October 6th, 2015
A lot of new releases from the week of September 8th reached the top 30 on the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for September 13th, but none were able to overtake Mad Max: Fury Road. The film sold 342,000 units / $8.29 million over the week for a two-week total of 1.34 million units / $30.99 million.
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September 28th, 2015
There were eight releases from the week of September 1st to reach the top 30 on the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for September 6th. This includes Mad Max: Fury Road, which sold 1.04 million units and generated $23.75 million in sales. There are three important notes. Firstly, the film's opening week Blu-ray share was 56%, which is excellent. Secondly, this was the first release to have opening week sales above 1 million units since Home debuted five weeks ago. Finally, these numbers don't include the Franchise Box Set, which opened in 16th place with 27,000 units / $1.51 million.
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September 17th, 2015
The winners of our The Perfect Prize contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Perfect Guy opening weekend were...
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September 8th, 2015
The home market is not particularly strong. The Age of Adaline is the biggest first-run release of the week, at least as far as physical releases are concerned. The Avengers: Age of Ultron is coming out on Video on Demand and it is bigger than all other releases combined. However, I really think it is a waste to rent it, as the Blu-ray is Pick of the Week material. Or to be more accurate, it will be Pick of the Week when it comes out in October. As for the Pick of the Week for this week, I'm going with Over the Garden Wall on DVD.
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September 7th, 2015
The Age of Adaline was a late April release, which is one of three dumping grounds throughout the calender. The big summer releases are just around the corner and are sucking up all of the available hype. Because of this, it is hard for a late April release to thrive and studios tend to dump misfires or counter-programming films during these weeks. So is The Age of Adaline a misfire? Or does it fit nicely into the counter-programming role?
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September 4th, 2015
Next weekend is the weekend after Labor Day long weekend, which is historically the worst weekend at the box office. This year appears to be a rare exception to that general rule, as there are two films opening wide, The Perfect Guy and The Visit, and neither is expected to truly bomb. Unfortunately for me, those two films are expected to be in a real coin toss for first place over the weekend. I was going to do some research to figure out which film is most likely to earn first place, but instead I went with literally a coin toss. ... The Perfect Guy won and is the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Perfect Guy.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of The Age of Adaline on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a second copy of The Age of Adaline on DVD.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a copy of Camilla Dickinson on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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September 2nd, 2015
The winners of our Check Up contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for We Are Your Friends opening weekend were...
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May 19th, 2015
The overall box office was a little stronger than expected, including the number one film. Pitch Perfect 2 did something very few sequels do. It opened with more during its first weekend than its predecessor made in total. Mad Max: Fury Road also opened with more than Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome earned in total, but it has 30 years of inflation and population growth of roughly 33% to help it out, so it is a less impressive feat. Because both wide releases were so strong, the overall box office grew by 40% from last weekend to $184 million. This was also 3.4% higher than the same weekend last year, which allowed 2015 to maintain its lead over 2014. At the moment, 2015 is ahead of 2014 by 3.2% or $120 million at $3.78 billion to $3.66 billion.
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May 14th, 2015
Mad Max: Fury Road and Pitch Perfect 2 both open wide this week. It is normally not a good idea to have two films competing for limited box office dollars, but these two films have divergent enough target audiences that it is unlikely that they will cannibalize each other too much. The Avengers: Age of Ultron will also still do well this weekend and help the overall box office do well. This weekend last year, Godzilla led the way with $93 million during its opening weekend. Neither Mad Max: Fury Road nor Pitch Perfect 2 will earn that much this weekend; however, they should earn more than that combined. Additionally, Age of Ultron should earn more than last year's second place film, Neighbors, and this depth could give 2015 the win in the year-over-year comparison.
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May 12th, 2015
As expected, The Avengers: Age of Ultron earned first place and Hot Pursuit earned second place. Unfortunately, they missed expectations in terms of raw numbers. They missed expectations so much that the box office fell 44% from last weekend to $131 million. Worse still, this is down 4.1% from the same weekend last year. 2015 still has a lead over 2014 by a margin of 4.6% at $3.57 billion to $3.41 billion. Unfortunately, I think this lead will start to slip this week.
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May 7th, 2015
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The Avengers: Age of Ultron will continue to lead the way at the box office this weekend, but Hot Pursuit hopes to at least put in a good showing as counter-programming. Its reviews suggest that will be an uphill battle. Additionally, Age of Ultron will probably suffer a pretty big drop when compared to last week, because it is a comic book movie, its a sequel and its reviews are lower than its predecessor's were. This weekend last year, Neighbors opened with close to $50 million. Age of Ultron will earn more than that. It could earn more than Neighbors and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 made combined, while Hot Pursuit will make twice what the two counter-programming releases made last year. 2015 should come away with an easy win.
