January 13th, 2020
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The Oscar nominations were announced on Monday, and the results were... well, there were some puzzling results. Joker led the way with eleven nominations. ... A film with 69% positive reviews earned the most nominations. It’s not the worst-reviewed movie to earn a Best Picture Nomination—after all, Bohemian Rhapsody was nominated just last year. However, this film is arguably the worst-reviewed movie to ever earn the most nominations in a single year.
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December 18th, 2019
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There’s almost exactly a week till Christmas, which explains the slim number of new releases. That said, nearly every film on the main list is worth picking up with a few contenders for Pick of the Week. It was a close three-way race, but in the end, Abominable earned Pick of the Week.
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December 4th, 2019
Tuesday is the day after Cyber Monday, also know as, “One of the worst days of the year to release something on the home market.” There’s not a lot to talk about, while the biggest release of the week is also one of the biggest disappointments of the year, but the less said about that, the better. As for Pick of the Week contenders, we have Big Trouble in Little China: Collector’s Edition and that’s it. There are a few other releases that are close to that level, but none that reach it.
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November 27th, 2019
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It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This year, Thanksgiving is as late as it could have been, which means there’s no way to squeeze in four weeks of regular installments of the gift guide, as well as the December monthly preview, etc. So we are going to have a condensed list this year. That said, there weren’t a ton of first-run releases that would have made this list regardless.
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October 3rd, 2019
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Ad Astra spent a second weekend on top of the international box office earning $18.0 million in 50 markets for totals of $53.5 million internationally and $88.9 million worldwide. The film had an elite opening in Russia with $3.16 million on 1,337 screens, earning first place in the process. On the other hand, it failed to crack $1 million during its debuts in both Brazil ($900,000) and Italy ($898,000).
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October 1st, 2019
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Abominable led the way at the box office this weekend, but there wasn’t a lot to celebrate. That film merely did okay for this time of year, while there were no other new releases to boost the box office. This led to a 25% drop-off from last weekend, down to a mere $92 million. Worse still, this is 13% lower than the same weekend last year when Night School and Smallfoot were a strong one-two box office punch. We’ve had a couple of winning weeks in a row, so this loss doesn’t hurt 2019’s chances too much and the deficit is practically the same as it was last week at 5.6% or $490 million at $8.28 billion to $8.77 billion.
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September 29th, 2019
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It is a mixed bag at the box office this weekend. None of the films are bombing, there are also no wild success stories either. Abominable is leading the way with an estimated $20.85 million opening. This is a little below expectations, but still a fine opening for this time of year. Additionally, its prospects have improved over the weekend, so it is clear its reviews and its A rating from CinemaScore have helped its word-of-mouth and that should help its legs going forward. The film also earned an estimated $8.8 million internationally in 30 markets for an early international total of $10.2 million It is still too early to judge how the film will do overseas.
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September 28th, 2019
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Abominable bounced back a bit during Friday to earn $5.69 million. This is still behind Smallfoot’s opening Friday, but it is better than its previews. This is strong evidence that the film’s reviews and its A rating from CinemaScore is already having a positive effect. $20 million is now much more likely than it was yesterday at this time, while with a little luck, it will match our $22 million prediction.
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September 26th, 2019
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The last weekend of September has been a great week to release a second-tier animated film and there have been several $100 million hits released this week in the past. This year, Abominable is hoping to succeed in this role. It does have a lot going for it, including no competition, direct or otherwise, and reviews that are, while not spectacular, certainly a selling point. On the other hand, the buzz hasn’t grown the way it should. This weekend last year, Night School led the way with Smallfoot having a strong second place opening. Unfortunately, it looks like 2019’s small winning streak will come to an end, because it is unlikely Abominable will match last year’s number one film. It might not even match last year’s second place film.
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September 26th, 2019
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Last week, the international box office was dominated by international releases with six of the top seven films coming from overseas. This week, there is only four films that earned more than $10 million and only one of them wasn’t a Hollywood release. Ad Astra led the way earning $26 million in 44 markets during its first weekend of release. The film’s biggest market was the U.K., where it opened in second place with $2.83 million in 616 theaters. It did as well in South Korea with $2.32 million on 853 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $2.68 million. The film also cracked $2 million in France ($2.7 million) and Japan ($2.2 million). The film has yet to open in several major markets, so it is far from done. That said, it was an expensive movie to make and while it is doing better internationally, it isn’t doing well enough to break even any time soon.
