This graph shows Brie Larson’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
Carol Danvers, aka Captain Marvel, has reclaimed her identity from the tyrannical Kree and taken revenge on the Supreme Intelligence. However, unintended consequences see her shouldering the burden of a destabilized universe. When her duties send her to an anomalous wormhole linked to a Kree revolutionary, her powers become entangled with two other superheroes to form the Marvels.
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Captain Marvel started with two strikes against it, because it’s an origin story and a prequel. There have been so many origin stories for super heroes released over the past decade plus that audiences have grown tired of them. Furthermore, prequels are difficult to do right, because it’s much harder to surprise audiences. Can this film overcome these obstacles? Or should fans of the M.C.U. just wait till the sequel comes out when this character can really shine?
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If I were to use just one phrase to describe this week’s list, it would be “Good, but not great.” More than half of the films on this week’s list have reviews that are exactly that, merely good, but not good enough for limited release. Of the exceptions, Amazing Grace is the one I want to see the most.
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It is not a particularly strong week on the home market. Cars 3 is the biggest new release, but it is far from the best. There were not a lot of contenders for Pick of the Week. The Philadelphia Story and Your Name were the two best with the latter coming out on top and its Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week.
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Last week, The Fate of the Furious scared away all of the competition. This week, the competition is still scared, as there’s very little in the way of top notch releases. Kong: Skull Island is by far the biggest new release of the week, while the next two biggest are The Promise and Free Fire. As for the best releases of the week, The Expanse: Season Two is a contender, but ultimately the Pick of the Week goes to the StalkerCriterion Collection Blu-ray.
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Free Fire opened in theaters in April. It wasn’t expected to be a major hit, or even a midlevel hit, but almost no one expected it to bomb as badly as it did. It didn’t just open below the Mendoza Line, had it opened with as much as it made in total, it still would have been below the Mendoza Line. Is it really as bad as its box office numbers would indicate? Or is it a hidden gem?
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March was a month of extremes, led by two strong performances: Beauty and the Beast breaking records and Logan cracking $200 million with ease. There were also two other $100 million hits and another potential $100 million hit that we don’t have significant box office numbers for yet. This is fantastic. On the opposite end, there were three films on last month’s list that didn’t even open truly wide. This month won’t be as lucrative at the top, as The Fate of the Furious is the only film expected to top $100 million. Fortunately, it is expected to open with over $100 million. On the other extreme, there are many, many films on this list that I’m not sure will open wide. Fortunately, last April wasn’t any better. The Jungle Book made nearly $1 billion worldwide, but the other nine films combined made less than half of that. To emphasize: the other nine films that opened last April averaged less than $50 million worldwide each. If The Fate of the Furious can just come close to the previous installment of the franchise, then 2017 has a solid shot at topping 2016.
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February was an okay month. The films that missed expectations were mostly balanced by the films that were pleasant surprises. Unfortunately, last February was amazing as Deadpool dominated the chart, so 2017 has fallen further behind 2016 and 2016’s lead is now about $100 million. It is not so bad that a good March won’t help 2017 back into the lead. Will that happen? We have some good news and some bad news. Good news: Every week there is one movie that has at least a shot at $100 million. Two of them, Logan and Beauty and the Beast, could reach $200 million or a lot more. Bad News: last March, both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned more than $300 million. That’s a really powerful one-two punch and I don’t think we can replicate that this time around. On the other hand, last March, the third best film of the month was 10 Cloverfield Lane, while there were four films that were expected to open wide that earned less than $10 million at the box office. 2017 likely won’t be as good at the top, but I also don’t think it will have as many bombs either. If Beauty and the Beast reaches the very high end of expectations, then 2017 could even close the gap with 2016 entirely. I’ll be happy getting halfway there.
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There are some really good releases on this week's Home Market Release Report, including many that either won or were competing for Oscars, like Creed, Room, etc. However, once you get past the cream of the crop, there isn't much in the way of depth. Most of the Oscar contenders are Pick of the Week Contenders, but the best release by far is The Adventures of Bob & Doug McKenzie: Strange Brew on Blu-ray. This is the greatest movie ever made.
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It’s Oscar day and, if all goes to plan, I will be live-blogging the ceremony tonight. Here is the list of nominees marked according to predictions from our readers, and my personal wishes. Nominees in Bold are the ones predicted to win by our readers (we’ll have a full rundown of the predictions at noon, after the contest ends). If I am predicting a different film, those are in Italics. Meanwhile, the nominees I want to win, but don’t think will win, are Underlined. There are a few categories where the film I really think deserves the award was not even nominated, plus a few I don’t have a real opinion on.
