August 16th, 2017
Ingrid Goes West opened in first place on the theater average chart with an average of $45,100 in three theaters. This is the third best average of the year behind The Big Sick (average of $84,315 in five) and The Beguiled ($57,323 in four). A24 had another success with Good Time earning an average of $31,275 in four theaters. The Trip to Spain opened with an average of $15,102 in three theaters, which is in the middle of the franchise average so far. Finally there’s Wind River, which was the only holdover in the $10,000 club. It managed an average of $13,615 in 45 theaters and already has nearly $1 million in limited release.
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August 16th, 2017
Alien: Covenant is the biggest release on this week’s list, but the franchise is off its peak and has been for a long time. As for Pick of the Week contenders, there are not a lot of them. If I were to stretch the definition, Food Wars: Season One is great, if you are into that subgenre of Anime. Descendants 2 is arguably better than the original, but the DVD isn’t going to really appeal to those outside the target audience. That leaves The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: 50th Anniversary Blu-ray as the clear winner for Pick of the Week.
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August 2nd, 2017
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There is no monster hit coming out this week, but that doesn’t mean there are no new DVD / Blu-rays worth picking up. In fact, there are six Pick of the Week contenders. This includes Slither: Collector's Edition, which took home the title in a close race. There are also two co-winners of the Puck of the Week for best Canadian release, Colossal on Blu-ray Combo Pack and I am the Blues on DVD.
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May 31st, 2017
Memorial Day long weekend wasn’t as potent as expected as both new releases struggled. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales led the way with $78.47 million over four days. This marks the third year in a row where no film released on Memorial Day long weekend earned at least $100 million over four days. I’ve heard some talk that this means it is losing its importance as a long weekend. However, I think the actual answer is much simpler, as it is also the third weekend in a row where no wide releases have earned overall positive reviews. I don’t think the box office power of Memorial Day has dropped since X-Men: Days of Future Past came out. I just think the quality of films has dropped since then. Speaking of lack of quality, Baywatch was DOA earning just $27.71 million over five days and unlike Dead Men Tell No Tales, it likely won’t do significantly better internationally. Despite both new releases struggling, the holiday helped the overall box office grow 14% from last weekend to $141 million. Unfortunately, this was 14% lower than the same weekend last year. 2017 still maintains its lead over 2016, but that lead as slipped to 2.6% or $110 million at $4.46 billion to $4.35 billion.
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May 27th, 2017
As expected, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales earned first place at the Friday box office. Unfortunately, it missed the low end of expectations with $23.40 million, putting it on pace for a $62 million three-day weekend and a $73 million total opening. The film’s reviews are just 32% positive, putting it in a tie with On Stranger Tides for worst in the franchise. On the other hand, the film earned an A minus from CinemaScore compared to a B plus for the previous installment, so that should help its legs a little. That said, the film cost $230 million to make, so unless it is a monster hit at the international box office, there’s little hope the sequel teased in the end credits will happen.
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May 25th, 2017
It’s Memorial Day long weekend, which is historically one of the best long weekends at the box office all year. However, this year the two new releases are far from the best. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales has the worst reviews in the franchise and its domestic box office will likely be the same. Sadly, Baywatch’s reviews are even worse. That said, they should still finish one-two over the weekend, while Alien: Covenant and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 will be in a race for third place. It likely won’t be close. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass opened one-two during the weekend with results that are similar to what Dead Men Tell No Tales / Baywatch are expected to make. I don’t know if 2017 will win in the year-over-year comparison, but it should be close.
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May 23rd, 2017
As expected, Alien: Covenant earned first place on the weekend box office chart. However, it had a strange journey there. Everything, Everything earned more during its opening weekend than it cost to make, which is great news for the studio. On the other hand, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul will be the last entry in this franchise for a long time. Meanwhile, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 became only the second film released in 2017 to hit $300 million domestically. Unfortunately, the good news didn’t outweigh the bad news and the overall box office fell 10% from last weekend to $122 million. Compared to last year, the weekend box office was 11% lower. Fortunately, 2017 still has a $130 million lead over 2016 at $4.23 billion to $4.10 billion, so there’s no reason to panic.
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May 20th, 2017
As expected, Alien: Covenant earned first place on Friday’s box office chart. This is a little better than originally predicted, but in line with our adjustment after Thursday’s previews. Unfortunately, it is not all good news. The reviews are 73% positive, which is good, but it only managed a B from CinemaScore, which is low enough to hurt its legs. We’re still going with just over $40 million over the weekend and over $100 million in total, but this might not be enough to be a real financial success.
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May 19th, 2017
Alien: Covenant opened with $4.2 million in previews last night, which is about what we expected. Maybe it’s a bit higher that anticipated. In fact, it is a little better than the $3.7 million Kong managed. The film won’t have the same legs, as it is a sequel and those tend to be more front-loaded. Furthermore, its reviews have slipped to 72% positive, which isn’t good enough to truly help its legs. We predicted a little under $40 million, but now a little over $40 million seems more likely.
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May 18th, 2017
Alien: Covenant is looking to unseat Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 for top spot on the box office chart this weekend. Meanwhile, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul and Everything, Everything are just trying to survive in counter-programming roles. The prognosis for those two is mixed. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, there were five films that earned more than $10 million over the weekend. This year, there might be only two. Hopefully the new releases aren’t that bad, while the holdovers don’t completely collapse. If this happens, 2017 could win in the year-over-year comparison for the second weekend in a row. If not, then 2017's winning streak will end at one.
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May 11th, 2017
There are three wide releases coming out next week, but only one of them, Alien: Covenant, has any real chance at earning first place. (Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul and Everything, Everything could become midlevel hits.) Because of this, it’s the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Alien: Covenant.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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May 1st, 2017
April is over and thank god for that. The Fate of the Furious is currently the only film that was better than a midlevel hit, while Going in Style might end up being the second-biggest release of the month. On the low end, there were seven films on last month’s list that didn’t even manage to open in truly wide release (2,000 or more theaters). Fortunately, May looks a lot brighter. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should dominate the chart and get the month off to a fast start. Furthermore, every week there’s at least one film with a reasonable chance of earning $100 million domestically. Additionally, last May wasn’t particularly strong, so that should help 2017 overall. Granted, Captain America: Civil War earned more than $400 million, so the month got off to a fast start, but films struggled the rest of the way. The second-biggest film was X-Men: Apocalypse at just $155 million, while only one other movie, The Angry Birds Movie, earned more than $100 million. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should at least be competitive with Captain America: Civil War, allowing 2017 to win thanks to its superior depth.
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April 4th, 2017
Romantic drama starring Nick Robinson and Amandla Stenberg, directed by Stella Meghie, opens May 19 ... Full Movie Details.
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