January 20th, 2016
It was a slow week with only a handful of significant releases. However, that was good news for me, because it allowed me review the screener that arrived late. That screener was for The Martian, which was as good as I had hoped it was and it is the Pick of the Week. It is not the only new release that was in contention for that title. Both Adventure Time - Stakes! (DVD) and All Things Must Pass (DVD or Blu-ray) were in the running.
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December 9th, 2015
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The Screen Actors Guild nominations were announced today and there are at least a few surprises to talk about. Trumbo led the way with three nominations, but there were six films with two nods apiece. Six!
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November 10th, 2015
As expected, Spectre remained in first pulling in $117.8 million in 73 markets for totals of $223.1 million internationally and $293.1 million worldwide. This is almost as much as it cost to make, so if it can double this figure, it should be able to break even eventually. The film's biggest market was the U.K. where it added $19.99 million on 696 screens over the weekend for a total of $98.82 million. It has already overtaken Jurassic World for the biggest hit of the year in the U.K. and should have no trouble rocketing into the top five on the all-time chart there. The film's biggest opening was in Germany, where it pulled in $18.06 million on 1,460 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $20.26 million. This is about 15% lower than Skyfall's opening in that market. Likewise, the film wasn't as strong during its debut in Russia earning $6.29 million on 2,112 screens, compared to $8.27 million on 1,254 screens for Skyfall. At this pace, Spectre will definitely fail to match Skyfall, but anything close to $800 million will be enough to break even, perhaps before it reaches the home market. It all depends on how much its global advertising campaign cost.
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October 14th, 2015
The Martian remained in first place with $58.1 million in 75 markets for totals of $119.0 million internationally and $227.7 million worldwide. $200 million worldwide was the minimum needed for the studio to save face. If it can get to $300 million worldwide, then we start talking about profitability. I don't see a way it won't get to $300 million, perhaps as early as this time next week, while $500 million worldwide is a reasonable goal to aim for. Its biggest new market of the weekend was South Korea where it earned first place with $11.09 million on 1,132 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $13.00 million. It also dominated the chart in Russia with $8.18 million on 2,246 screens. On the other hand, it only managed second place in Germany with $3.85 million on 676 screens. As far as holdovers go, the film remained in first place in the U.K. with $5.96 million in 582 theaters over the weekend for a two-week total of $20.44 million. This is about on par with its run here, which bodes well for its worldwide total.
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October 9th, 2015
The only wide release of the week is Pan, which is being described as critically panned, because entertainment writers have a pathological need to use puns. I hate puns and I'm still guilty of this. Despite being the only new release, Pan isn't expected to open in first place, or even second place. The Martian is expected to repeat on top, while Hotel Transylvania 2 should have another strong hold remaining in second place. This weekend last year was in some ways the polar opposite, as there were four new releases in the top ten, plus another that opened in eleventh place. However, the result was the same, as Gone Girl remained in first place. The Martian should top Gone Girl's performance, while Hotel Transylvania 2 and Pan should match Dracula Untold and Alexander and the Terrible Horrible No Good Very Bad Day. However, after that, 2014's depth seems too strong and 2015 will likely lose in the year-over-year comparison. That's fine, as 2015's lead is huge and there are still a few (nearly) guaranteed monster hits left to open this year.
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October 8th, 2015
The Martian opened in first place with $45.2 million on 9,299 screens in 50 markets. This includes a first place, 10.01 million opening on 582 theaters in the U.K. This was the biggest opening for both the director and the star. The film had a similarly strong opening in Australia earning first place with $4.28 million on 582 screens. It also earned first place in Hong Kong ($2.26 million on 70 screens) and Taiwan ($1.68 million on 137 screens). It only managed second place in Italy with $2.53 million on 464 screens and in Mexico with $2.9 million on 1,757, while it debuted in third place in Brazil with $1.82 million on 507. Overall, the film it doing about as well internationally as it did here, which is good news for Fox.
