December 16th, 2017
Both the first installment First-run Releases and the second installment, TV on DVD releases, were shorter than I would have liked, as this hasn’t been a great year for either wide releases or TV on DVD releases. That said, the third installment of our Holiday Gift Guide deals with limited releases, classics, and foreign imports and this list can get out of hand rather quickly. There will more releases on this list than the previous two, starting with...
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November 23rd, 2017
It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, and normally franchise box sets as well, but this year none jump out as essential additions to the Holiday Gift guide. Worse still, 2017 has been awful at the box office with potential blockbuster after potential blockbuster getting savaged by critics and struggling at the box office. Additionally, some of the biggest and some of the best have been on the home market for nearly half a year, meaning nearly everyone who would want them, already own them. That doesn’t mean there are no films worth adding to this list, but the list is a little shorter than usual. On a side note, two of the films on this year’s list are from the MCU and it would have been three, but Thor: Ragnarok is still in theaters. If you know someone who loves the MCU, but has all of the movies, then check out this site, which has some more unique gift ideas. I specifically like the Spider-man Drone.
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November 22nd, 2017
The winners of our Christmas at Ground Zero contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Justice League’s opening weekend were...
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November 13th, 2017
It’s a bad week for screeners, as the screeners for both Atomic Blonde and Wind River are late. Both look like they are worth picking up, but not quite Pick of the Week material. There are a trio of contenders for this award: In This Corner of the World, Kedi, and Whose Streets? It was a close call, but in the end, Kedi came out on top.
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November 10th, 2017
Next weekend, Justice League will open and it will likely earn more than the rest of the box office combined will earn. Because of this, it is the only choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Justice League.
We are continuing our Christmas contest, but we do have a studio prize this week: Atomic Blonde on Blu-ray Combo Pack. Whomever comes the closest, regardless if they go over or not, will win a copy of Atomic Blonde on Blu-ray combo pack. The other two winners will either get a Christmas present or a lump of coal. The present will include a couple of movies, TV shows, maybe some kids DVDs, etc., while the lump of coal will be the last of my HD-DVD titles, while they last, as well as something from the prize pool.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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November 8th, 2017
The winners of our End of the World contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Jigsaw’s opening weekend were...
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October 25th, 2017
There are not many films on this week’s list of home market releases, but there are several bigger titles making their home market debut. Some, like Cars 3, are only coming out on Video on Demand, but there are also some serious Pick of the Week contenders hitting DVD / Blu-ray as well. Of these contenders, War for the Planet of the Apes has the best combination of reviews and extras on the Blu-ray Combo Pack.
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August 8th, 2017
The Dark Tower opened on the very low end of expectation with just $19.15 million over the weekend. The rest of the box office was more or less in line with predictions, leading to a $122 million haul, which is a 15% decline from last weekend. A 15% decline is pretty normal this time of year. What isn’t normal is a decline of 47% from last year; a year-over-year decline like that normally only happens when there’s a misalignment in holiday, but it wasn’t a surprise, as Suicide Squad earned more last year than the entire box office earned this year. 2017 was already behind 2016’s pace by a large amount, but that deficit more than doubled from last weekend and is now $270 million or 3.8% at $6.89 billion to $7.17 billion. Remember, 2017 started the summer about $200 million ahead of 2016, so the summer has been a disaster at the box office.
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August 4th, 2017
The Dark Tower got off to a soft start with $1.8 million in previews last night. This is on the low end of expectations, but not a complete disaster. It is about 20% higher than Atomic Blonde earned last weekend and if the film has the same legs, this will result in a $21 million to $22 million opening weekend. Even if it just matches the the average previews to weekend multiplier so far this summer, it would open with $18 million over the weekend. That would still be enough for first place, and quite frankly, it’s not that bad for a film that cost $60 million to make. The average international to domestic ratio this year has been about 2 to 1. If The Dark Tower earns $50 million domestically and $100 million internationally, then it will break even sometime on the home market. On the other hand, its reviews have been simply terrible and that could sink it to the $15 million level, giving Dunkirk a real shot at first place.
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August 3rd, 2017
The winners of our Going Nuclear contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Atomic Blonde’s opening weekend were...
