March 4th, 2018
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. We will announce the winners and have our reactions as they happen, while keeping track of how our readers did in predicting the outcomes.
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March 4th, 2018
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in Italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. For example, I will be happy no matter who wins Best Supporting Actress. One last note: The contest is still going and the leading for Best Picture Switched from The Shape of Water to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to tied over the time I was writing this story. This is the closest I’ve ever seen it. Guessing the best picture correctly will go a long way to winning.
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March 3rd, 2018
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The Independent Spirit Awards were handed out tonight, and Get Out was the big winner, sort of. It earned two Awards, including the two most prestigious, awards. However, it wasn’t the only film to pick up two awards tonight.
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February 27th, 2018
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two Screenwriting Categories, ending with with Best Original Screenplay. This category is actually competitive, which is the first time I’ve been able to say that so far this year. In fact, there are three nominees that have a reasonable shot at winning.
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January 23rd, 2018
The Oscar nominations were announced starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year and no one has been able to adequately explain why to me. At least there were some interesting results this year. The Shape of Water led the way with 13 nominations, which is one below the current record and nearly as many as the next two films combined. Overall, there were seventeen films that earned two or more nominations.
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January 20th, 2018
The Producers Guild of America awards were handed out last night. There are only three theatrical awards, plus a special award previously announced, and none of the results were truly surprising. In fact, two of them were completely predictable.
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January 5th, 2018
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The Producers Guild of America finally finished announcing their nominations. (They spread out their announcements for reasons I’ve never quite understood.) It is a strange year for the PGAs, as there was a tie resulting in 11 films being nominated for the top prize.
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January 4th, 2018
The Writers Guild of America is the latest group to announce award nominees. There are a lot of categories that WGA hand out awards for, but only three of them are for theatrical releases. The list of nominees include several major Awards Season players, and not a lot of surprises. The Big Sick, Lady Bird, The Disaster Artist, Get Out, The Shape of Water… We've seen almost all of these films appear on lists of nominations before.
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December 16th, 2017
Both the first installment First-run Releases and the second installment, TV on DVD releases, were shorter than I would have liked, as this hasn’t been a great year for either wide releases or TV on DVD releases. That said, the third installment of our Holiday Gift Guide deals with limited releases, classics, and foreign imports and this list can get out of hand rather quickly. There will more releases on this list than the previous two, starting with...
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December 13th, 2017
The Screen Actors Guild were the third group to announce their nominations for this awards season. So far there have been three different films earning the most nominations. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri picked up four nominations, which is extra impressive, as there are only six theatrical categories.
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December 11th, 2017
The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. Sort of. (WGA announced the nominations for TV, radio, etc., but not their theatrical nods.) It is still very early in the year, so it is hard to say if there are any real snubs, or if there are any real favorites. The Shape of Water led the way with seven nominations, while The Post and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri were right behind with six a piece.
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November 22nd, 2017
The Independent Spirit Awards nominations were announced yesterday and thus the 2017 Awards Season begins. The movie with the most nominations is Call Me by Your Name, which opens on Friday. This is amazingly good timing. It’s not the only film that should get a financial boost.
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September 20th, 2017
I think it is a really good week on the home market. The biggest release of the week is Wonder Woman, which is also one of the best wide releases of the year. The extras are strong and the Blu-ray Combo Pack / 3D Combo Pack are Pick of the Week contenders. It isn’t the winner, as The Big Sick is one of the best movies I’ve seen all year and the DVD / Blu-ray Combo Pack is loaded with extras.
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September 17th, 2017
The Big Sick is the biggest limited release of the year earning over $40 million. This puts it ahead of many wide releases, including Ghost in the Shell, Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, and King Arthur Legend of the Sword, all of which cost more than $100 million to make. Is this film as good as its box office numbers? Or did it benefit from an historically weak summer?
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September 6th, 2017
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Labor Day long weekend wasn’t nearly as bad we were expecting, but it still wasn’t what you could call good. There were two films to earn more than $10,000 on the theater average chart, which is better than we’ve seen some weeks this year; however, those were the only two new releases to come close to $10,000. Dolores opened in one theater earning $13,534 and this is amazing for a documentary. Viceroy’s House earned an average of $12,034 in four theaters.
