Weekend predictions: Jungle Cruise should sail choppy waters to the top of the chart

July 30th, 2021

Jungle Cruise enters this weekend as a firm favorite to take the box office crown, even though family films have been performing notably weaker in recent weeks and Disney has the film available for a premium via Disney+. Our model thinks it will do roughly twice the business of the number two film on the chart, and there’s a good chance it’ll do even better than that. With the other two new wide releases not expected to do huge amounts of business though, it’s likely to be a flat weekend for the market as a whole unless Disney’s latest theme-park-ride-turned-movie outperforms expectations. More...

Weekend estimates: Space Jam opens with impressive $31.65 million

July 18th, 2021

Families returned to movie theaters in a big way this weekend, and helped propel Space Jam: A New Legacy to a strong $31.65 million opening, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday-morning projection. With Escape Room: Tournament of Champions also beating our model’s prediction, the newcomers made up for soft results for returning films. More...

Weekend predictions: Black Widow favorite for second weekend win

July 16th, 2021

In one of the more unpredictable weekends at the box office in recent months, our model makes Black Widow a comfortable favorite to top the box office chart, but Space Jam: A New Legacy can’t be ruled out of the running yet if the Disney movie falls more steeply than expected from its $80-million opening weekend. More...

Weekend predictions: F9 favorite to win weekend

July 2nd, 2021

Two films that couldn’t be more different arrive in theaters this holiday weekend. The Boss Baby: Family Business is a classic family-friendly animated comedy adventure that’s trying to draw in parents and their children. The Forever Purge is an action horror movie targeted at everyone in between. With F9: The Fast Saga returning after a blockbusting opening last weekend, there’s something for everyone playing in movie theaters this weekend. While F9 is favorite to win, all three films could do good business, according to our model. More...

Weekend estimates: A Quiet Place: Part II has the edge in four-way race

June 13th, 2021

We won’t know for sure until final numbers are reported on Monday, but it looks as though A Quiet Place: Part II will move back to the top of the box office chart this weekend, fractionally edging out In the Heights. The difference in their respective Sunday-morning projections is just $245,000 though, with Quiet Place expected to earn $11.65 million and In the Heights $11.405 million, which is within the margin of error (particularly considering box office is harder to predict for the studios at the moment as market conditions are changing so much). In fact, Peter Rabbit 2 (projected to earn $10.4 million) and The Conjuring 3 (projected for $10.02 million) are technically still in the running for the win, although that would be a big surprise given they’re over a million dollars back on today’s tracking.

However things shake out, there’s a good chance we’ll have four films earn over $10 million at the box office this weekend, which would be a new pandemic-era high if the numbers hold. The less good news is that In the Heights didn’t hit, well, the heights that were hoped for going into the weekend. It did come very close to what our model expected though. More...

Weekend predictions: A Quiet Place is the favorite to win the weekend

June 4th, 2021

Expect to see a close race at the top of the box office chart this weekend as A Quiet Place: Part II does battle against two newcomers—The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, and Spirit Untamed—and Cruella hopes to make up some ground on the current chart topper after posting solid numbers last weekend. There’s a possibility that four films could top $10 million this weekend, although our model thinks that’s unlikely. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see three films better that number though, which would be another milestone in the recovery of the theatrical market. More...

Weekend estimates: A Quiet Place sets new 2021 benchmark with 3-day $48.38 million

May 30th, 2021

A Quiet Place: Part II is headed for a Memorial Day opening of close to $60 million, according to Paramount’s Sunday morning projections. The horror sequel is expected to pick up $48.38 million over three days, and $58 million over four, making it the biggest hit at the box office since theaters started reopening, handily beating Godzilla vs. Kong, which debuted with $32.2 million back in April. Cruella is well behind it in second place, but will top Tom and Jerry to become the best-performing post-pandemic family movie with a $21.3-million 3-day opening, and projected $26.5 million over four days.

Both films are performing well above our model’s predictions, which is an encouraging sign that audiences are returning to theaters. More...

Weekend predictions: Make-or-break Memorial Day weekend is here

May 28th, 2021

The last fourteen months have turned the movie industry upside down. This weekend might be the one that makes things start to seem a little more normal. Two big releases from major studios arrived in theaters yesterday evening for preview shows, and will be hoping to capitalize on the long weekend to deliver significant results at the box office. We’re already seeing some promising results, with A Quiet Place: Part II earning $4.8 million from previews, and Cruella hitting $1.4 million. Here’s what that suggests for their prospects for the weekend, and how our model sees the weekend shaking out. More...

Weekend estimates: Spiral repeats as market braces for Memorial Day

May 23rd, 2021

With no new films opening in over 1,500 theaters, this weekend was always going to be a modest one at the box office as the industry prepares for a make-or-break Memorial Day session. Spiral will repeat at the top of the chart with a projected $4.55 million, according to Lionsgate’s Sunday-morning projection. Its 48% decline from opening weekend is a bit better than expected, and several other films are also holding on well, which means the weekend as a whole looks more solid than feared. It’s still fair to say that A Quiet Place: Part II and Cruella will face virtually no competition when they open this coming weekend. More...

Weekend predictions: Dream Horse unlikely to trouble the top six

May 21st, 2021

With Memorial Day weekend looming over the market, along with its two big new films, Cruella and A Quiet Place: Part II, this will be a quiet weekend at the box office. In fact, to borrow a well-worn phrase, perhaps too quiet.

Dream Horse is the only new wide release this weekend, and (as we will see in a moment) it isn’t expected to do a huge amount of business. Spiral, last week’s number one, didn’t do spectacular business on opening weekend and should see a sharp decline. With everything else in the top ten either coming off a weak debut or pretty much played out, we could see one of the worst weekends in the past couple of months.

Here’s what the model has to say… More...

Cruella trailer

February 18th, 2021

Crime caper starring Emma Stone is scheduled to open in theaters on May 28. Full movie details…

In 1970s London, young fashion designer Estella de Vil becomes obsessed with dogs’ skins, especially Dalmatians, until she eventually becomes a ruthless and terrifying legend known as Cruella. More...