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October 2nd, 2015
The Martian is the only true wide release this week, but it might not be the only new release in the top ten. The Sci-fi adventure film is earning award-worthy reviews and is also being praised for being an inspiring portrayal of science on the big screen. Sicario is expanding its theater count to 2,500, which should push it into the top five. The Walk opened in IMAX screens on Wednesday, but it missed the top ten place and it will likely fall. This weekend last year, Gone Girl and Annabelle both opened with between $37 million and $38 million. The Martian will open with more than either of those films opened with. However, it won't open with more than both of them combined. We will need good growth from Sicario and solid legs from Hotel Transylvania 2 to match last year's result.
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October 1st, 2015
Lost in Hong Kong opened in first place in China and internationally with $106.80 million. This is better than Monster Hunt opened with, so if it has the same legs, the box office record in China will fall for the third time this year. Speaking of records, the overall Chinese box office rose to $5 billion with three months left in the year. This is amazing.
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October 1st, 2015
September ended on a record note with the debut of Hotel Transylvania 2. Additionally, there was great depth and 2015's lead over 2014 grew to nearly $500 million. How do things look going forward? The month starts out with The Martian, which should have no trouble becoming the biggest hit of the month and might even top $200 million. On the other hand, no other film is expected to get to $100 million. There's only one or two that will even come close. Fortunately, last October was very similar with one $100 million hit, Gone Girl, while two other films came close, Annabelle and Fury. It looks like it will be up to the depth films from both years to determine which year comes out on top.
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September 28th, 2015
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Hotel Transylvania 2 was surprisingly strong this past weekend, topping expectations and entering the record book. It wasn't the only new release of the week. The Intern matched expectations nearly perfectly. On the other hand, Everest struggled and The Green Inferno barely made a peep. The overall box office pulled in $138 million, which is 22% higher than last weekend and 29% higher than the same weekend last year. 2015's lead over 2014 has grown to $470 million or 6.3%. This year we have a running tally of $7.96 billion compared to $7.49 billion from last year. There's just three months left in the year, so 2015's lead looks safer and safer every passing weekend.
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September 27th, 2015
Hotel Transylvania 2 is off to an impressive start this weekend with a new record weekend for September, according to Sony’s estimate released on Sunday. The animated comedy is expected to earn $47.5 million, beating the record held by the first film in the franchise, which debuted with $42.5 million this time in 2012. It’s also on the high end of expectations, which had it coming in the high 30s or low 40s. It’s a welcome turnaround for Adam Sandler, after a string of flops, but even more so for Sony Pictures, which has had a dismal year so far, with no film earning more than Pixels $76.7 million before now.
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September 26th, 2015
As expected, Hotel Transylvania 2 earned first place on Friday, but it did so with an unexpectedly strong result. The film pulled in $13.25 million for the day; by comparison, this is 21% higher than the first film’s debut. Sequels do tend to be a little more front loaded than the original film, but this is still a fantastic start. For instance, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs had a 3.72 internal multiplier of (weekend box office divided by Friday box office) while its sequel had an internal multiplier of 3.68. Granted, that's a tiny drop, but the reviews of these two films dropped dramatically, which likely had some effect. On the other hand, the two Hotel Transylvania films have earned nearly identical reviews. Hotel Transylvania earned an internal multiplier of 3.88, so if that drops to about 3.7, then Hotel Transylvania 2 would pull in about $49 million over the weekend. That's seems excessive. On the other hand, even earning just over $42.5 million and breaking the September record would be disappointing after an opening day like this.
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September 25th, 2015
There are two wide releases this week, a wide expansion, and a semi-wide release. That's a lot of films to talk about. Of the three new films, none of them are earning more than 50% positive reviews. This is sadly typical of this time of year. Hotel Transylvania 2 is easily the biggest new release of the week and the only film with a shot at $40 million. The second wide release, The Intern, and the wide expansion, Everest, should be in a tight race for second place with $20 million each. On the other hand, The Green Inferno, the semi-wide release, is staring down the barrel of the Mendoza Line. If you look at the top three films from last year and compare them to the top three films from this year, they look about the same. The Equalizer's opening is on low the end of Hotel Transylvania 2's range of expectations. Additionally, the depth this year looks better than last year. 2015 should end the month on a high note in the year-over-year comparison.
