February 17th, 2023
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The Ant-Man sub-franchise has always been one of the quieter corners of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, with the first Ant-Man film opening with $57.2 million back in 2015, and Ant-Man and the Wasp debuting to $75.8 million in 2018. With that track record, and the post-pandemic market, an opening over $60 million should be considered a success for Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania. It’s been tracking ahead of that number for a while though, and its Thursday previews suggest it will top $100 million this weekend—a welcome boost for a market that’s been waiting quite a while for a major release.
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November 19th, 2018
It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases and franchise box sets as well. Unfortunately, 2018 has not been a good year for blockbusters for any studio not named Disney. In order to be on this list, a film has to be a major release, earn critical praise, and be on out DVD / Blu-ray and that’s a really short list this year. For example, Universal is the second best studio this year in terms of total domestic box office, but they’ve only released one film that has earned $100 million and overwhelmingly positive reviews. That film, Halloween doesn’t come out on DVD / Blu-ray till January. Most of the rest of the big six are lucky to have more than one entry on this week’s list.
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January 15th, 2016
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The Oscar nominations were announced at 5:30 am Pacific time. Nothing is good that early in the morning. Worse still, this was a terrible year for snubs, especially when it comes to diversity of the nominees. The voters for the Oscars are 94% white and 77% male... but that's still more diverse than the list of nominees. The Revenant led the way with 12 nominations and it is expected to win a few of those, while it is a serious contender in most of the categories it was nominated in.
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January 9th, 2016
The BAFTA nominations were announced and you can read them on their site... in alphabetical order. Alphabetical order is very useful in most circumstances, but not here. On the other hand, the nominees within each category are not presented in alphabetical order. ... Are the BAFTAs trolling us? As for the actual nominees, the big winners here are Bridge of Spies and Carol, both of which earned nine nominations. For Carol, this is just another impressive score, but this was a pleasant surprise for Bridge of Spies.
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December 7th, 2015
It is both a good week and a bad week on the home market. The top two releases are Ant-Man and Minions, which made more than $500 million and $1 billion globally, respectively. It's rare you get a one-two punch like that on top. However, the competition for those two films is much, much weaker. The third best-selling release, according to Amazon.com, is the Marvel Cinematic Universe: Phase Two Box Set. It looks amazing, which is why it led this years Holiday Gift Guide, but I'm not sure there are a lot of people who will be willing to spend $200 on a box set when they likely own all or most of the movies. Beyond that, there's mostly TV on DVD releases. The competition for Pick of the Week is also not very deep with Ant-Man coming out on top.
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December 6th, 2015
Ant-Man had the fourth worst global box office for a film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. It earned over $500 million and was still the fourth worst in the franchise's run. That's impressive. One of the reasons for the franchise's success is the quality. No MCU film has earned a Tomatometer Score below the overall positive level, this includes Ant-Man. Is it worthy of this? Or is this the first MCU film I didn't like?
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November 27th, 2015
It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, as well as franchise box sets. I'm going to try to keep it to a dozen or so releases, as these columns are notorious for getting out of hand. Also, while there were a record number of $1 billion box office hits, there were not as many first run releases that earned stellar reviews this year.
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November 17th, 2015
It's an off week of sorts. The biggest release is extended edition of The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies. In fact, there are five versions of this film that are near the top of the list. There are not a lot of other first-run releases on this week's list, which means we have to look to the classics for potential Pick of the Week contenders. Fortunately, there are plenty of those worth picking up. Leading the way is The Collected Works of Hayao Miyazaki on Blu-ray. It is expensive, but you get a lot for your money. There is another top-notch release this week, Rush - R40 Live on DVD or Blu-ray, which wins the coveted Puck of the Week for best Canadian release.
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November 5th, 2015
Spectre opened in first place with $80.4 million during its seven-day opening weekend. That doesn't seem like a huge amount, especially considering some of the opening weekends we've seen on the international stage this year. However, there is a mitigating factor. It was only playing in six markets. This includes the U.K., where the film broke records with $62.82 million in 651 theaters. This is equivalent to a $300 million opening week here, which would be the record for a seven-day box office here. We shouldn't get too ahead of ourselves, as Bond films have a natural affinity for that market. It does mean Spectre has a real shot at a $100 million opening weekend here.
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October 28th, 2015
The Martian returned to first place with $30.0 million in 73 markets for totals of $218.8 million internationally and $385.0 million worldwide. The film's only major market opening was in France where it earned second place with $6.81 million on 560 screens. It also remained in first place in South Korea with $3.99 million on 731 screens over the weekend for a three-week total of $28.43 million. I don't know if it has broken even yet, but it is very close to getting there.
