February 3rd, 2014
It's another slow week on the home market. There are five or so first run releases, but the biggest box office was earned by Free Birds, which earned $55 million. Fortunately, while there are no box office hits, there are some high quality releases, led by Dallas Buyers Club. Unfortunately, the DVD and Blu-ray Combo Pack has so few extras that I'm convinced a special edition is on its way, so it isn't a Pick of the Week contender. So what are the Pick of the Week contenders this week? First there's Cutie and the Boxer on DVD or Blu-ray. Second there's ... Cutie and the Boxer is the Pick of the Week.
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November 25th, 2013
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire easily won first place at the box office this past weekend and it even broke the record for biggest opening weekend in November. Even so, its opening seems a little disappointing, because some analysts were predicting an opening of more than $180 million. The overall box office was still huge at $226 million. This was nearly $100 million or 80% more than last weekend. This was also higher than the same weekend last year by 9%. Unfortunately, 2013 is still behind 2012 by 1.4% at $9.28 billion to $9.41 billion.
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November 24th, 2013
As expected, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire topped Delivery Man to win at the box office this weekend. OK, topped is perhaps an understatement when the gap between the two movies is about $150 million. Catching Fire will easily record the biggest November weekend of all time, topping The Twilight Saga: New Moon. It's also heading towards the 4th-biggest weekend of all time, per Lionsgate's Sunday estimate, although there's a good chance it'll end up just behind The Dark Knight Rises' $160.8 million from last year. It will definitely end behind Iron Man 3's $174 million from earlier this year, but continued big earnings for Catching Fire over Thanksgiving means that this year's box office championship race is about to get interesting.
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November 22nd, 2013
The weekend before Thanksgiving is one of the best weekends of the year to release a monster hit, and this year we get The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. If Catching Fire doesn't break the record for biggest opening weekend in November, it will be seen as a huge shock. It has a chance at topping Iron Man 3's opening weekend and securing top spot for the year. Catching Fire isn't the only film opening wide this weekend, but to call Delivery Man counter-programing is an understatement. It might not crack $10 million, but that will still be enough to earn a spot in the top five. This weekend last year was the Thanksgiving long weekend, so it is a little hard to compare the two and judge which one is stronger. Catching Fire should easily earn more than the top five did over the three-day weekend, perhaps even more than the top six or seven earned, but the real test will come next weekend when we can compare this Thanksgiving to last year's.
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November 19th, 2013
As expected, Thor: The Dark World led the way on the weekend box office chart. However, The Best Man Holiday was surprisingly strong and helped soften the blow at the overall box office. Even so, the box office was down 26% from the last weekend at $125 million. A 26% drop-off is bad, but the year-over-year comparison was even worse. So much worse. Compared to this weekend last year when The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 debut, the box office was down almost exactly 50%. And with that, 2013 is no longer ahead of 2012's pace. It was bound to happen with the weak box office numbers recently. Granted, 2013 is only behind by 0.4% at $9.02 billion to $9.06 and one really good weekend could reverse that situation. In fact, the opening of The Hunger Games: Catching Fire this coming weekend could reverse that situation, but 2013 will be neck-and-neck with 2012 from here on out, instead of the solid leads it held for much of the year.
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November 14th, 2013
Last weekend, Thor: The Dark World made its debut. Next weekend, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire opens up. With these two monster hits opening so close together, it comes as no surprise that this weekend there are not a lot of new releases. In fact, we only have The Best Man Holiday as a wide release. It won't be able to score top spot, but the lack of direct competition should help it score a solid second place. On the down side, this weekend last year The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 opened with $141.07 million, which is very likely more than the entire box office will make this season.
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November 11th, 2013
Thor: The Dark World matched expectations nearly perfectly and dominated the box office over the weekend. In fact, it earned more than the rest of the box office pulled in combined. This helped the overall box office rise 32% from last weekend reaching $167 million. Unfortunately, Thor couldn't match Skyfall's opening weekend and the total box office was 3% lower than the same weekend last year. 2013 is still ahead of 2012, but by 0.9% at $8.85 million to $8.77 million. Since there is only one new release next weekend, and it isn't a prime release, we will likely see another year-over-year loss. Fortunately, 2013 should still stay ahead of 2012 and Catching Fire should end 2013's losing streak in a big way.