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September 23rd, 2019
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It was a strong weekend with almost every film in the top five topping predictions. Downton Abbey dominated the chart with $31.03 million, breaking the record for an opening weekend by a Focus Features film in the process. Both Ad Astra and Rambo: Last Blood also beat expectations, albeit by much, much smaller margins. This helped the overall box office grow 12% from last weekend to $123 million. More importantly, this is 34% higher than the same weekend last year. I was expecting substantial growth, but not this much growth. Granted, 2019 is still behind 2018, but the lead has been cut to 5.5% or $470 million at $8.14 billion to $8.61 billion. Furthermore, if we have a few more good weeks, then optimism will actually return to the box office analysis.
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September 22nd, 2019
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Downton Abbey is not only going to earn first place on the weekend box office chart, but it is going to set the record for Focus Features with an opening weekend of $31.0 million. This is substantially more than predicted and substantially more than Focus Features’ previous best opening weekend of $22.69 million earned by Insidious Chapter 3. Additionally, thanks to its reviews, its A-rating from CinemaScore, and its more mature target demographic, it has a real chance at $100 million domestically. Or it could have a serious Fanboy Effect, because it is a TV adaptation. We will know more next weekend.
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September 21st, 2019
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Downton Abbey stunned analysts with an opening day of $13.38 million on Friday. However, this does include two days of previews, so keep that in mind going forward. The film’s reviews are in the 80% range, while it managed an A from CinemaScore. Both of these results suggest longer than average legs, but not enough to deal with the two days of previews. It should open with more than $30 million, which is not only much better than anticipated, it will be the best opening weekend for Focus Features.
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September 20th, 2019
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Downton Abbey is going to top expectations this weekend, unless something really strange happens. The film earned $2.1 million during last night’s previews, making it easily the best of this weekend’s crop. (It also made $2.2 million in previous paid previews, so it is off to a $4.3 million start.) Additionally, its reviews are solid, even if its average score is below 7 out of 10. Finally, its target audience isn’t the type to rush out to see a movie opening night, so this start is even more impressive. I am a little concerned that the Fanboy Effect is in play here, despite the target audience, so keep that in mind.
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September 20th, 2019
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A better than expected opening by Hustlers and a stronger than expected hold by It: Chapter Two helped 2019 earn its second win in the year-over-year comparison last weekend. Meanwhile, we have three new releases hoping to extend the winning streak this weekend. Unfortanately, all three films have something holding them back. For example, Ad Astra was made by Fox before the merger with Disney and I’m not sure Disney is 100% behind this movie. Downton Abbey is based on a recent TV show and people are not always willing to go to the theater and spend money on something they could recently watch on TV for free. Finally, Rambo: Last Blood is earning weak reviews and that could hurt its box office chances. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, The House with a Clock in its Walls opened with $26.61 million, while A Simple Favor was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. This weekend, we could have no movie earn more than $20 million, but there are five films that should have no trouble getting to $10 million. This depth could help extend 2019’s winning streak to three weeks.
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September 1st, 2019
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Summer ended on a thoroughly mediocre note, with more August releases missing expectations than topping them. That said, it wasn’t a complete mess, with Hobbs and Shaw doing extremely well internationally, and some others heading towards profitability, if not becoming spectacular hits. September, on the other hand, should be one of the best months in the year, at least on the year-over-year competition. The month starts with It: Chapter Two, which could open with more than $100 million. By comparison, last September, only one film, The Nun, earned more than $100 million in total. Additionally, Abominable has a slim but realistic chance at reaching the $100 million milestone, so it should be a great month on the year-over-year comparison. 2019 isn’t going to catch up to 2018, but it should narrow the gap considerably.
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July 18th, 2019
Sci-fi thriller starring Brad Pitt opens September 20 ... Full Movie Details.
Astronaut Roy McBride travels to the outer edges of the solar system to find his missing father and unravel a mystery that threatens the survival of our planet. His journey will uncover secrets that challenge the nature of human existence and our place in the cosmos.
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June 5th, 2019
Sci-fi thriller starring Brad Pitt and Tommy Lee Jones opens September 20 ... Full Movie Details.
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May 1st, 2019
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April got off to a fast start with Shazam! opening the first weekend of the month. Meanwhile, Avengers: Endgame ended the month with a record-breaking debut. Unfortunately for 2019, last April had a very similar result leaving 2019 behind 2018’s pace by over $400 million. Will May be able to turn things around? Last May, there were only two films that reached $200 million, Deadpool 2 and Solo: A Star Wars Story. Meanwhile, this May there are three such films, Detective Pikachu, Aladdin, and Godzilla: King of the Monsters. There are two points we need to make. Firstly, the only reason there are more potential $200 million hits this year is because May has five Fridays this year. Secondly, this May also has a lot better depth with films like John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum and Rocketman being potential $100 million hits. Even if we ignore the final weekend, May should do well enough to cut into 2018’s lead over 2019. It’s not going to be able to cut it in half, but it could do well enough to make box office analysts a little more positive about the year’s chances overall.
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