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October 22nd, 2015
Ant-Man made a triumphant return to the international chart with a first place, $43.5 million run in 3 markets for totals of $275.9 million internationally and $454.7 million worldwide. Nearly all of this weekend haul came from China, where the film opened in first place with $42.77 million. (Some are reporting it came in second place to Goodbye Mr. Loser, but they are comparing the film's weekly total to Ant-Man's opening weekend.) Depending on how much money the film cost to advertise worldwide, it might have broken even already. If not, it will get there very early in its home market run.
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September 23rd, 2015
The Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials rose to first place with $43.3 million in 67 markets over the weekend for a total of $78.0 million internationally and $108.3 million worldwide. The film's biggest opening came from South Korea, but it only managed second place there with $5.66 million on 804 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.20 million. On the other hand, the film dominated the Russian box office with $4.19 million on 2,328 screens. The original movie opened stronger in Russia, but The Scorch Trials performed better in its opening in South Korea. Given these results, it is still too soon to tell how well this film will do compared to its predecessor. That said, it already has more worldwide than it cost to make. In fact, it almost has enough worldwide to pay for its entire production budget. Its advertising budget would have to be much larger than expected for it to not break even sooner rather than later.
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September 17th, 2015
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation rocketed up the chart into first place with $91.3 million in 63 markets over the weekend... sort of. This includes $86.42 million during the film's six-day opening in China. Its three-day weekend number is a lot smaller than that, but still enough for first place. Overall, the film now has $424.8 million internationally and $612.9 million worldwide. It became only the second film in the franchise to reach the $600 million mark worldwide. This is more than enough to break even, so it should come as no surprise that there's another installment in the works.
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September 10th, 2015
Terminator: Genisys remained in first place on the international chart, but with only $11.5 million in 8 markets. This lifted its international total to $346.3 million, while it now has $435.9 million worldwide. This helped the film become the second biggest hit in the franchise, assuming you don't take inflation into account. In China, the film managed $26.67 million, but that was for the full week, giving the film a total of $111.92 million after 15 days of release.
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August 13th, 2015
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation expanded over the weekend and saw its weekend haul grow, but by a tiny amount. It pulled in $65.5 million in 59 markets over the weekend for totals of $156.7 million internationally and $264.5 million worldwide. The film earned first place in a trio of major markets, led by Russia where it made $4.07 million on 1,125 screens. It also debuted in Germany ($2.84 million on 612) and Spain ($1.73 million on 603). On the other hand, it had to settle for second place in Japan with $4.60 million on 600 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $6.07 million. Jurassic World earned first place in Japan, so that's hardly a poor opening. Its biggest market overall was South Korea, where it made $6.57 million on 818 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $31.99 million. The film is below average for the franchise so far, but that's still enough to break even and justify yet another installment.
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August 11th, 2015
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Despite what conventional wisdom was predicting, Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation remained in first place, as Fantastic Four missed even our low expectations. The Gift also did well, but the other two wide releases opened on the low end of expectations. Overall, the box office fell 8.3% from last weekend down to $132 million, so according to that number, it is safe to say summer is fading fast. Worse still, compared to last year, the box office was 29% lower, which is terrible and a clear sign that summer is already over. Granted, 2015 still has a solid lead over 2014, at $6.88 billion to $6.51 billion. A lead of 5.7% at this time of year is great and it would take an epic collapse for that to disappear anytime soon. I don't think 2015 will bounce back and start padding its lead any time soon, but I also don't think it will have 29% deficits week after week either.
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August 6th, 2015
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation opened in first place on the international chart with $64.5 million in 41 markets. Its biggest opening by far came in South Korea, where it made $13.80 million on 1,202 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $16.90 million. That total opening was more than twice the film's second biggest opening, $8.31 million in 572 theaters in the U.K. The film also had major market openings in Mexico ($4.17 million) and in Australia ($3.68 million). The film has yet to open in most major markets, including Germany, Russia, Spain, and Japan. The film opens in all four this weekend, so it should strong on the international chart.
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August 4th, 2015
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation matched expectations close enough to call it a victory. Meanwhile, Vacation came within 10% of Friday's predictions, but unfortunately, we weren't predicting box office success, so that's not a good thing. With the holdovers slumping as summer ends, the overall box office dipped 3.2% from last weekend. That's not the problem. The problem is the 21% drop-off from the same weekend last year. Granted, Guardians of the Galaxy broke records when it opened this weekend last year, but a 21% drop-off is still troublesome. 2015 still leads 2014 by a substantial margin at $6.67 billion to $6.25 billion, so unless 2015 really crashes, it will still have a lead going into the winter holidays.
