’t already begun work on the next two installments.
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August 24th, 2018
The Happytime Murders only managed $950,000 during its Thursday previews. I was really expecting a little more than $1 million during previews. This is close enough that matching our $13 million prediction is still possible, but $12 million is more likely. Its also means Crazy Rich Asians will have no problem repeating on top of the box office chart. In fact, it appears to be headed for an amazing sophomore stint, but more on that tomorrow.
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August 23rd, 2018
Summer is winding down and there are only one and a half wide releases this week. The Happytime Murders is a high-concept, lowbrow comedy that is probably too out there to find an audience. Meanwhile, A.X.L. is opening in less than 2,000 theaters and tracking has it opening below the Mendoza Line. This does mean Crazy Rich Asians has a real shot at repeating on top of the box office chart. This weekend last year, The Hitman’s Bodyguard was the only film to earn more than $10 million. This year, we should have two or three films do the same and 2018 should easily win in the year-over-year chart.
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August 1st, 2018
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Overall, July was a a little weaker than expected. Ant-Man and the Wasp appears to be on pace for $200 million, while it is too soon to tell if Mission: Impossible—Fallout will also get there. That said, 2018 is still ahead of 2017 by $550 million, so the month of July was a success in that regard. As for August, there’s only one movie that is expected to earn $100 million, Christopher Robin, and maybe a few others that could hit $50 million. It’s a rather sad slate of movies. Fortunately, last August was even worse, so 2018 should at least maintain its lead. Maybe we can get lucky and come away with a $600 million lead by the end of the month.
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