February 23rd, 2016
It's not a great week on the home market. The Good Dinosaur is the biggest release this week, but it is the only wide release of note. Spotlight started out in limited release, but while it expanded significantly, it never expanded truly wide. As for the Pick of the Week, I'm going with the Bogart / Bacall Blu-ray Double-Shot: The Big Sleep and Key Largo.
On a side note, it is another short list this week, because Amazon continues to be run by morons. I tried to get help from chat, but that wasn't very successful. I "talked" to four people without getting an answer. Two of which logged in and then logged out without saying a thing. One logged in, introduced themselves, then logged out when I asked a question. I tried through e-mail, but a week later and no reply. I have a phone number for press and I will try that once the Oscars are over and I'm not overwhelmed with work.
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February 22nd, 2016
The Good Dinosaur looks like it will be the first Pixar film to lose money. It cost nearly $200 million to make, while there were reports that the advertising budget was $150 million worldwide. It needed to make over $500 million worldwide to have a shot at breaking even any time soon. It made barely more than $300 million, which wasn't enough to pay for its reported advertising budget. Is it as bad as its box office numbers would suggest? Or is there a reason this film failed to connect with audiences besides quality?
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January 13th, 2016
Last weekend, Star Wars: The Force Awakens was the only Hollywood film in the top five on the International Chart. This week, there were four Hollywood titles in the top five, again led by The Force Awakens. The film earned $104.3 million over the weekend for a total of $921.4 million internationally and $1.734 billion worldwide. It is now the biggest release of 2015 worldwide, but it is fourth on the yearly international chart. This past weekend, the film opened in first place in China with $53.17 million, but that was only over two days. This includes a record Saturday opening of $32.16 million. Meanwhile, the film has climbed into first place on the all-time chart in the U.K. with $162.03 million, putting it ahead of Skyfall.
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January 4th, 2016
As expected, Star Wars: The Force Awakens dominated the weekend box office earning $90.24 million, breaking several records along the way. However, it did fall 40% over the weekend, which is a lot for this time of year. It appears The Force Awakens is acting more like a typical blockbuster hit and less like the typically leggy December release. That said, I don't think Disney is disappointed with the results so far. On the other hand, The Hateful Eight got off to a disappointing start earning third place with just a fraction of Django Unchained's opening weekend. The overall box office was down from last week, but was still an incredible $219 million. This was 26% lower than last week, but 41% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date is a little less useful, as 2016 is only 3 days old, but it is 27% higher than 2015 was after the first weekend. This is even more impressive, as 2015 had an extra day before the weekend.
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December 23rd, 2015
As expected, not opening in China cost Star Wars: The Force Awakens the international opening weekend record, as it earned $281 million, which is behind Jurassic World’s opening international weekend of $316.1 million. However, The Force Awakens did set the worldwide opening record with $529 million, just ahead of Jurassic World’s mark of $525 million. This is especially impressive, as Jurassic World opened with just over $100 million in China. Even a slower than expected opening in China would have given The Force Awakens the first $600 million global opening.
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December 16th, 2015
Surprise You’ll Never Think Of: Journey To The West took $17.54 million over four days, giving it first place in both China and internationally. Journey To The West is one of the most popular Chinese stories ever written and is like the Hamlet of Chinese literature. Hamlet has over 50 feature-length film adaptations and Journey To The West is quickly catching up to that number.
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December 14th, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 remained in first place for the fourth weekend in a row, which is terrible news for the box office. A film repeating on top happens a lot, but to get to four weeks in a row, it means the new releases have been particularly weak. That was the case this week, as In the Heart of the Sea had to settle for second place with well below expectations. Overall, the box office fell 21% from last weekend to $78 million. This is 7.2% lower than the same weekend last year. Had In the Heart of the Sea merely matched predictions, then 2015 would have won in the year-over-year competition. Year-to-date, 2015 has earned $9.79 billion, putting it almost exactly $400 million ahead of last year's pace.
