Weekend predictions: Beyoncé starting out strong
December 1, 2023
With four new wide releases and several films having their first “normal” weekend after opening over Thanksgiving, this is a devilishly difficult weekend to predict at the box office. Hardest of them all is RENAISSANCE: A FILM BY BEYONCÉ, which follows in the footsteps of another all-caps concert movie, TAYLOR SWIFT | THE ERAS TOUR. Beyoncé’s film posted excellent preview numbers last night, with $5.06 million. That’s quite a bit more than Taylor Swift’s $2.8 million in previews, but that’s not really an apples to apples comparison, as the Swift previews were added to the schedule long after her most enthusiastic fans had bought tickets for later in the weekend. With so few other comparable films, our model is struggling to pin down a number for RENAISSANCE this weekend.
Here’s the model’s baseline prediction for Renaissance:
There aren’t many comparable films to build a prediction on, so the model’s $24.7-million prediction is tentative at best. The preview numbers are even harder to gauge.
The model settled on a previews-to-weekend multiplier of about 10, and a $50-million debut. That would be a great result, and well ahead of expectations. But we’ll have to see how this movie holds up over the weekend.
The big question here is whether Godzilla will play like a typical action film. Foreign films like this (particularly anime films) often earn an outsized proportion of their opening weekend from previews. My hunch is that Godzilla Minus One will fall into that category at least to an extent, but it’s already doing well enough to suggest it has some crossover appeal with mainstream audiences. I’ll be surprised if it tops $20 million this weekend, but not shocked.
No preview numbers were published for The Shift, which is typical for an Angel Studios release.
It had disappointing preview numbers last night, which brings down our prediction quite a bit:
Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.
With so many unusual new releases, there’s a vast array of possible outcomes this weekend (Songbirds & Snakes could even end up winning the weekend with a strong hold and weak legs for Renaissance). Join us tomorrow morning to see how Friday turns out, and don’t forget that we’ll be the first to publish the official studio projections on Sunday morning.
Also, I’d like to take a moment to plug The Numbers Business Report, which has box office predictions for all films being released between now and the end of 2024, including a prediction for the domestic box office market next year. Subscriptions (including an attractive print edition) are available only here on the site—and make a great Christmas present for the movie fanatic in your life!
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Godzilla Minus One also had great preview numbers last night. It’s such an unusual release that our model couldn’t come up with a baseline prediction. Instead, we’ll have to go off of those previews.
We have analysis for two more films today. First, The Shift from Angel Studios.
Finally, Lionsgate has John Woo’s action thriller Silent Night.
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Godzilla Minus One (ゴジラ最新作), Silent Night, The Shift, TAYLOR SWIFT | THE ERAS TOUR, RENAISSANCE: A FILM BY BEYONCÉ, John Woo