Weekend Estimates: Black Skies for MiB
June 16, 2019
According to weekend estimates, Men in Black: International is topping projections based on Friday estimates, but is still weaker than predicted with $28.5 million. This is a pleasant surprise, as the film’s reviews are terrible and its B from CinemaScore strongly suggested weaker legs. Maybe it will continue to surprise going forward. The film is doing much better internationally with $73.7 million on 41,400 screens in 56 markets. This includes $26.3 million in China, $5.1 million in Russia, $4.9 million in South Korea, and $3.9 million in Mexico. On the downside, the film has opened in most major markets, so it will be mostly coasting on holdovers at this point. It should still earn enough to cover its production budget worldwide, but that’s not enough to break even in any timely fashion.
The Secret Life of Pets 2 is falling faster than expected down 49% to $23.8 million. This would still give it a running tally of $92.0 million, which is more than it cost to make. The film is not doing as well internationally with a weekend haul of $8.5 million in 36 markets for a running tally of $62.5 million. It had no major market debuts this weekend, but it is estimated to earn $1.7 million in both Russia and the U.K. lifting its running tallies past $20 million in both markets. The film still has plenty of major markets left to open in, so it could turn things around.
It seems every time we get numbers for Aladdin, they are a pleasant surprise. The film is topping projections with an estimated weekend haul of $16.71 million for a four-week total of $263.45 million. At this point, $300 million domestically seems very likely, unless Toy Story 4 just demolishes the film next weekend. I suspect it will suffer its steepest decline, but will remain potent nonetheless. Internationally, the film is earning $47.5 million in 55 markets for totals of $461.4 million internationally and $724.8 million worldwide. At this point, $800 million worldwide is practically guaranteed, while if it can share theaters with Toy Story 4, then $900 million is within reach.
Dark Phoenix is earning $9.01 million according to estimates, which is better than we thought it would do yesterday, but still represents a 73% sophomore stint collapse leaving it with just $51.77 million domestically. Internationally, the film is earning $24.2 million in 55 markets, including a $3.5 million first place debut in Indonesia. Additionally, with an international running tally of $152.5 million and $204.3 million worldwide. The film has matched its $200 million production budget worldwide, which is enough to save face, but not enough to break even.
Rocketman is Paramount’s biggest release of 2019 earning $66.14 million, including an estimated $8.8 million over the weekend.
Shaft missed expectations earning an estimated $8.32 million during its opening weekend. The film did have the best CinemaScore of the three new releases this weekend earning a solid A, so it could do well on the home market. However, its theater average is low enough that it won’t stick around in theaters long enough for word-of-mouth to help its legs.
Late Night bounced back on Saturday earning an estimated $5.14 million over the weekend for a total of $5.45 million, including its week in limited release. It did avoid the Mendoza Line, but it won’t expand beyond this point and will likely see its theater count collapse before the end of the month. This is a real shame, as its reviews suggest it deserved more. However, going from a wide release to a limited release / wide expansion at the last moment likely did too much damage to the film’s box office chances.
The Dead Never Die will miss the top ten with $2.35 million in 613 theaters. It did match expectations, which is better than the rest of the new releases, but that’s damning it with faint praise.
It was also a slow week for limited releases with Being Frank doing the best according to early estimates. That film is earning an average of $5,136 in three theaters.
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Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Toy Story 4, Shaft, The Secret Life of Pets 2, Dark Phoenix, Being Frank, Aladdin, Men in Black: International, Late Night, Rocketman, The Dead Don’t Die