December 14th, 2015
It is a strange week on the home market, as there are four first-run releases coming out, all of which were sequels. That's a lot. However, only one of them wasn't a box office disappointment, Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation. Additionally, there's very little depth here. On the plus side, it did give me an excuse to talk about some good releases that might otherwise have fallen between the cracks, like the Top Spin DVD. That said, the Rogue Nation Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week.
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September 3rd, 2015
Terminator Genisys remained in first place with $23.6 million in 26 markets over the weekend for totals of $320.1 million internationally and $409.5 million worldwide. In China, the film pulled in $23.4 million over the weekend for an eight-day total of $85.15 million in that market. It is going to hit the century mark in that market, while its overall worldwide number is high enough to break even.
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August 27th, 2015
Terminator Genisys earned $26.97 million on Sunday in China. That was enough for first place in that market over the entire weekend. In fact, that was enough for first place internationally. Adding in one holdover market, and the movie made $27.4 million in 2 markets for totals of $264.0 million internationally and $353.1 million worldwide. One final note, China is already the film's biggest single market and it could save the franchise and make another installment likely.
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August 21st, 2015
After last week's reprieve, summer truly ends this week. There are three wide releases coming out, none of which are expected to become even midlevel hits. Also, none of them are earning overall positive reviews. The biggest movie is Sinister 2, which is expected to do well enough to earn a profit, mostly thanks to its very low production budget. American Ultra is the best in terms of Tomatometer Score—by a huge margin. However, it is still earning less than 50% positive reviews by a large margin. The biggest movie in terms of production budget is Hitman: Agent 47, which is bad news for the studio, because it is not expected to do well. In fact, there's almost no chance any of the three new releases will top Straight Outta Compton this weekend. There's a small chance that their combined openings won't top Straight Outta Compton. There is some good news. This weekend last year, there were no movies that earned more than $20 million, which is the absolute low end of Straight Outta Compton's range. On the other hand, If I Stay was the best new release with $15.68 million. That's more than any of the wide releases this year will earn and it only managed third place last year. I think 2015 will win with ease at the top of the chart, but 2014 might have better depth, keeping it ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 20th, 2015
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation remained in first place for the third weekend in a row with $46.1 million in 63 markets over the weekend for totals of $235.3 million internationally and $373.6 million worldwide. The film's biggest opening was in France where it easily earned first place with $7.96 million on 719 screens. It also earned first place with $2.99 million on 947 screens in Brazil. The film isn't quite done its international run. It opens in Italy this weekend and China next month. It should have no trouble getting to $300 million internationally and could get all the way to $500 million worldwide. China could be a huge market for the movie.
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August 18th, 2015
Straight Outta Compton destroyed expectations earning even more than the outlier prediction I saw. Sadly, our predictions for The Man From U.N.C.L.E. turned out to be too optimistic, but overall the box office was still very strong. In fact, it grew 12% from last week to $148 million. Growth like that almost never happens at this time of year. Compared to last year, the box office was also strong, albeit by a smaller 3.7% margin. That said, a win is a win and worth celebrating, especially after a couple of strong declines. Year-to-date, 2015 maintains a strong lead over 2014 at $7.09 billion to $6.73 billion. A 5.4% lead year-over-year is a great margin for this time of year and it would take a really serious collapse to put that lead at risk. I don't think that's going to happen. In fact, there are three potential $1 billion hits yet to open in theaters, which is actually better than it was last year. Add in the number of potential $100 million hits and the lead could grow through till the end of the year.
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August 15th, 2015
Friday’s estimates are in and, not to put too fine a point on it, Straight Outta Compton destroyed predictions. In my defense, with Fantastic Four bombing, it looked like summer was over. It is very rare for the box office to rebound this time of year, but that’s exactly what happened. Straight Outta Compton earned $24.2 million on Friday night. Not only is this the biggest opening day for a musical biopic, it tops the previous record-holder’s opening weekend. (Walk the Line earned $22.35 million during its opening weekend back in 2005.) Since the film has broken records, it is a little hard to predict where it will be by the end of the weekend. The big opening day could mean a huge opening weekend. Or it could be the result of an extreme Fanboy Effect. Worst case scenario has the film making less over the rest of the weekend than it did during its opening day. This isn’t common, but it has happened before. That would still result in a $48 million opening weekend. On the higher end, its reviews could translate into long legs and an opening weekend of more than $65 million. If the weekend is below $55 million, then the Fanboy effect was bigger than its reviews. Anything above $60 million and the reverse is true. I'm going to go with $53 million, but as I said, this is a record-breaking opening day, so we are in untested territory.
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August 14th, 2015
It appears summer is over, but a strong showing from Straight Outta Compton and The Man From U.N.C.L.E. could mitigate that decline. Both are earning good reviews, which is unusual for this time of year. On the other hand, it is late in August, so neither are expected to be monster hits. Straight Outta Compton has a chance to turn its amazing reviews into long legs, so it could be a surprise $100 million hit. Even so, it won't open explosively. This weekend last year, the best new release was Let's Be Cops, which only managed $17.81 million. I think both new releases will top that by a serious margin. However, the best results from this weekend last year were Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy. I think 2014 has an advantage over 2015 in the year-over-year comparison, but I think things will be closer than they were the past two weeks.
