Weekend Estimates: Spider-Man Leads the Way, But Lion King Roars

July 14, 2019

Stuber

As expected, Spider-Man: Far From Home is going to remain in first place at the box office this weekend. Fortunately for the box office as a whole, it is beating expectations in terms of dollars with an estimated haul of $45.3 million, which would give is a two-week total of $274.5 million. Internationally, the film is earning $100 million in 67 markets for totals of $573 million internationally and $847 million worldwide. It opened in first place in Italy over the weekend with $6.1 million. This is the film’s final market, but even coasting on holdovers won’t stop it from reaching $1 billion worldwide.

Toy Story 4 is matching expectations nearly perfectly with $20.67 million over the weekend for a four-week total of $346.37 million. It is doing even better internationally with $48.1 million in 45 markets for totals of $424.7 million internationally and $771.1 million worldwide. The film is setting records in both Japan and Hong Kong thanks to fantastic debuts. It earned $15.3 million in Japan making it the fastest-debuting Disney animated film there, while in Hong Kong it’s $4.6 million was the biggest opening for an animated film for any studio.

If estimates hold, then Crawl will match the high end of predictions with a third place, $12 million debut. This is a good start for a film that cost $17 million to make. Additionally, its reviews and its B from CinemaScore suggest the film will have longer than average legs for a horror film. If it can find an audience internationally, then it will break even early in the film’s home market run.

On the other hand, Stuber is struggling with just $8 million domestically and $3 million internationally. Its reviews are not an asset as a lot of critics complained the extreme violence doesn’t mesh with the comedy elements. It seems audiences agree, because not only did few of them show up to see the movie, those that did gave it a B with CinemaScore.

Yesterday is having another solid weekend with an estimated haul of $6.75 million for a three-week total of $48.32 million. Universal’s share of this film could already be more than the $26 million it cost to make, meaning if it can find a receptive audience internationally, it could break even before it reaches the home market. Unfortunately, it has been struggling internationally. This weekend, it is estimated to earn $7.8 million for a total of $32.2 million so far. This includes a third place, $1.53 million debut in Germany.

The Lion King started its international run a week ahead of its domestic debut with a first place, $54.7 million opening in China. This is a fantastic start for an animated film in that market. It is still rare for animated films to earn $100 million in total there, so this could be a great omen for things to come.

As for limited releases, The Farewell is set to break the 2019 record with a theater average of $87,833 in four theaters, knocking Avengers: Endgame into second place. The Art of Self Defense is planning to expand wide and it made a bit of a case for itself this weekend, as it is opening with an estimated $121,000 in seven theaters for an average of $17,297. The only other limited release currently in the $10,000 club is Sword of Trust, with an average of $11,256 in two theaters.

According to estimates, Avengers: Endgame overtook Avatar for first place on the all-time worldwide chart. This record comes with an asterisk, however. Based on our analysis of the reported box office for Avatar, the total for the film from all reporting territories is $1,973,390,361. That's actually quite a bit lower than our official total of $2,015,837,654, which was based on Fox's reporting back in 2010.

Note that sites that are reporting different numbers, if they have broken down the figures, have several duplicated territories (e.g., the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Czechoslovakia). We also know that Fox used to double count revenue from Puerto Rico in both their domestic and international totals for films.

Although we asked Fox repeatedly for updated and accurate numbers, they declined to provide them to us. We suspect that Avatar made close to, or possibly slightly over $2 billion internationally, but can't verify that with certainty. Given the lack of data from the studio and the double-counting we have seen, we are sticking with the number we reported in 2010 for now. We will be checking with Disney to see if they can confirm a higher figure for Avatar, now that they own Fox.

Endgame is estimated to make less than $3 million worldwide this weekend. This means that, according to our current figures, there are three films on top of the all-time charts, as Avatar is still number one internationally and The Force Awakens is in first place domestically.

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Avengers: Endgame, Toy Story 4, Spider-Man: Far From Home, The Lion King, Stuber, Yesterday, Crawl, The Art of Self-Defense, The Farewell, Sword of Trust