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December 10th, 2015
The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning and we are already beginning to see a trend for this year's Awards Season. For the most part, the same films are coming up over and over again. Carol led the way with five awards, while there was a three-way tie for second place with The Big Short, The Revenant and Steve Jobs each picking up four.
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December 10th, 2015
There's only one wide release this week, In the Heart of the Sea, although some sources still have Legend expanding nationwide. Of course, expanding nationwide doesn't mean the same thing as expanding truly wide. Because In the Heart of the Sea doesn't have any real competition this weekend, it is widely expected to earn first place, but it isn't expected to be a smash hit. It is very unlikely it will do as well as last year's number one film, Exodus: Gods and Kings. The depth is a little better this year, but 2015 will still likely struggle to match 2014 in the year-over-year comparison.
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December 9th, 2015
It was a milestone weekend for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, as it crossed the $500 million mark worldwide. Over the weekend, the film pulled in $32.4 million in 93 markets for totals of $296.8 million internationally and $524.2 million worldwide. Its biggest market of the weekend was Germany, where it pulled in $4.77 million on 1,127 screens for a three-week total of $30.53 million. On the other hand, its biggest market overall has been the U.K., where it has made $35.21 million, including $3.38 million in 539 theaters this past weekend. There are rumors that Lionsgate are working on prequels for this franchise. Not sure that's a good idea.
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December 6th, 2015
Krampus is providing the industry with some surprise post-Thanksgiving, pre-Holiday cheer this weekend, with an opening well ahead of expectations amongst a crowd of slightly disappointing results. Mockingjay, Part 2 will top the chart with $18.6 million, which is off a surprisingly steep 64%. With the film expected to hit $20 million or so this weekend, that’s a disappointment, and makes a final total of $300 million look just out of reach. The Good Dinosaur was expected to have the legs of a Pixar movie, and is instead looking more like a run-of-the-mill high-budget animated film, so instead of topping $20 million, it is down 60% to $15.5 million for the weekend. That left an opening for Krampus, which will take second spot overall with a $16-million debut.
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December 5th, 2015
2015 has had some record highs, but plenty of record lows as well. The weekend after Thanksgiving is historically one of the low points of the year. However, this year it is doing rather well thanks to a surprisingly fast start by Krampus. Don't get me wrong. This isn’t going to be a monster hit, and probably not even a midlevel one. However, it earned $6.01 million on Friday, which is enough for first place and excellent for this time of year. With a start like this and overall positive reviews, it might top $15 million during its opening weekend, which is more that it is estimated to have cost.
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December 3rd, 2015
The weekend after Thanksgiving is historically a really bad time of the year at the box office. This year there is only one wide release risking it, Krampus. However, this is one more wide release than we had this week last year. There is also a semi-wide release coming out, The Letter, but its reviews are terrible and its box office chances might be even worse. This should give The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 an easy path to first place. In fact, the top three will likely remain the same as last weekend. Fortunately, the holdovers this year are stronger than the holdovers last year, so 2015 should win in the year-over-year comparison.
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December 2nd, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 remained in first place with $62.0 million in 93 markets for totals of $242.4 million internationally and $440.9 million worldwide. The film's only major market opening came from Spain where it had to settle for second place with a total opening of $4.52 million on 449 screens. Its biggest market overall is the U.K. where it pulled in $6.78 million in 579 theaters over the weekend for a total of $28.88 million after two weeks of release. At this pace, the film will finish with between $600 million and $700 million, which is amazing, but below average for the Hunger Games franchise.
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December 2nd, 2015
The winners of our All in Good Fun contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Good Dinosaur opening weekend were...
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December 1st, 2015
Carol remained in first place on the per theater chart with an average of $49,443 in four theaters. This is 22% lower than the film's opening weekend average, which isn't bad for a limited release. The Danish Girl opened in a close second place with $46,830, also in four theaters. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 earned first place on the overall chart and third place on the per theater chart with an average of $12,456. Janis: Little Girl Blue earned an average of $10,931 in two theaters, which is great for a documentary. The second wide release in the $10,000 club was The Good Dinosaur with an average of $10,444.