Voting in our annual Predict the Academy Awards contest is now closed, and we can reveal the final vote totals in each category, along with the rough probability for which film will win each award. This is a year where readers are very confident about the outcomes in many of the categories. In fact, there isn’t a single major category where less than 50% of readers picked the same winner, and there are five Oscars where 90% or more of readers agreed on the outcome, including a massive 97% of the vote for Inside Out for Best Animated Feature. That makes The Revenant a rather more uncertain bet, with 70% of readers favoring it for Best Picture. That’s actually theoretically the closest call among all the major prizes…
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It’s Oscar day and, if all goes to plan, I will be live-blogging the ceremony tonight. Here is the list of nominees marked according to predictions from our readers, and my personal wishes. Nominees in Bold are the ones predicted to win by our readers (we’ll have a full rundown of the predictions at noon, after the contest ends). If I am predicting a different film, those are in Italics. Meanwhile, the nominees I want to win, but don’t think will win, are Underlined. There are a few categories where the film I really think deserves the award was not even nominated, plus a few I don’t have a real opinion on.
Awards Season begins with the Independent Spirit Awardsnominations, but they don't hand the awards out until the day before the Oscars. Spotlight was the big winner tonight, but it wasn’t the only one.
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. The Best Lead Actress is not generating a lot of buzz, but one actress has been constantly winning and is the overwhelming favorite.
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The BAFTA awards were handed out over the weekend. There were two main winners, The Revenant, which won most of its five awards in the high-prestige categories, and Mad Max: Fury Road, which earn all four of its awards in technical categories. It appears the Oscars will be very similar in that breakdown.
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The Screen Actors Guild winners were handed out last night and for the most part the winners here will likely walk away with an Oscar. There is one major exception.
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The Oscar nominations were announced at 5:30 am Pacific time. Nothing is good that early in the morning. Worse still, this was a terrible year for snubs, especially when it comes to diversity of the nominees. The voters for the Oscars are 94% white and 77% male... but that's still more diverse than the list of nominees. The Revenant led the way with 12 nominations and it is expected to win a few of those, while it is a serious contender in most of the categories it was nominated in.
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The Golden Globes were handed out on Sunday evening. There were a few minor surprises and some infuriating results. On the other hand, no one film truly dominated, with The Revenant leading the way with just three wins. Only two other movies earned more than one win, The Martian and Steve Jobs.
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The BAFTA nominations were announced and you can read them on their site... in alphabetical order. Alphabetical order is very useful in most circumstances, but not here. On the other hand, the nominees within each category are not presented in alphabetical order. ... Are the BAFTAs trolling us? As for the actual nominees, the big winners here are Bridge of Spies and Carol, both of which earned nine nominations. For Carol, this is just another impressive score, but this was a pleasant surprise for Bridge of Spies.
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The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning and we are already beginning to see a trend for this year's Awards Season. For the most part, the same films are coming up over and over again. Carol led the way with five awards, while there was a three-way tie for second place with The Big Short, The Revenant and Steve Jobs each picking up four.
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The Screen Actors Guild nominations were announced today and there are at least a few surprises to talk about. Trumbo led the way with three nominations, but there were six films with two nods apiece. Six!
Awards Season begins with the Independent Spirit Awards nominations. There were definitely some surprise nominees this year, but that also meant there were some unfortunate snubs as well. The overall leader was Carol, which just opened this past weekend. This is great timing and should help its box office numbers, as well as its chances throughout Awards Season. Its six nominations were one ahead of Beasts of No Nation and Spotlight. (One of Spotlight's was the Robert Altman Award, which has no nominations, just one winner.)
Suffragette started its potential Oscar-run earning first place on the per theater chart with an average of $19,056 in four theaters. That suggests room to grow, but perhaps not enough to expand truly wide. It will need to last in theaters long enough for Awards Season nominations to be announced and if it can do well then, it will boost its box office chances. Heart of a Dog was next with an opening of $13,893 in one theater. Room was the only holdover in the $10,000 club earning an average of $10,856 in 23 theaters. It will earn some measure of mainstream success, but unless Brie Larson earns some major Awards Season nominations, it won't expand truly wide.
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There are a few first-run releases on this week's list of new DVD and Blu-ray releases. Riddick is the biggest, while You're Next is the best in terms of reviews. However, neither is truly Pick of the Week material. There are some contenders there, and in a strange coincidence, the two best feature Brie Larson: Short Term 12 on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack and The Spectacular Now on DVD or Blu-ray. It literally came down to a coin toss, but The Spectacular Now won.
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Independent Spirit Award started the Awards Season this week, handing out its nominations. 12 Years a Slave led the way with seven nominations, but it wasn't the only film to pick up multiple nominations.
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There are not a lot of limited releases on this week's list, but a few of them have good reviews and / or big name casts. Drinking Buddies is one such film, but I think Short Term 12 will come out on top of the Per Theater Chart thanks in part to its reviews.
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