February 24th, 2019
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It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. We will announce the winners and have our reactions as they happen, while keeping track of how our readers did in predicting the outcomes.
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February 24th, 2019
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It’s Oscar Day, and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. in Italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. For example, I would be happy with half of the Best Picture nominees winning.
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February 21st, 2019
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We end with the biggest award of the night: Best Picture. I don’t know who’s going to win. I think I know who the favorite is, but there are five films here that could win and I wouldn’t really be surprised.
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February 21st, 2019
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Director, which is not exactly competitive, but it is yet another category where we have a favorite, but where an upset wouldn’t be too shocking.
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February 19th, 2019
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two Screenwriting Categories, starting with Best Adapted Screenplay, which is not among the most competitive categories, but it isn’t inconceivable that there will be an upset.
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February 12th, 2019
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Supporting Actor. In this category, there is a favorite, but an upset isn’t out of the question.
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February 11th, 2019
The BAFTA winners were announced and The Favorite led the way with 7 wins. Like I mentioned before, understandably, the BAFTAs tend to favor British films and this can lessen their ability to predict Oscar winners and The Favorite is such a British Film that they managed to spell the word correctly. That doesn’t mean there are no lessons we can learn from these results.
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January 25th, 2019
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It is not a good week for limited releases. The biggest release is BlacKkKlansman, which is getting a re-release this week. King of Thieves is the biggest new release in terms of buzz, but The Image Book and Never Look Away have better reviews.
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January 23rd, 2019
The Oscar nominations were announced yesterday starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year for reasons no one has been able to adequately explain to me. Because it was the day after a long weekend, it took a bit of time to get all the normal work done and digest the results. And there were some interesting results to digest. No one film led the way with total nominations, as two films, The Favourite and Roma tied with 10 nominations each.
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January 12th, 2019
The BAFTA nominations were announced and The Favorite led the way with 12 nominations. Sometimes the BAFTAs are a really good indicator for who will do well on Oscar night. Other times their bias to British films is too much. I think this year will be an example of the latter and I don't think The Favourite is suddenly an Oscar favorite. That said, there’s still some things you can learn here.
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January 10th, 2019
The Writers Guild of America has a lot of categories, as they hand out nearly 30 awards. However, only three of them are for theatrical releases. The list of nominees include several major Awards Season players and not a lot of surprises. There are some clear patterns emerging, but also some surprising results.
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January 9th, 2019
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Directors Guild of America announced their theatrical nominations this week and we are starting to see some real patterns emerge and I think the Oscar picture is getting clearer.
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January 4th, 2019
The Producers Guild of America announced their nominations in the theatrical categories today and there are some trends building. However, there are also some questions generated after these nominations were announced.
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December 12th, 2018
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The Screen Actors Guild were the third group to announce their nominations for this awards season. There’s not a lot of surprises on this week’s list. A Star is Born led the way with four nominations, while The Favourite was right behind with three.
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December 6th, 2018
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The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. For example Vice led the way with six nominations, so its Oscar chances have gone up, but don’t expect it to lead the way when the Oscars nominations are announced.
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November 19th, 2018
It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases and franchise box sets as well. Unfortunately, 2018 has not been a good year for blockbusters for any studio not named Disney. In order to be on this list, a film has to be a major release, earn critical praise, and be on out DVD / Blu-ray and that’s a really short list this year. For example, Universal is the second best studio this year in terms of total domestic box office, but they’ve only released one film that has earned $100 million and overwhelmingly positive reviews. That film, Halloween doesn’t come out on DVD / Blu-ray till January. Most of the rest of the big six are lucky to have more than one entry on this week’s list.
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November 17th, 2018
The Independent Spirit Awards nominations were announced on Friday and thus the 2018 Awards Season begins. We The Animals topped the list with five nominations, while A24 earned 12 as a studio.
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November 6th, 2018
This is either an amazing week or a terrible week, depending on how you look at things. It is amazing, because there is a trio of releases I was really looking forward to reviewing: BlacKkKlansman, Incredibles 2, and Christopher Robin. It’s a terrible week, because none of those screeners showed up. I normally don’t like giving the Pick of the Week when I’m still waiting for the screener, but that’s not an option this week, so Incredibles 2 wins.
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October 24th, 2018
It is a slow week on the home market, as Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! is the only first run release. There are several horror films that are selling well enough to be worth talking about, but that is all. As far as the best of the best are concerned, the two I’m most interested in and I put in requests for screeners for both are BlacKkKlansman and Incredibles 2, but they are only coming out on VOD this week. I don’t like handing out Pick of the Week titles to VOD releases, so the real race is between The Americans: The Complete Final Season and Made In Abyss: Season One. Both are worth picking up, but I think there will be a full series Megaset for The Americans, so I’m giving the title to Made In Abyss.
