Weekend Wrap-Up: Toy Story Latest Film to Miss Expectations
June 25, 2019
I think 2019 is done. The year isn’t quite halfway done, but I think I’m ready to call the box office race with 2018 over. Toy Story 4 was the latest potential monster hit to miss expectations by a huge margin. Granted, it still opened in first place with $120.10 million and it will make a substantial profit, but this is still about 25% lower than a lot of people expected and the overall weekend is still a massive disappointment. It did rise 50% from last weekend hitting $204 million, but this was 25% lower than the same weekend last year and that’s a much more important figure. Year-to-date, 2019 is now behind 2018 by 8.9% or $510 million at $5.26 billion to $5.77 billion. If you want to stretch for some good news, then this isn’t the worst deficit we’ve seen this year.
Toy Story 4 opened with $120.10 million, which is the fastest start in the franchise, but still disappointing given the high expectations surrounding the film. It should still have good legs. It is a family film with 98% positive reviews and an A from CinemaScore, so getting to $300 million is practically guaranteed, as is earning a very healthy profit. However, it is just the latest sign that there’s something wrong at the box office and that we need to cut box office predictions going forward.
Child’s Play opened in a distant second place with $14.09 million over the weekend, which is also the biggest opening in the franchise. In fact, it’s not that far behind Child’s Play 3’s domestic total. Its reviews and its C plus from CinemaScore suggest solid legs, for a horror film, while its rumored $10 million production budget is low enough that it will break even relatively soon.
Aladdin remains the biggest bright spot in the top five with $13.24 million over the weekend for a total of $288.55 million after a month of release. It will very likely remain in the top five next weekend and hit $300 million domestically in the process.
Men in Black: International fell 64% to $10.70 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $52.64 million. This isn’t the worst sophomore stint collapse we’ve seen so far this summer, but it is far from something to celebrate.
The Secret Life of Pets 2 rounded out the top five with $10.27 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $117.56 million. This is more than it cost to make and it is doing better internationally, so it will break even early on the home market.
Anna missed the Mendoza Line with just $3.60 million during its opening weekend. Its reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore are immaterial frankly, as theater owners will be looking to drop the film as soon as they are contractually able to, so its legs won’t matter.
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Filed under: Weekend Wrap-up, Toy Story 4, The Secret Life of Pets 2, Aladdin, Men in Black: International, Anna, Child’s Play, Toy Story, Child's Play