October 25th, 2017
There are not many films on this week’s list of home market releases, but there are several bigger titles making their home market debut. Some, like Cars 3, are only coming out on Video on Demand, but there are also some serious Pick of the Week contenders hitting DVD / Blu-ray as well. Of these contenders, War for the Planet of the Apes has the best combination of reviews and extras on the Blu-ray Combo Pack.
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October 10th, 2017
It’s a good week for the home market with top notch releases in nearly every category. Baby Driver is the biggest first run release of the week and one of the best releases. The Lure is a foreign-language film and one of two Criterion Collection releases in competition for Pick of the Week. Maudie is a Canadian limited release that did surprisingly well in theaters. Finally there’s Othello, which first came out more than 60 years ago. The only thing we are missing is a TV on DVD title. As for the winner, I’m giving Pick of the Week to, Othello, while Maudie wins Puck of the Week for Best Canadian Release.
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August 24th, 2017
Annabelle: Creation climbed into first place internationally last weekend, with $42.0 million on 13,209 screens in 56 markets for totals of $96.7 million overseas, and $160.9 million worldwide. The film’s biggest new market was Mexico, where it earned a first-place $8 million on 3,086 screens, while it also earned first place in Brazil with $4.4 million on 1,263 screens. However, its most impressive market was India, where it earned first place with $4.4 million on 1,159 screens. It is very rare for non-Indian films to top the chart in India.
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August 13th, 2017
After a series of lackluster weekends at the box office, Annabelle: Creation is doing its bit to clear away the end-of-Summertime blues with a $35 million opening this weekend. That’s right in line with the $37 million Annabelle opened with three years ago, which is an impressive performance for a horror franchise. It’s also the best opening for a horror movie since Split’s $40 million start back in January. The first film in the franchise fell away quite rapidly, and ended up with $84 million in total, so a final total of over $100 million is far from assured, but with a production budget of only $15 million, and probably not much more than $20 million in marketing, this should be a highly profitable movie for Warner Bros., especially since the franchise is popular globally.
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August 11th, 2017
Annabelle: Creation needed a $3 million during its previews to have a chance at saving the summer, and even then it would need better than average legs for the genre to hit $30 million during its opening weekend. Fortunately, it earned $4 million in previews. This is more than twice as much as Don’t Breathe and Lights Out earned this time last year; however, those two films were not sequels and sequels tend to have shorter legs. Annabelle’s reviews are 68% positive at the moment, which is good enough for this time of year. At this point, opening with more than $30 million is a safe bet, while $35 million to $40 million isn’t out of the question.
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August 10th, 2017
Unless Annabelle: Creation is a $30 million hit, it is safe to say summer ended a couple of weeks ago. The film has about a 50/50 chance of getting there. The Nut Job: Nutty by Nature is widely expected set a record this week, but not a good one. Finally there’s The Glass Castle, which is only opening semi-wide. Overall, the box office looks weak compared to this weekend last year. Sausage Party opened with $34.26 million, which is more than any film this year will make. Worse still, Suicide Squad won the weekend with $43.54 million. 2017 is going to lose to 2016 in the year-over-year comparison by at least $43.54 million.
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August 8th, 2017
The Dark Tower opened on the very low end of expectation with just $19.15 million over the weekend. The rest of the box office was more or less in line with predictions, leading to a $122 million haul, which is a 15% decline from last weekend. A 15% decline is pretty normal this time of year. What isn’t normal is a decline of 47% from last year; a year-over-year decline like that normally only happens when there’s a misalignment in holiday, but it wasn’t a surprise, as Suicide Squad earned more last year than the entire box office earned this year. 2017 was already behind 2016’s pace by a large amount, but that deficit more than doubled from last weekend and is now $270 million or 3.8% at $6.89 billion to $7.17 billion. Remember, 2017 started the summer about $200 million ahead of 2016, so the summer has been a disaster at the box office.
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August 6th, 2017
Suddenly, it feels like the end of Summer at the box office. Last weekend’s modest opening for The Emoji Movie made the top end of the chart look weak, and The Dark Tower’s projected $19.5 million debut this weekend has done nothing to fill the void. There are a few films coming out in the next few weeks that could unexpectedly produce robust numbers (The Hitman’s Bodyguard is probably the best bet for a surprise break-out), but there’s nothing on the schedule until Kingsman: The Golden Circle and The Lego Ninjago Movie come out on September 22 that can be relied on to crack $100 million at the domestic box office.
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August 5th, 2017
On the positive side, The Dark Tower topped the chart on Friday. On the negative side, it missed both our original prediction, as well as our lowered expectations with just $7.725 million. The film’s reviews are terrible at 19% positive, while its CinemaScore is a mere B, so that’s bad news for the film’s legs, putting it on pace for between $18 million and $19 million. It’s good news for Dunkirk, which has a real shot at first place on the weekend chart for the third weekend in a row.