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August 13th, 2015
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation expanded over the weekend and saw its weekend haul grow, but by a tiny amount. It pulled in $65.5 million in 59 markets over the weekend for totals of $156.7 million internationally and $264.5 million worldwide. The film earned first place in a trio of major markets, led by Russia where it made $4.07 million on 1,125 screens. It also debuted in Germany ($2.84 million on 612) and Spain ($1.73 million on 603). On the other hand, it had to settle for second place in Japan with $4.60 million on 600 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $6.07 million. Jurassic World earned first place in Japan, so that's hardly a poor opening. Its biggest market overall was South Korea, where it made $6.57 million on 818 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $31.99 million. The film is below average for the franchise so far, but that's still enough to break even and justify yet another installment.
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August 12th, 2015
The winners of our KISS of an Angel contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Fantastic Four opening weekend were...
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August 11th, 2015
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Despite what conventional wisdom was predicting, Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation remained in first place, as Fantastic Four missed even our low expectations. The Gift also did well, but the other two wide releases opened on the low end of expectations. Overall, the box office fell 8.3% from last weekend down to $132 million, so according to that number, it is safe to say summer is fading fast. Worse still, compared to last year, the box office was 29% lower, which is terrible and a clear sign that summer is already over. Granted, 2015 still has a solid lead over 2014, at $6.88 billion to $6.51 billion. A lead of 5.7% at this time of year is great and it would take an epic collapse for that to disappear anytime soon. I don't think 2015 will bounce back and start padding its lead any time soon, but I also don't think it will have 29% deficits week after week either.
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August 9th, 2015
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The Summer Season has come to an abrupt end this weekend, with Fantastic Four busting out with only $26.2 million, according to Fox’s Sunday morning estimate. That’s about half of what one would expect for a superhero movie in this budget range, even taking into account the fact that it’s the first in a potential franchise (see here for some comparisons), and a final box office total of less than $80 million seems in prospect, which is nothing short of a disaster: the film is likely not to even cover its marketing budget.
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August 8th, 2015
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I was significantly less optimistic than most box office analysts were when it came to the weekend predictions. While most predicted Fantastic Four would earn just over $40 million over the weekend, I assumed the film will struggle so much that it was just a matter of time before it was given back to Marvel Studios. Despite my pessimism, I appear to have been too optimistic.
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August 7th, 2015
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There could be a close race on top of the box office chart with Fantastic Four trying to unseat Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation as box office champion. This should be the number one story of the weekend; however, if I'm right and Fantastic Four does as poorly as I think it will, then the franchise will be in the hands of Marvel Studios by the end of the weekend. None of the other three wide releases are guaranteed to top $10 million over the weekend. In fact, it is very likely that one of them, Shaun of the Sheep, will miss the top five. This weekend last year was led by Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles with $65.58 million. Guardians of the Galaxy was second with $42.12 million. I don't think any film opening this weekend will match Guardians of the Galaxy, while there's a chance all four combined won't match TMNT. 2015 is going to take a beating on the year-over-year comparison.
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August 6th, 2015
The winners of our Mission: Possible contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation opening weekend were...
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August 4th, 2015
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation matched expectations close enough to call it a victory. Meanwhile, Vacation came within 10% of Friday's predictions, but unfortunately, we weren't predicting box office success, so that's not a good thing. With the holdovers slumping as summer ends, the overall box office dipped 3.2% from last weekend. That's not the problem. The problem is the 21% drop-off from the same weekend last year. Granted, Guardians of the Galaxy broke records when it opened this weekend last year, but a 21% drop-off is still troublesome. 2015 still leads 2014 by a substantial margin at $6.67 billion to $6.25 billion, so unless 2015 really crashes, it will still have a lead going into the winter holidays.
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August 1st, 2015
It is still a little too soon to tell how July will finish, as we don't have any numbers for the final weekend at the time of writing. We know Minions was a monster hit and that Ant-man will be a financial success. However, until we see how Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation does, it will be impossible to call the month a true success. If Rogue Nation bombed this weekend, then the month is only a partial success. It would also mean the summer of 2015 could be coming to an abrupt end. As for August, only Fantastic Four has a better than 50/50 chance of reaching $100 million; although some people think Straight Outta Compton also has a shot at that milestone. Besides those two, only a couple of other films even have a realistic shot at becoming midlevel hits. Worse still, last August was amazing with Guardians of the Galaxy breaking records. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles also did better than expected with a domestic haul of nearly $200 million. No release this August is going to match that figure. There's a good chance the top two releases combined won't do so. Fortunately, 2015 has a sizable lead over 2014, so even a soft month will keep 2015 ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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July 30th, 2015
August begins next weekend and there are four wide releases. However, only Fantastic Four has a real shot at earning first place. (Ricki and the Flash should become a midlevel hit, but the other two will likely barely make any noise at the box office.) Because of this, Fantastic Four is the only real choice target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Fantastic Four.
We got a last minute prize this week, so whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday),
without going over, will win a copy of
Scooby-Doo! And Kiss: Rock and Roll Mystery on
Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday),
without going under, will win a copy of
When the Checks Stop Coming In on
DVD.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win a copy of
72%: A Baby Mama Crisis on
DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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