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November 10th, 2013
Thor: The Dark World gets the holiday season off to a start this weekend with a powerful display at the box office. Disney is pegging its opening weekend at $86.8 million, which will be a healthy 30% boost from the debut of the first film in the franchise and also one of the ten biggest weekends in November. It's the first film in the Avengers über-franchise to open outside of the May-July Summer season, but that certainly doesn't seemed to have harmed it at the box office, and it won't have much competition until Catching Fire opens in a couple of weeks' time. All said, it looks a virtual certainty to top the box office performance of the original.
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November 8th, 2013
Thor: The Dark World will easily win the race for the top of the box office this weekend. It really has no competition for top spot, and only token competition as far as new releases are concerned. About Time is the only other new wide release, and quite frankly, I should add quotes around both "new" and "wide", as it opened in limited release last weekend, will expand to 1,400 theaters this weekend and it likely won't reach the top five. It will be interesting to see if Ender's Game will hold up next to the competition from Thor, but that seems unlikely. Thor: The Dark World could do well when compared to last year's number one film, Skyfall, but 2013 just doesn't have the depth to thrive, so 2013 will lose again in the year-over-year comparison.
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November 6th, 2013
As anticipated, Ender's Game won the weekend race with ease and no individual film truly bombed. That said, the overall effort was still lacking. Compared to last weekend, the overall box office was up 23% to $127 million, which is nice to see. However, and more importantly, this was 8% lower than the same weekend last year, thus ending 2013's winning streak at one weekend. 2013 is still ahead of 2012's pace, but by a shrinking margin. Currently, this year is ahead of last year by less than 0.5% at $8.66 billion to $8.62 billion. It wouldn't take much to 2013 to lose the lead at this point, and this might happen sometime during this month. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire should end any losing streak when it is released, but perhaps not before 2013 falls behind 2012's pace.
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November 3rd, 2013
As expected, Ender's Game will comfortably win this weekend's box office race with an opening in the vicinity of $28 million. That's a healthy figure, but barely gets it into the top 100 openings in November and it'll be footnote by the time Thor and The Hunger Games have rolled out in a few week's time. It seems well short of what would be needed for a sequel to be greenlit. Free Birds will also not enjoy a theatrical sequel (although direct-to-video spin-offs seem likely) as it will open with around $16 million, but CBS Films is very happy with the $16 million debut of Last Vegas, which will benefit from an older demographic in the weeks to come.
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November 1st, 2013
October ended on a winning note, but it was the only time the entire month that 2013 topped 2012 in the year-over-year comparison. This is quite shocking, as Gravity crushed expectations with more than $200 million and counting. Even with that surprise monster hit, the month still couldn't keep pace with last year. Compared to October, November looks a lot better with three films that could be monster hits: Frozen, Thor: The Dark World, and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. On the other hand, those are the only three movies with a 50/50 chance or better to top $100 million compared, while there were seven films that reached that milestone last November. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire should make more than last year's number one film, Skyfall, but the depth last year could prove too much to deal with. 2013 might dip below last year's pace sometime during the month, but hopefully it won't stay there too long.
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October 31st, 2013
November begins with three wide releases of varying quality. Ender's Game is the only one earning overall positive reviews and it is the only one with a real shot at becoming anything more than a midlevel hit. To call Free Birds a second-tier animated family film is being very generous. Its reviews might dip into the single-digit level. Finally, there's Last Vegas, which is flying under the radar for most moviegoers. It is unlikely any of them will become a breakout hit. It is nearly certain that none will match last year's number one film, Wreck-It Ralph. November is going to start off on a losing note.
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October 25th, 2013
There are three wide releases, but only two of them have any chance of becoming more than a midlevel hit. Free Birds is a digitally animated family film that has a very timely release, but it is also a second-tier CG animated film. Ender's Game is a $110 million film based on a book aimed at young adults. It is yet another film trying to tap into the vacuum left behind by Harry Potter. I don't think either of them will be big hits, but one of them has to be the target film. I think Free Birds will have better legs, but that Ender's Game will have a better opening. As such, it is the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Ender's Game.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), regardless if they go over or not, will win a copy of The Conjuring on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
To celebrate, we have Five Things to know about The Conjuring, in GIF form, starting with...
1) The Conjuring is directed by the acclaimed James Wan, the Australian-born director of the fright-fests Insidious and the Saw series. His Twitter handle is @CreepyPuppet. Say no more.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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