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November 29th, 2015
The combined forces of a 50% weekend-to-weekend decline at the box office and two strong rivals wasn’t enough to knock The Hunger Games: Mockingjay—Part 2 off its perch at the top of the box office chart this Thanksgiving. With a three-day total of $51.6 million (and $75.8 million over five), the franchise-capper will finish the holiday just shy of $200 million at the domestic box office. With a reported $242.4 million overseas, the film is hurrying towards $500 million worldwide, and sits at $440.7 million as of Sunday evening.
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November 28th, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 has fallen off Part 1’s pace with a Friday haul of $21.25 million. On the positive side, it has $167.96 million after just 8 days of release and should get to $200 million over the weekend. Its theater average is strong enough that it should remain in wide release, even after Star Wars: The Force Awakens opens.
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November 27th, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 led the daily box office on Thursday with $10.4 million, which is 25% lower than Wednesday's number. This is nearly identical to Part 1's decline at the same point in its run, so Friday's numbers will decide if Part 2 is catching up, or if it is falling away.
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November 26th, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 led the way on Wednesday with $13.8 million. That's just 5.6% lower than Part 1's daily box office at this point in its run, compared to a 16% shortfall during its opening weekend. This is good news for the film's legs and it means it might still top its predecessor's final number. Might.
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November 25th, 2015
It appears The Good Dinosaur will win the box office race this weekend with The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 being pushed into second place. Creed should have the best opening weekend of the franchise. Meanwhile, Victor Frankenstein is just hoping for a spot in the top five. I don't think it will get there. Both new releases from last year failed to meet expectations, so that gives 2015 a real shot at coming out on top of the year-over-year comparison.
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November 25th, 2015
Creed set a record last night with $1.4 million in previews. That's the biggest box office for Tuesday night previews before the Thanksgiving holiday. Before you get too excited, there are simply not enough similar releases to judge this result or use it to predict the film’s opening weekend. It’s better than the $1.0 million Horrible Bosses 2 managed last year, but less than Dumb and Dumber To’s $1.6 million from earlier that month. Hopefully Creed’s reviews will translate into positive word-of-mouth and that will help it over the weekend.
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November 24th, 2015
The winners of our Ultimate Hunger contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 opening weekend were...
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November 20th, 2015
Next week, there are three wide releases, but only one of them, The Good Dinosaur, is expected to be a serious hit. That makes it easy to pick a target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Good Dinosaur. Remember, while the movie opens on the Wednesday, we are only concerned with the Friday through Sunday weekend box office result.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Shaun the Sheep on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Shaun the Sheep on DVD.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final copy of Shaun the Sheep on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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November 1st, 2015
October has come to an end and everyone should be happy about that. Except for The Martian, there were no serious hits that opened last month. There were more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Fortunately, October of last year wasn't spectacular either, so 2015 maintains a healthy lead over 2014. Even more fortunately, November looks fantastic. There are four films that have the potential to earn $200 million or more. The biggest of these is the final Hunger Games movie, which should reach $400 million. Spectre has a real shot at $300 million and could be the biggest hit in the franchise. Meanwhile, nearly every November there's an animated kids movie that becomes a monster hit. This year, The Peanuts Movie and The Good Dinosaur are both aiming for that box office milestone. The last time we didn't have a family film that earned at least $100 million in November was 2011 and that's because there were four family films that opened in the final two weeks of the month and that much competition meant they cannibalized each other. Both of these has a shot at $200 million and if neither of them reached $200 million, I would be shocked. Meanwhile, last November was a good month at the top with three monster hits: The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1, Big Hero 6, and Interstellar. However, after those three films, there were not much positive to talk about. It really looks like 2015 will match 2014 at the top, plus it could have better depth. I might be a little too optimistic, but I think November is going to be a great month at the box office.
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