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May 5th, 2015
That question mark in the headline isn't a mistake, as some actually consider The Avengers: Age of Ultron's opening a disappointment, but I don't think that's fair. Sure, it opened below expectations, but it still managed more than $190 million, which is the second-biggest opening of all time. Some still consider this a disappointing opening, because the biggest opening film of all time was the original The Avengers. Second biggest opening weekend of all time and it is still considered a disappointment by some. We are living in a weird world. Overall, the box office was $233 million, which was 139% more than last weekend. It was also 51% more than the same weekend last year. Growth like this usually only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays, but it makes sense when you compare the openings of Age of Ultron and The Amazing Spider-Man 2. 2015's lead over 2014 nearly doubled over the weekend to $110 million at $3.38 billion to $3.28 billion. A 3.3% lead is not amazing, but it is enough that the industry should be more than happy.
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May 3rd, 2015
The Avengers: Age of Ultron looks set to fall just short of the all-time box office record this weekend, based on Disney’s Sunday morning weekend projection. There were already signs it would struggle after Friday’s numbers were announced, and Saturday’s $57 million day leaves the film with much too much to do on Sunday to break the record. Disney is projecting $187.66 million as of this morning, and I expect the film to come in a shade below that, based on other tracking. It’s pretty hard to call $188 million a disappointing weekend, although it is short of most expectations. The film still has plenty of entries in the record books to celebrate.
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May 1st, 2015
The summer blockbuster season starts in earnest this weekend with the release of The Avengers: Age of Ultron. The film will open in first place, obviously, but the real question is whether or not it will top its predecessor. The first film opened with just over $207 million, which remains the record for an opening weekend. There is a better than 50/50 chance that the record will fall this weekend. If it doesn’t, you can expect a lot of film journalists writing stories about the end of the “Age of Marvel” / “Age of Super Heroes.” I have a funny feeling many of them are already written in anticipation of this possibility. The rest of the top five will be mostly an afterthought. This weekend last year, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 opened with $91.61 million over the weekend. Age of Ultron should make more than that opening day. 2015 is going to win the year-over-year comparison with ease.
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April 29th, 2015
The winners of our Age of Prize, Part I contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Age of Adaline opening weekend were...
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April 27th, 2015
As expected, Furious 7 completed the sweep winning every single weekend in April. Thankfully, every film in the top five matched or exceeded predictions, including The Age of Adaline, which had a solid third place opening. However, the overall box office still fell 18% from last weekend to just $97 million. This was also 16% lower than the same weekend last year. 2015 is still ahead of 2014 by a margin of 2.3% at $3.13 billion to $3.06 billion.
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April 26th, 2015
Furious 7 will once more hold on to the title of top movie at the box office this weekend, becoming the first film since Guardians of the Galaxy to do so for four weekends, and the first since The Hunger Games to be number one for four straight weeks. Furious 7 will also become this weekend only the third title, after Avatar and Titanic, to hit $1 billion in international box office earnings. Universal is estimating an international total of $1.001 billion, including $323 million in China—an all-time record for that territory.
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April 23rd, 2015
The Age of Adaline is the only true wide release this week, and that could give it a boost at the box office. However, I seriously doubt that will give it a large enough boost to top Furious 7, which is looking to sweep the month of April. There is one other new release, Little Boy, that has a shot at the top ten. Finally, Ex Machina is expanding “nationwide.” I don't have a theater count for the film, but many think it will be truly wide, which would give it a shot at the top five. The Other Woman opened in first place this weekend last year, earning nearly $25 million. There’s no chance any film will match that figure this year. The top two films combined might not match that figure this year, so April will end on a losing note in the year-over-year comparison. That’s disappointing, but we will make up for the loss next week.
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April 17th, 2015
Next week The Age of Adaline is likely the only film opening truly wide. And the week after that, The Age of Ultron opens wide. ... That's a strange coincidence. Anyhoo... The Age of Adaline is the choice for the target film in this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Age of Adaline.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize consisting of previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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April 1st, 2015
March ended on a good note and helped 2015 maintain its lead over 2014 thanks to a trio of $100 million movies: Cinderella, Insurgent, and Home. April isn't as strong as far as depth goes, as only Furious 7 is expected to come close to $100 million at the box office. On the positive side, it could earn $100 million during its opening weekend, becoming the fastest starting film of the year, so far. On the negative side, it is expected to earn more than double the rest of the films' combined box office totals. Even worse, last April, there were two $100 million hits, including Captain America: The Winter Soldier, as well as two others that came close. There's no way April 2015 is going to live up to April 2014. I just hope the collapse isn't so bad that 2015 loses its lead over 2014 completely.
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