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July 30th, 2015
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation shouldn't have any trouble earning first place over the weekend. In fact, it should make more than the rest of the top five combined. On the downside, its real competition isn't the other films in theaters, but Guardians of the Galaxy, which set the August weekend box office record when it opened this weekend last year. Rogue Nation could have a record-opening for the franchise and still not come close to Guardians of the Galaxy. The only other new wide release of the week is Vacation, which started on Wednesday. Its reviews are terrible and its box office chances are not much better. Since nothing will top Guardians of the Galaxy's record-breaking opening, it seems 2015 will end the month on a losing note. Hopefully this is just a momentary hiccup and not an omen for how the rest of the summer will go.
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July 29th, 2015
Monster Hunt remained in first place on the international chart with $46 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $225 million. The film again dominated its home market (China) earning $113.16 million over the full week for a running tally of $221.41 million after eleven days of release. It became the biggest Chinese film in its native market and the third biggest film of all time, behind Transformers: Age of Extinction and the current record holder, Furious 7.
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July 28th, 2015
Ant-Man unexpectedly repeated on top of the weekend box office, as Pixels failed to meet expectations by a sizable margin. In fact, only Southpaw beat expectations. The overall box office sunk as a result, down 22% from last weekend to $151 million. Worse still, this was 2.3% lower than the same weekend last year. Fortunately, 2015 has won a lot more weeks than it has lost and has built up an impressive 8.2% lead over 2014 at $6.45 billion to $5.96 billion. It isn't impossible for 2015 to lose a lead that large, but I'm cautiously optimistic that it can see this lead grow through to the end of the year.
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July 26th, 2015
Three new wide releases and three returning movies that are still pulling in good crowds will produce a box office chart with no knock-out winner this weekend. That’s in large part thanks to a disappointing debut from Pixels. The Adam Sandler/Kevin James-comedy/adventure-Ghostbusters/wannabe will earn about $24 million this weekend, according to Sony’s Sunday estimate. That puts it in danger of not even earning back its marketing budget domestically, let alone starting to recover the $88 million production budget. It also means that Ant-Man will top the charts for a second weekend.
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July 25th, 2015
Three mid-tier new releases combined with three returning hits made for a very crowded market on Friday, with all six films earning over $5 million for the day. Pixels emerged the winner with $9.2 million, according to studio estimates, but that far from guarantees a weekend win for the film. Based on previous opening weekend ratios for Adam Sandler movies, we can expect a Friday-weekend multiplier for the film around 2.9, which puts it on course for a $27 million debut. Current studio tracking suggests it will fall short of that mark, with more like $24 million. Either way, that’s not a great start for a film with an $88 million budget and a seemingly attractive premise. Sandler’s drawing power is clearly on the wane, at least domestically. The film has somewhat better prospects overseas, and early reports show it performing well.
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July 24th, 2015
Pixels leads a group of three wide releases looking to battle for limited box office dollars. It appears to be on track for first place, but with not as much as I anticipated at the beginning of the month. This is partially explained by its reviews which are lower than the 30% to 40% positive range I was anticipating. Paper Towns is earning much better reviews, but still barely above the overall positive level. Finally there's Southpaw, which is earning mixed reviews and its buzz is weak, so it will likely be outside the top five over the weekend. Both Ant-Man and Minions should continue to perform well, with the former having a shot at first place, if Pixels flops. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases that did quite well, Lucy and Hercules. I don't think any of the new releases this week will come close to earning the same as Lucy did, but I think the depth is better this year, so 2015 will still come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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July 23rd, 2015
It is a special week on the international chart, as we have an international film in first place. Monster Hunt earned first place in China with an estimated $72 million over the weekend and a total opening of $107.58 million. (This includes less than $1 million in early previews.) This movie is a romantic comedy, of sorts, set in a world of CGI monsters. This is the kind of film that could have appeal in many markets outside of the usual markets Chinese films play in. Additionally, this is the kind of opening that will make distributors here interested in obtaining the rights. It is too soon to tell if it will have a global run, but it will be worth keeping an eye on.
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July 23rd, 2015
The winners of our Ant Machina contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Ant Man opening weekend were...
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July 22nd, 2015
The $10,000 club was led by Irrational Man with $175,312 in five theaters for an average of $35,062. While this was the best average of the weekend, it was the weakest opening weekend for a Woody Allen movie since You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger. The Stanford Prison Experiment was next with an average of $18,757 in two theaters. Its reviews are good, but not great, so its chances to expand significantly are still just 50/50. Up next is a pair of wide releases, Ant-Man and Minions, which earned averages of $14,841 and $11,430 respectively. The final entrant in the $10,000 club was Bajrangi Bhaijaan with an average of $10,239; however, it was playing in 256 theaters and arguably it had the most impressive opening for any limited release this week. This is the second weekend in a row a Bollywood film did this well on the per theater chart.
