Weekend Estimates: Skywalker Slips on Saturday, Still Scores First Place
January 5, 2020
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker isn’t going to live up to projections based on Friday estimates, but it is still expected to land a little north of weekend predictions with an estimated weekend haul of $33.74 million for a three-week total of $450.80 million. A 53% decline at this time of year isn’t a great result and it is clear the film’s reviews and its mere B plus from CinemaScore are not doing it any favors. That said, it is still one of the biggest hits released in 2019, both domestically and worldwide. Internationally, the film is pulling in $50.5 million in 53 markets for totals of $468.0 million internationally and $918.8 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this weekend, but it debuts in South Korea and the Philippines this coming weekend and that should help it hit $1 billion worldwide.
Jumanji: The Next Level is performing very well with an estimated weekend box office $26.5 million, which would push its running tally to $236.2 million after four weeks of release. I was burned by too many films in 2019, so maybe I was a little too pessimistic here. Furthermore, the film is thriving internationally with $42.4 million on 14,200 screens in 64 markets for total of $374 million internationally and $610 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but it has yet to open in Brazil, so it is not done just yet.
Little Women grew a little more as the weekend continued and it is now estimated to earn $13.58 million for a running tally of $60.02 million. The film will hit $100 million domestically, assuming it continues to have significant Awards Season success. The film has yet to really expand internationally, but early signs are very positive with a weekend box office of $9.5 million on 1,900 screens in 6 markets for an early total of $20.4 million. This includes a stunning $3.4 million debut on Australia.
The Grudge could grab fourth place over the weekend. It is earning the spot according to estimates, but it is very close at $11.3 million. Given its reviews and its bottom of the chart F-rating CinemaScore, I suspect it will finish in fifth place when the final numbers are in. That said, the movie only cost $10 million to make, so topping its production budget during its opening weekend is a great sign. The film is struggling internationally with a debut of just $5.8 million on 3,100 in 29 markets. Its most impressive market was Indonesia, where it is earning first place with $1.0 million. Granted, the film has yet to open in basically every major market, so things can turn around. Furthermore, given its budget, it doesn’t need to crack $100 million worldwide to be profitable, even if the movie likely cost nearly double its production budget to market and distribute, so there’s no reason to panic after this start.
Frozen II became the highest grossing animated movie of all time, surpassing both Incredibles 2 and the original Frozen over the weekend. Domestically, the film is adding $11.29 million over the weekend, which would lift its total to $449.88 million, if estimates hold. Internationally, the film is earning an estimated $42.4 million in 55 markets for totals of $875.3 million internationally and $1.325 billion worldwide. The film finally finished its international run with debuts in Brazil ($10.3 million); Argentina ($1.9 million); and Bolivia ($0.6 million). The film broke the record for fasted opening movie for Disney Animation in all three markets.
There were no new limited releases to talk about, but that we still need to talk about 1917. This film is estimated to earn $590,000 in 11 theater over the weekend, which is 2% higher than last weekend. Granted, it was a Wednesday debut last week and that does have some effect. Even so, this bodes well for its box office chances when it expands wide this coming weekend. On the other hand, Just Mercy is falling 30% to $76,000 over the weekend in four theaters. Its theater average is still strong, but I am a little worried about its chances to expand truly wide.
- Friday Estimates
- All-time Highest Grossing Animated Movie Worldwide
- Weekend Box Office Chart
-3-News.jpg)
- Thursday Previews
- Weekend Predictions
- Theater Counts
- Fastest to $500 million
- Fastest to $400 million
- 2019 Domestic Box Office
- 2019 Worldwide Box Office
- Friday Box Office Chart
- New Year’s Day Box Office Chart
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Frozen II, Just Mercy, The Grudge, Jumanji: The Next Level, 1917, Little Women