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September 5th, 2017
There are a few first-run releases coming out this week, but none of them did well enough in theaters and / or with critics to bother with above the fold, so to speak. There is one exception, The Big Sick, but it is only coming out on VOD this week. I’m hoping a Blu-ray screener is on its way. As for the Pick of the Week contenders, they are, in alphabetical order, Emmet Otter’s Jug-Band Christmas on DVD, Mr. Mom on Blu-ray, and Rebecca: Criterion Collection on Blu-ray. In the end, I went with the Alfred Hitchcock classic as the Pick of the Week.
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August 16th, 2017
Ingrid Goes West opened in first place on the theater average chart with an average of $45,100 in three theaters. This is the third best average of the year behind The Big Sick (average of $84,315 in five) and The Beguiled ($57,323 in four). A24 had another success with Good Time earning an average of $31,275 in four theaters. The Trip to Spain opened with an average of $15,102 in three theaters, which is in the middle of the franchise average so far. Finally there’s Wind River, which was the only holdover in the $10,000 club. It managed an average of $13,615 in 45 theaters and already has nearly $1 million in limited release.
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August 9th, 2017
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The Weinstein Co. is breathing a huge sign of relief as Wind River had the best theater average of the weekend with $40,390 in four theaters. This is the fourth best average of the year behind The Big Sick (average of $84,315 in five); The Beguiled ($57,323 in four); and Beauty and the Beast ($41,508 in just over 4,200). Wolf Warriors 2 saw its theater average grow to $15,843. The final film in the $10,000 club was Columbus, which earned an average of $13,410 in two theaters.
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August 5th, 2017
On the positive side, The Dark Tower topped the chart on Friday. On the negative side, it missed both our original prediction, as well as our lowered expectations with just $7.725 million. The film’s reviews are terrible at 19% positive, while its CinemaScore is a mere B, so that’s bad news for the film’s legs, putting it on pace for between $18 million and $19 million. It’s good news for Dunkirk, which has a real shot at first place on the weekend chart for the third weekend in a row.
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August 3rd, 2017
August has begun, but I’m starting to think Summer has already ended. The Dark Tower was expected to be the big hit of the weekend, but its reviews are a lot weaker than anticipated. Kidnap is also opening wide and its early reviews were good, but that has changed as the day has gone on. Furthermore, it’s buzz is really quiet, so its box office chances are not good. Finally Detroit is expanding wide this weekend. Its reviews are among the best we’ve seen all summer, but it is tough to go from a limited release to a wide release, so I’m not overly optimistic. This weekend last year, Suicide Squad opened with $133.68 million. It is very likely the entire box office will be less than $133.68 million this weekend. 2017 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 2nd, 2017
This weekend’s winner on the theater average chart is an unusual one. It is rare for documentaries to get a sequel and it is rare for documentaries to land in first place on the theater average chart. An Inconvenient Sequel opened with an average of $31,206 in four theaters, which is a good sign going forward. Menashe looks like it will be another success for A24, as it earned an average of $20,693 in three theaters. Detroit is planning to expand wide on Friday, so its average of $17,510 in 20 theaters is a good start. Brigsby Bear was the final film in the $10,000 club earning an average of $13,217 in three theaters.
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July 26th, 2017
The number one film on the overall weekend box office chart, Dunkirk, was also the number one film on the theater average chart earning an average of $13,579. The best limited release was Landline with an average of $13,139 in four theaters. Its reviews suggest it won’t maintain that average as it tries to expand. The final film in the $10,000 club was Girls Trip, which earned an average of $12,042. The film could have earned half that and it still would have been an okay opening for its production budget.
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July 25th, 2017
Both Dunkirk and Girls Trip topped expectations earning $50.51 million and $31.20 million respectively. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets didn’t do as well, but it should do well internationally. Overall, the weekend box office rose 11% from last weekend earning $181 million. On the downside, this was 7.8% lower than the same weekend last year and 2017 had already lost its lead over 2016, so this is really bad news. Year-to-date, 2017 is now behind 2016 by $31 million / 0.5% at $6.46 billion to $6.49 billion. Things really need to turn around soon, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. Hopefully the fall will be much better.