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August 3rd, 2017
August has begun, but I’m starting to think Summer has already ended. The Dark Tower was expected to be the big hit of the weekend, but its reviews are a lot weaker than anticipated. Kidnap is also opening wide and its early reviews were good, but that has changed as the day has gone on. Furthermore, it’s buzz is really quiet, so its box office chances are not good. Finally Detroit is expanding wide this weekend. Its reviews are among the best we’ve seen all summer, but it is tough to go from a limited release to a wide release, so I’m not overly optimistic. This weekend last year, Suicide Squad opened with $133.68 million. It is very likely the entire box office will be less than $133.68 million this weekend. 2017 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 1st, 2017
Summer is coming to a close, as the two new releases, The Emoji Movie and Atomic Blonde had okay openings over the weekend. Dunkirk was able to earn first place with $26.61 million, which is great news for that movie, but bad news for the overall box office, as it is the worst result for a number one film since April. Overall, the box office fell 20% from last week to $144 million. This is 24% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 is now behind 2016 by 1.7% or $120 million at $6.70 billion to $6.82 billion.
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July 30th, 2017
A solid second weekend will be enough to keep Dunkirk at the top of the box office chart this weekend, as The Emoji Movie falls short of a par performance for a family-friendly animated film. Christopher Nolan’s war movie will fall 44% from it opening—a decent figure these days—to earn $28.1 million this time around, according to Warner Bros.’ projection released on Sunday morning. That will take it past $100 million domestically today, puts it on course for around $200 million domestically in total.
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July 29th, 2017
The weekend got off to a strange start with The Emoji Movie earning first place on Friday with $10.05 million. That’s the good news. The bad news is in the future. Not only is the film’s Tomatometer Score just 6% positive, not only are the critics aggressive in their negative reviews, but the film only managed a B from CinemaScore. Family films rarely earn less than a A minus from CinemaScore, so this will be devastating for its legs. That said, a $10.05 million start is still impressive and a second place, $28 million debut is enough that it will break even early in its home market run.
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July 28th, 2017
Atomic Blonde easily topped The Emoji Movie during previews, earning $1.52 million. However, had the action flick not topped the family film, it would have been a disaster. Compared to other recent action films, Atomic Blonde underperformed Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets ($1.7 million) and Baby Driver ($2.1 million), but at least it topped King Arthur: Legend of the Sword ($1.15 million). This summer, the average action film has opened with just over 10 times what it made during its previews, which is bad news for Atomic Blonde, as it puts the film’s opening weekend at $15 million to $16 million. Its reviews are good, but not great enough to really change this trend. Even $20 million would be a boon after this start.
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July 27th, 2017
The final weekend of July has two wide releases, Atomic Blonde and The Emoji Movie. Neither are expected to be monster hits, but both could be profitable at the box office. Atomic Blonde’s reviews are excellent and its connections to the John Wick movies could get people into theaters. The Emoji Movie still has no reviews and its buzz is incredibly negative. I haven’t seen buzz this negative since Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul. This does give Dunkirk a real shot at repeating on top of the chart. This weekend last year, Jason Bourne opened with nearly $60 million, which will likely be more than both new releases this year earn. Even if Dunkirk has better legs than expected, there’s little hope 2017 will win in the year-over-year comparison.
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July 20th, 2017
Next weekend could be one of the closest races we’ve seen all year. I can almost guarantee Atomic Blonde will have better previews and will top the chart on Friday; however, The Emoji Movie is just as likely to win on Saturday and that could be enough to win overall. It is literally a coin toss to pick the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest and Atomic Blonde won that toss. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Atomic Blonde.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Girls: Season Six on Blu-ray.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprise consisting of one TV on DVD release.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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July 1st, 2017
I hate it when the first of the month lands on a Saturday. By the time this story goes live, we will still have almost no box office data for Despicable Me 3, so we won’t know if June ended on a positive note. Fortunately, Wonder Woman beat expectations and might end up as the biggest hit of the summer, at least for a little while. July begins with Spider-Man: Homecoming, which should make at least $300 million and is the last film being released this summer that has a shot at being a $400 million hit domestically. It is very likely that nothing else this month will come within $100 million of that movie, so that could help its legs. There are a few potential $100 million hits, including War for the Planet of the Apes, Dunkirk, and a couple of other long shots. Last July had a similar feel with The Secret Life of Pets topping the list with well over $300 million, while there were five other $100 million hits. This July would have to beat expectations substantially to match this performance. I’m not confident 2017 will be able to maintain its pace at the box office. I’m worried at least one big film will struggled and 2017 will end the month behind 2016’s pace.
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June 21st, 2017
Animated adventure with the voices of T.J. Miller and James Corden, and Anna Faris opens July 28 ... Full Movie Details.
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