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July 20th, 2015
The top of the box office had a small surprise, as Ant-Man earned first place with $57.23 million over the weekend. This is a little lower than predicted, but Minions really collapsed, so Ant-Man easily won the race for the top of the box office race. Meanwhile, Trainwreck had a solid third place opening and could be on its way to $100 million, thanks in part to its target demographic and to its reviews. Overall, the box office pulled in $194 million. This is 9.6% lower than last weekend, but more importantly, it is 30% higher than the same weekend last year. 30%. That's a massive margin of victory. Year-to-date, 2015 has pulled in $6.20 billion, which is 8.1% more than 2014's pace. Summer is winding down, so 2015 is in a great place moving into the slower part of the year. Even if August and September are slower than average, there's almost no chance 2015 will blow through the $460 million lead it has over 2014.
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July 19th, 2015
Perhaps we’re seeing the first signs of multiplex fatigue? In the midst of a buoyant Summer at the movies, Ant-Man will debut with around $58 million, according to Sunday estimates, about 10% below expectations, and well short of the $94 million earned by Guardians of the Galaxy this time last year. It’s a very good opening, to be sure, but the second slightly disappointing debut from the Marvel Cinematic Universe this year, after The Avengers: Age of Ultron’s $191 million opening weekend back in May. We’re talking disappointment of the level of seeing Babe Ruth only hit one home run in a game here, so we need to put things in perspective. It’s the twelfth straight $50 million-plus opening for the franchise in seven years—an unprecedented box office run.
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July 18th, 2015
Ant-Man opened in first place with $22.64 million on Friday, which puts it well ahead of Minions on the Friday box office chart. On the other hand, it was a little disappointing compared to expectations. Figuring out where it will end up is deceptively tricky given the number of other Marvel Cinematic Universe films to compare it to. Ant-Man's reviews continued to tick up, and are now at 80% positive—in the same range as the first Captain America movie. It also had a similar opening day to that film. However, Captain America opened before The Avengers and one could argue that every film after that should be considered a sequel, which would tend them towards being even more front-loaded than original films. Factoring that in, look for Ant-Man to post around $56 million over its opening weekend, which will give it an easy first place debut. Unless its legs are as long as Guardians of the Galaxy’s, it won't reach $200 million in total, but it should top its budget (reportedly $130 million) so it will become a box office success. Analysts hoping for the first MCU bomb will have to wait.
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July 17th, 2015
Ant-Man posted a reported $6.4 million on Thursday evening, a healthy number for a movie that’s not a sequel. Although it sort of is a sequel, or at least sort of a franchise film. It’s certainly considered part of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, so looking for comparable Thursday night openings presents a bit of a challenge. The bottom line, though, looks as though the film is headed into the weekend a little ahead of expectations.
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July 16th, 2015
There could be an interesting race on top of the box office charts this weekend, as Ant-Man will be looking to unseat Minions. However, while I think Ant-Man will come out on top on Friday, I think Minions will repeat over the weekend. The other new release of the week is Trainwreck, which has seen its reviews fall from 100% positive to a mere 90% positive. The amazing reviews and the success of R-rated female-centric films lately suggests it has the potential to reach $100 million. Inside Out and Jurassic World will also both hit milestones, so it should be an exciting weekend. This weekend last year, none of the three wide releases were particularly strong, which left Dawn of the Planet of the Apes in first place for the second weekend in a row with $36.25 million. Both Minions and Ant-Man will top that. Trainwreck might top that as well. It should be a good weekend for 2015 in the year-over-year comparison.
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July 10th, 2015
Next weekend, there are are two wide releases, Ant-man and Trainwreck, and while I think Trainwreck will be a bigger hit than most analysts are predicting, Ant-man is still going to dominate the box office. Because of this, it is the clear choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Ant-man.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Ex Machina on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Ex Machina on DVD.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win a Frankenprize featuring a previously reviewed DVD or Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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July 1st, 2015
June was a much better month than expected due to two films, Jurassic World and Inside Out. Had those two films merely matched expectations, then 2015 would have likely fallen behind 2014. As for this coming month, there are five weekends in July and each week there is at least one film with the potential to reach $100 million. Most weeks there are two films that at least have a shot at getting to the century mark. The biggest hit of the month will likely be Minions, which has already opened in several international markets and it's ahead of Despicable Me 2 at the same point. That film made more than $300 million and nearly $1 billion worldwide, so any growth would be fantastic. There are also a number of potential $200 million films, led by Ant-man. Ant-man is the latest release in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, a franchise that has averaged $300 million domestically over eleven films and all of the past six films have reached at least $200 million. I'm not saying this one is guaranteed to do the same, but you can't dismiss that possibility. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation and Pixels have smaller chances to get to $200 million, but you have to at least entertain the possibility. Additionally, last July was a lot weaker than this July looks to be, so 2015 should win in the year-over-year comparison most weeks. Or I might have let the box office success of June cloud my judgment. We will soon find out.
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