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July 18th, 2017
War for the Planet of the Apes earned first place on the weekend box office chart and the theater average chart with $13,989. The only other new release to come close to that was Lady Macbeth with an average of $12,907 in five theaters. Last week’s winner, Spider-Man: Homecoming, slipped to third place this weekend with an average of $10,167. It is still quite rare for a wide release to stay in the $10,000 club two weeks in a row, so this is a reason to celebrate.
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July 18th, 2017
The weekend box office chart didn’t hold a lot of surprises. War for the Planet of the Apes earned first place with a slightly better than predicted result of $56.26 million, while most of the rest of our predictions were also close enough to be considered victories. Overall, the box office plummeted 21% from last weekend reaching $163 million. This was also a little lower than the same weekend last year. The emphasis is on “little”, as it only dropped by 0.062% or about $100,000. On its own, this would be nothing to worry about. However, 2017’s lead over 2016 has completely evaporated and the year is now 0.19% or $12 million behind last year’s pace at $6.21 billion to $6.22 billion. We’ve lost about $200 million this summer compared to last year and I don’t see that turning around any time soon.
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July 16th, 2017
A weekend estimate just ahead of our prediction for War for the Planet of the Apes, and a one just below our prediction for Spider-Man: Homecoming means there’s a clear winner at the box office. War will come in with $56.5 million, per Fox’s Sunday morning estimate, while Homecoming will finish second with $45.2 million.
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July 15th, 2017
As expected, War for the Planet of the Apes earned first place on Friday. To match predictions, the film needed to make between $18 million and $19 million, but instead it earned $22.1 million during its first day of release. Furthermore, this is better than its previews were, so this suggests good word-of-mouth and longer than average legs. Its reviews are 94% positive and it earned a solid A from CinemaScore, so long legs wouldn’t be a shock. Perhaps it can reach $60 million over the weekend. Anything less than $55 million will be a little disappointing. Splitting the difference gets us a weekend target of $57 million.
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July 13th, 2017
War for the Planet of the Apes is going to be the biggest of the three wide releases coming out this week. This much is a near certainty. However, there is some doubt if it will open in first place, or if Spider-Man: Homecoming will remain the top draw over the weekend. The only other wide release of the week is Wish Upon, a low-budget horror film, if it can just reach the top five, then the studio will be very happy. Finally, The Big Sick is expanding wide. Given its limited release run so far, it should become a sleeper hit over the summer. This weekend last year, The Secret Life of Pets and Ghostbusters had a one-two punch of nearly $100 million. I think War for the Planet of the Apes and Spider-Man: Homecoming will top that figure, while the overall depth should help 2017 win in the year-over-year competition, but it will likely be close.
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July 11th, 2017
There was a really close race on the theater chart this week with Spider-Man: Homecoming topping A Ghost Story $26,915 to $26,008. The only other film to top $10,000 was The Big Sick, which earned an average of $10,971 in 326 theaters.
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July 9th, 2017
A $117 million opening weekend is pretty much all Sony could ask for from Spider-Man: Homecoming. It’s the second-best debut for the Spider-Man franchise, if you ignore the effects of inflation, and makes it almost certain that the franchise will break its unfortunate streak of earning less at the domestic box office with every new outing. With, reportedly, a more constrained budget—this is the least expensive Spider-Man film, adjusted for inflation—profitability looks assured, and Sony’s partnership with Disney looks as though it’s paying off.
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July 7th, 2017
Next weekend is busier than this weekend with two wide releases and a wide expansion; however, War for the Planet of the Apes will tower over Wish Upon and The Big Sick and it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for War for the Planet of the Apes.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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July 6th, 2017
The Little Hours led the way on the theater average chart with an average of $30,780 in two theaters. This is Gunpowder and Sky’s first release, which makes its first place finish even more impressive. Last week’s winner, The Big Sick, held on well in second place with an average of $23,267 in 71 theaters. The only other film in the $10,000 club was the overall first place film, Despicable Me 3, which earned an average of $15,993.