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September 23rd, 2015
The Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials rose to first place with $43.3 million in 67 markets over the weekend for a total of $78.0 million internationally and $108.3 million worldwide. The film's biggest opening came from South Korea, but it only managed second place there with $5.66 million on 804 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.20 million. On the other hand, the film dominated the Russian box office with $4.19 million on 2,328 screens. The original movie opened stronger in Russia, but The Scorch Trials performed better in its opening in South Korea. Given these results, it is still too soon to tell how well this film will do compared to its predecessor. That said, it already has more worldwide than it cost to make. In fact, it almost has enough worldwide to pay for its entire production budget. Its advertising budget would have to be much larger than expected for it to not break even sooner rather than later.
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September 22nd, 2015
Sicario not only led the weekend on the Per Theater Chart with an average of $66,881 in six theaters. It also had the best per theater average for any film released in 2015, beating out the previous record-holder, Ex Machina, by about $7,500. On a related note, there's already reports of a sequel in the works. Jeremy Scott: The People's Designer was up next with an average of $18,750 in twelve theaters. Finally, there's Everest. This film not only earned a spot in the top five overall, but pulled in an average of $13,251 in over 500 theaters.
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September 22nd, 2015
While the two new releases landed in first and second as expected, their box office numbers were not as strong. The Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials failed to match The Maze Runner, which is not a good sign for the franchise going forward. Black Mass did well, for a September release. Meanwhile, Everest might be considered the best new release of in the top ten, which is not surprising as it is being released by Universal. Finally there's Captive, the latest victim of the Mendoza Line. Overall, the box office was still strong and rose 10.0% from last week to $112 million. It was also 9.6% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2015 saw its lead expand to 5.8% over 2014 at $7.78 billion to $7.36 billion.
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September 20th, 2015
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials will win the weekend at the box office, according to studio estimates released on Sunday, with a very solid $30.3 million. That’s down a bit from The Maze Runner’s $32.5 million this weekend last year, but the difference is small enough that a good performance on Sunday and slight increases in the actuals for Friday and Saturday could actually push the sequel slightly ahead. Either way, the franchise seems on fairly solid ground, although the increase in budget for the second film to $61 million from $34 million the first time around suggests it won’t be as profitable. As always, international box office will be key, and early signs there are good, with $78 million already in the bank.
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September 19th, 2015
The Fall Season starts in earnest this weekend with the release of a Young Adult, dystopian-future action movie and an Older Adult dramatic thriller (not to mention a couple of pieces of counter-programming) vying for box office dollars, and, in one case, Oscar attention. Both films are getting off to good starts, based on Friday’s estimates. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials is off to the best start with $11 million for the day and a projected weekend around $30 million. Black Mass will have to settle for second place with $8.8 million on Friday and around $25 million for the weekend.
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September 18th, 2015
It's a sort of busy week this week, with two wide releases, The Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Black Mass, as well as two limited releases with a shot at reaching the top ten, Captive and Everest. The Scorch Trials is the latest Young Adult Adaptation franchise. The first film crossed $100 million domestically, so this one hopes to grow at the box office. Black Mass is early Oscar-bait, but the reviews suggest it won't quite get there. Captive is the latest faith-based film and it likely won't go anywhere. Everest gets an early IMAX opening before its wide release next week. This weekend last year was the weekend The Maze Runner opened. Since sequels tend to open faster than their predecessors, 2015 should come out on top in the year-over-year comparison.
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September 1st, 2015
As September begins, the box office is in a slump. August was terrible and only Straight Outta Compton escaped with its dignity intact. Fortunately, we expected August to be terrible, so the box office isn't any lower than anticipated. As for September, there are two wide releases expected to earn more than $100 million, which is better than most years. Those two films are Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Hotel Transylvania 2, both sequels. There are four other films that could become midlevel hits, so we have good depth as well. By comparison, last September there were also two $100 million hits, The Maze Runner and The Equalizer. However, there were only two midlevel hits, so it appears this year has better depth. Frankly, 2015 has such a large lead over 2014 that all it needs to do is maintain pace for the rest of the year to be considered a success. If September can help 2015 grow its lead, then the overall industry should be very happy.
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