Weekend predictions: Raya headed for weekend win as more theaters reopen

March 19, 2021

Raya and the Last Dragon should post another win at the box office this weekend as new theater reopenings and strong word of mouth are set to boost its performance. Our model predicts it will decline just 28% in its third weekend to $4.09 million while Tom and Jerry is likely to be down around 24% to $3.08 million. Although it isn’t likely to challenge the current top two, new release The Courier should land in the top four and keep the overall market from declining too sharply this weekend.

The Courier is another in what is becoming a long line of thrillers released during the pandemic. Our model doesn’t think that thrillers have done any better than other genres of film during these unusual times, but it is a genre that does quite well on the home market, so it makes some sense to keep releasing them even when the market is slow.

With a cast led by Benedict Cumberbatch and Rachel Brosnahan, this is a film that would most likely have performed solidly under normal circumstances. Our model is pegging its opening around $1.4 million, and anything over that would be an encouraging sign that the market is improving.

Even with a slight lift from The Courier, the overall market is likely to decline this weekend, although hopefully by less than 20%. Once more, The Croods: A New Age will be a good barometer of overall market strength. If it manages to earn more this weekend than last weekend, that’s a good sign that the market is improving. Our overall pandemic adjustment is sitting at 26% right now—meaning that the model thinks 26% of moviegoers are currently willing to go to theaters—but one would expect that to increase as more people get vaccinated. So far, we haven’t seen a clear sign of that in recent box office results.

Bruce Nash

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Ironbark, Raya and the Last Dragon, Tom and Jerry, Benedict Cumberbatch, Rachel Brosnahan