Weekend predictions: Kung Fu Panda and Dune go head-to-head for weekend honors

March 8, 2024

Kung Fu Panda 4

It’s looking like a tight race for box office glory this weekend with Kung Fu Panda 4 looking to unseat Dune: Part Two from the top of the chart. The race for third place is close too as this weekend’s other two new wide releases, Cabrini and Imaginary hope to bring in their own niche audiences.

The Kung Fu Panda franchise has been a very consistent performer at the box office over its 16-year history. The previous three theatrical releases have all topped $500 million worldwide, and made at least $140 million domestically, although the performance of the series has steadily declined since 2008’s Kung Fu Panda.

The main issue with the prediction going into the weekend is that our model thinks the market is exceptionally weak right now, with Dune: Part Two’s excellent performance not enough to reverse the trend yet. That pulls the model’s prediction down sharply, although our audience tracking pushed the model’s expectation slightly over $30 million for the weekend.

The preview number, while not especially high, points to a slightly healthier opening than that:

The big issue with animated films like this is that they don’t generally bring in a big audience for the previews. Thursday night is, after all, school night for its core demographic. That makes it hard to say what $3.8 million in previews means for the weekend as a whole. Something over $40 million seems like a decent bet, which would make this installment’s debut right in line with the previous two outings for Po and friends.

Next up is up the latest from what I think we can safely call a faith-based “powerhouse,” Angel Studios.

If Cabrini does as well as Angel’s previous releases, it should hit around $7.5 million this weekend. The preview numbers reinforce that view.

As with Kung Fu Panda 4 we’re looking at a fairly low raw figure from previews and a relatively high multiplier. That means $7.5 million is far from a lock this weekend for Cabrini, but it hasn’t paid to bet against Angel Studios yet.

Finally, PG-13-rated horror movie Imaginary hits theaters this weekend:

The model’s $8.4-million baseline prediction is in line with the preview results:

This is a case of the model being unimpressed enough with the previews to pull down its prediction a little. That means Imaginary is favorite for fourth place this weekend, but it’s well within striking distance of Cabrini if that film falters.

Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.

A slight underperformance from Kung Fu Panda 4 or overperformance from Dune 2 would swap the two films at the top of the chart. The model is already expecting a relatively strong hold for Dune 2 based on its run so far. As of today, by the way, the predicted final box office for Dune: Part Two is $219 million—just a shade higher than expected at the end of last weekend.

Overall, it looks as though we’ll hit $100 million in total spending this weekend again, which is an important milestone given how weak things have looked so far this year.

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Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Dune: Part Two, Cabrini, Kung Fu Panda 4, Imaginary, Kung Fu Panda