Weekend predictions: $150-million opening on the cards for The Batman

March 4, 2022

The Batman

The Batman posted an impressive $21.6 million from preview screenings, according to Warner Bros.’ Friday-morning analysis, putting it on track for well over $100 million this weekend and easily the biggest opening since Spider-Man: No Way Home. Based purely on the preview numbers, our model thinks it could top $150 million this weekend, although that forecast needs to be tempered a bit because of the early screenings on Tuesday and Wednesday that are included in that “Thursday previews” number.

Here’s what our model thinks of The Batman’s performance for the weekend, first based on what we call its “fundamentals,” and second on its preview numbers…







The “fundamentals” prediction is highly dependent on what one thinks of the underlying strength of the theatrical market. Our model’s number right now is 66%—i.e., two-thirds of the regular audience is currently going to movie theaters. That turns what the model thinks would have been a $123-million opening pre-pandemic into an $81.3-million opening now.

Based on what we’re seeing from the previews, The Batman is actually performing almost as if the pandemic never happened. It’s actually handily exceeding the turnout of pre-pandemic DC movies like Joker and Justice League so far. The best benchmark comparison might be 2016’s Suicide Squad, which posted $20.5 million in previews on its way to a $133.7-million opening weekend. The model thinks that $21.6 million in previews could translate into a $156-million debut for The Batman, although I should note that the model doesn’t distinguish between Thursday-only previews and the previews-spread-over-several-days approach that Warner Bros. have taken this time. The main factor that might be inflating the number so far is the premium ticket prices paid for IMAX screenings on Tuesday.

Our final prediction is based on a weighted average of the fundamentals prediction and the previews prediction, and comes in at $137 million. That feels a little on the conservative side to me, but would still be a fantastic result for the industry, and ahead of what the model thinks would be a par score in the best of times. Coupled with the performance of Spider-Man: No Way Home and Uncharted, the market is looking very promising for action/adventure movies.





The spectacular opening for The Batman will make this easily the best weekend of the year so far overall. In fact, it’ll be the first weekend to top $100 million for all films combined in 2022. As long as The Batman can top $120 million, this will be the second-best weekend for the market since the pandemic started behind only the weekend of December 17, 2021, which was dominated, of course, by No Way Home. This weekend’s big super hero release isn’t reaching those levels, but Batman’s certainly doing his bit to save old-school Hollywood.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Batman, Uncharted, Spider-Man: No Way Home