Weekend projections: Dial of Destiny first with a disappointing $60 million

July 2, 2023

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny will easily take top honors at the box office this weekend, but its $60-million debut is a disappointing start considering that Kingdom of the Crystal Skull debuted with over $100 million way back in 2008. Its $70 million internationally isn’t much better considering that the franchise has traditionally done well around the world. The film is also performing weakly compared to its Thursday preview numbers, a clue that it isn’t getting great word of mouth. On the other hand, every film in the top 10 is coming in behind our Friday-morning predictions, which suggests a slow weekend generally, possibly influenced by the upcoming July 4 holiday.

Here’s how the domestic numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…

The overall box office for the weekend will be up just 11% from last weekend, in spite of the new tentpole release. However, a lot of people are treating this as a five-day holiday, with July 4 falling on Tuesday, so we should see elevated earnings on Monday and Tuesday. It seems unlikely that will do much to help Indiana Jones, and Ruby Gillman looks in even more trouble, with just $5.2 million from its first three days. Universal pointed to its A- CinemaScore and 84% Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes this morning, hoping to build an argument that it will have a good run at the box office. Its theater average, at $1,529, will be the lowest for any film in the top 10 this weekend. That unfortunately points to a short stay in theaters, although perhaps it will salvage something from the home market.

As I mentioned earlier, every film in the top 10 fell short of our prediction this weekend, albeit by narrow margins in a few cases. That suggests that seasonal factors are at play (the model doesn’t account for July 4 coming in two days time, for example), but it’s also possible that audiences are a little tapped out right now, with five big-budget tentpoles having arrived in theaters during June. Given the overall box office this weekend, I’m inclined to believe it’s a little of both.

The good news for the films now playing in theaters is that we have a holiday coming up, and only a couple of more targeted wide releases (Insidious: The Red Door and Joy Ride) to come between now and the arrival of Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part One on July 12. That will give them some breathing space, and it looks as though they could use it.

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com

Filed under: Wes Anderson