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August 21st, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians beat the weekend estimates by more than $1 million, which is great news for the film’s future, as it suggests even better word-of-mouth. The rest of the new releases were well back, but their weakness didn’t sink the weekend box office, as it pulled in $129 million. This was still down 12% from last weekend, but more importantly, this was a stunning 35% higher than the same weekend last year, which helped extend 2018’s lead over 2017. 2018’s lead is now 9.6% or $690 million at $7.88 billion to $7.19 billion. I suspect we have likely nearly reached the peak this lead will be throughout the rest of the year, but it would take a major collapse for 2018 to not finish with a healthy victory in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 14th, 2018
The Meg was arguably the biggest box office surprise of the summer, earning more during its opening weekend than many thought it would earn in total and it doubled our prediction. It also earned more than the next three films earned combined, so it was a rather one-sided affair at the box office. Its $45.40 million debut did help the overall box office rise 5.6% from last weekend reaching $147 million. More importantly, this is 26% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 now has a 9.1% / $640 million lead over 2017 at $7.68 billion to $7.04 million.
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August 12th, 2018
The Meg not only beat our initial prediction, it topped yesterday’s revised estimate and that’s a really good sign. Warner Bros. is reporting an opening weekend of $44.5 million. If this is accurate, then the film’s internal multiplier will be a healthy 2.70. Granted, its reviews are mixed and it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore and that’s not a great sign for its long term chances. However, there are no movies opening for the rest of the summer that are as big as this film, so that could help its legs. After all, The Hitman’s Bodyguard had a multiplier of 3.53. Internationally, the numbers were even better, as the film earned $96.8 million, including $50.3m on 12,650 screens in China. It is also a hit in Mexico ($6.2 million) and Russia ($5.0 million), although it is a more muted success in the U.K. with $4.4 million. That last market is on par with what we thought the film would open with here. On a side note, you are more likely to die eating shark that being eaten by a shark, so don’t kill sharks. They are apex predators and are very important to the environment.
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August 11th, 2018
Surprisingly, The Meg dominated the box office on Friday with a very summer-like opening day of $16.5 million. There were some who thought the film wouldn’t earn that much during the entire weekend. Our prediction wasn’t that pessimistic, but this result still blows it out of the water. The film earned 51% positive reviews and a B plus from CinemaScore. Both results are fine. They are nothing special, but also nothing to worry about. The genre does tend to be front-loaded, so a $40 million weekend isn’t not a sure thing, but more of a coin toss. Even if the film doesn’t reach that mark over its opening weekend, this will still be a major win for Warner Bros., which has not has a good year.
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August 10th, 2018
The Meg earned $4 million during its Thursday previews. This is about double what I was expecting and puts it on a clear path to over $30 million during its opening weekend. It will likely be front-loaded, as the reviews are barely above 50% positive and this genre of film tends to be front-loaded, even with good reviews. That said, it could match Annabelle: Creation’s opening from last year with just over $35 million. We will know more tomorrow when Friday’s estimates come in. The film also reportedly earned $16 million during its opening day in China, earning third place in the process. It’s going to be a busy weekend in China if a $16 million opening day is only good enough for third place.
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August 9th, 2018
There are four films opening wide or semi-wide this week. This includes Dog Days, which started on Wednesday. However, while it was released first, it is widely expected to be the last at the box office of the five wide releases. The Meg is widely expected to be the biggest new release of the week and it is the only film with a real shot at unseating Mission: Impossible—Fallout for top spot. I was expecting BlacKkKlansman to only open in limited release this week before trying to expand next week, but it is opening in 1,500 theaters giving it a real shot at a top five opening. Finally there’s Slender Man, a horror movie based on an internet meme that peaked years ago. It likely won’t be the worse box office performer of the weekend, but I’m not sure it will reach the top five. This weekend last year, Annabelle: Creation was the last blockbuster of summer opening with $35 million. No movie is going to match that this year. However, all three new releases made less than $50 million, while the four new releases could top that this weekend. I don’t think 2018 will win, but it should at least be close.
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August 1st, 2018
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Overall, July was a a little weaker than expected. Ant-Man and the Wasp appears to be on pace for $200 million, while it is too soon to tell if Mission: Impossible—Fallout will also get there. That said, 2018 is still ahead of 2017 by $550 million, so the month of July was a success in that regard. As for August, there’s only one movie that is expected to earn $100 million, Christopher Robin, and maybe a few others that could hit $50 million. It’s a rather sad slate of movies. Fortunately, last August was even worse, so 2018 should at least maintain its lead. Maybe we can get lucky and come away with a $600 million lead by the end of the month.
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