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July 2nd, 2017
With July 4 falling on a Tuesday this year, this is less a holiday weekend, and more the beginning of a holiday week, and it’s bookended by new releases from two of the industry’s most reliable franchises. Despicable Me 3 starts off festivities this weekend with a solid-but-unspectacular $75.4 million from a record-setting 4,529 theaters. Breaking The Twilight Saga: Eclipse’s record for widest opening weekend of all time is no small feat for Universal, but it’s an ominous sign for the franchise that the only film to open in close to this number of theaters and pull in similar numbers at the box office was Shrek Forever After, which opened with $70.8 million in 4,359 theaters back in 2010. That was the last Shrek movie, and this might be a good time for Gru to call it a day.
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July 1st, 2017
I hate it when the first of the month lands on a Saturday. By the time this story goes live, we will still have almost no box office data for Despicable Me 3, so we won’t know if June ended on a positive note. Fortunately, Wonder Woman beat expectations and might end up as the biggest hit of the summer, at least for a little while. July begins with Spider-Man: Homecoming, which should make at least $300 million and is the last film being released this summer that has a shot at being a $400 million hit domestically. It is very likely that nothing else this month will come within $100 million of that movie, so that could help its legs. There are a few potential $100 million hits, including War for the Planet of the Apes, Dunkirk, and a couple of other long shots. Last July had a similar feel with The Secret Life of Pets topping the list with well over $300 million, while there were five other $100 million hits. This July would have to beat expectations substantially to match this performance. I’m not confident 2017 will be able to maintain its pace at the box office. I’m worried at least one big film will struggled and 2017 will end the month behind 2016’s pace.
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June 28th, 2017
Two limited releases that came out this past weekend topped the previous theater average record for 2017. The Big Sick earned an average of $84,315 in five theaters, which bodes well for its planned wide expansion in a couple of weeks. The Beguiled was next with an average of $57,323 in four theaters. Both of these are well ahead of the $41,508 average Beauty and the Beast earned during its opening weekend. The only other film in the $10,000 club was the overall number one film, Transformers: The Last Knight, which earned an average of $10,981.
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June 25th, 2017
A tepid $45.3 million Friday-to-Sunday domestic weekend for Transformers: The Last Knight is pretty much unmitigated bad news for Paramount Pictures. The studio is in desperate need of a hit, and the Transformers franchise is by far their biggest property. Even including the film’s grosses from Wednesday and Thursday, its $69 million debut is barely in the top ten for the year so far, and poor reviews and a B+ CinemaScore mean that it won’t have significant legs, even with a bit of help from the upcoming July 4 weekend. So all eyes are going to be on its overseas performance.
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June 24th, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight suffered a 48% plummet on Thursday to earn just $8.14 million; however, it bounced back on Friday with $13.69 million. If we again compare this to Dark of the Moon, which is the last film in the franchise to open on a Wednesday, we get mixed messages. The Last Knight fell faster on Thursday (48% to 43%) but bounced back more on Friday (68% to 53%). If we assume The Last Knight will continue to outperform Dark of the Moon over the rest of the weekend, then it will earn about $42 million over the three-day weekend and $66 million over five. This is the worst opening in the franchise by a wide margin, but there is good news for Paramount, as the film earned $41.46 million during its first day in China, and $47.55 million if you include previews. The international numbers will save this film and justify more sequels.
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June 23rd, 2017
Not many limited releases are earning any real buzz this week. The Beguiled has the best pedigree and its reviews might be good enough to help it thrive in theaters. The Bad Batch is the biggest in terms of theaters, but its box office potential is close to zero. This leaves The Big Sick as the best new release. That said, if you are not near one of the five theaters it is playing, you could always stay home and binge GLOW on Netflix. I reviewed it this week and it is worth the praise.
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June 12th, 2017
Romantic comedy starring Kumail Nanjiani, Zoe Kazan, Holly Hunter, and Ray Romano, directed by Judd Apatow opens June 23 ... Full Movie Details.
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