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August 1st, 2017
Summer is coming to a close, as the two new releases, The Emoji Movie and Atomic Blonde had okay openings over the weekend. Dunkirk was able to earn first place with $26.61 million, which is great news for that movie, but bad news for the overall box office, as it is the worst result for a number one film since April. Overall, the box office fell 20% from last week to $144 million. This is 24% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 is now behind 2016 by 1.7% or $120 million at $6.70 billion to $6.82 billion.
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July 30th, 2017
A solid second weekend will be enough to keep Dunkirk at the top of the box office chart this weekend, as The Emoji Movie falls short of a par performance for a family-friendly animated film. Christopher Nolan’s war movie will fall 44% from it opening—a decent figure these days—to earn $28.1 million this time around, according to Warner Bros.’ projection released on Sunday morning. That will take it past $100 million domestically today, puts it on course for around $200 million domestically in total.
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July 29th, 2017
The weekend got off to a strange start with The Emoji Movie earning first place on Friday with $10.05 million. That’s the good news. The bad news is in the future. Not only is the film’s Tomatometer Score just 6% positive, not only are the critics aggressive in their negative reviews, but the film only managed a B from CinemaScore. Family films rarely earn less than a A minus from CinemaScore, so this will be devastating for its legs. That said, a $10.05 million start is still impressive and a second place, $28 million debut is enough that it will break even early in its home market run.
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July 28th, 2017
Atomic Blonde easily topped The Emoji Movie during previews, earning $1.52 million. However, had the action flick not topped the family film, it would have been a disaster. Compared to other recent action films, Atomic Blonde underperformed Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets ($1.7 million) and Baby Driver ($2.1 million), but at least it topped King Arthur: Legend of the Sword ($1.15 million). This summer, the average action film has opened with just over 10 times what it made during its previews, which is bad news for Atomic Blonde, as it puts the film’s opening weekend at $15 million to $16 million. Its reviews are good, but not great enough to really change this trend. Even $20 million would be a boon after this start.
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July 27th, 2017
The final weekend of July has two wide releases, Atomic Blonde and The Emoji Movie. Neither are expected to be monster hits, but both could be profitable at the box office. Atomic Blonde’s reviews are excellent and its connections to the John Wick movies could get people into theaters. The Emoji Movie still has no reviews and its buzz is incredibly negative. I haven’t seen buzz this negative since Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul. This does give Dunkirk a real shot at repeating on top of the chart. This weekend last year, Jason Bourne opened with nearly $60 million, which will likely be more than both new releases this year earn. Even if Dunkirk has better legs than expected, there’s little hope 2017 will win in the year-over-year comparison.
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July 27th, 2017
The winners of our Stick Together contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Dunkirk’s opening weekend were...
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July 20th, 2017
Next weekend could be one of the closest races we’ve seen all year. I can almost guarantee Atomic Blonde will have better previews and will top the chart on Friday; however, The Emoji Movie is just as likely to win on Saturday and that could be enough to win overall. It is literally a coin toss to pick the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest and Atomic Blonde won that toss. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Atomic Blonde.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Girls: Season Six on Blu-ray.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprise consisting of one TV on DVD release.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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July 1st, 2017
I hate it when the first of the month lands on a Saturday. By the time this story goes live, we will still have almost no box office data for Despicable Me 3, so we won’t know if June ended on a positive note. Fortunately, Wonder Woman beat expectations and might end up as the biggest hit of the summer, at least for a little while. July begins with Spider-Man: Homecoming, which should make at least $300 million and is the last film being released this summer that has a shot at being a $400 million hit domestically. It is very likely that nothing else this month will come within $100 million of that movie, so that could help its legs. There are a few potential $100 million hits, including War for the Planet of the Apes, Dunkirk, and a couple of other long shots. Last July had a similar feel with The Secret Life of Pets topping the list with well over $300 million, while there were five other $100 million hits. This July would have to beat expectations substantially to match this performance. I’m not confident 2017 will be able to maintain its pace at the box office. I’m worried at least one big film will struggled and 2017 will end the month behind 2016’s pace.
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June 16th, 2017
Thriller starring Charlize Theron opens July 28 ... Full Movie Details.
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