Weekend Predictions: Can Men in Black Open in the Black?
June 13, 2019
It’s a busy weekend at the box office with the potential for four new entries in the top ten. Unfortunately, only one of those films, Late Night, is earning good reviews. The other films’ reviews range from mediocre reviews to depressing reviews. Likewise, the four film’s box office chances range from mediocre, with Men in Black: International expected to open south of $30 million, to depressing, with some suggesting Late Night and / or The Dead Never Die missing the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Incredibles 2 opened with $182.69 million. That’s more than the entire box office will make this weekend. 2019 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison.
Men in Black: International is the latest installment in the franchise, a franchise that has been around for just over 20 years. The first film was one of the biggest hits of 1997 and is still widely considered a classic. However, the franchise never really came close to matching that quality level and sadly, this installment is right at the bottom with a 27% positive Tomatometer Score. Furthermore, it is widely expected to be the weakest film at the box office as well, and that’s before taking inflation into account. On the low end, the film could barely top $25 million over the weekend. Even the high end expectations have slipped to the mid $30 million range. I think it will make it to $30 million, but barely. Fortunately, the film is a lot cheaper than most tentpole releases and it is expected to do better business internationally, so it has a remote shot at breaking even sooner rather than later.
The Secret Life of Pets 2 opened with less than half of what The Secret Life of Pets made and due to its reviews and the Sequel Effect, it will likely have weaker legs as well. Fortunately, it has no direct competition, at least not this weekend, but that’s the only good news. Look for a 45% decline this weekend to just under $26 million.
Shaft is the first film in the franchise in 19 years. Unfortunately, it isn’t expected to do much better than the 2000 movie, and that’s without taking into account ticket price inflation. On the high end, it could challenge for second place with $25 million, but there are also some who think it will open with less than $20 million. The film’s reviews suggest the lower end is more likely, but I’m going to go right in the middle with $22 million.
Aladdin should have the best hold in the top five down less than 40% giving it a weekend haul of just over $15 million. If it can beat that number by any real measure, then it will be on pace for $300 million domestically. Additionally, it is holding on even better internationally, so it is quickly becoming one the biggest surprise hits of the year.
Dark Phoenix won’t be as lucky. Not only are its reviews among the worst for any wide release this year, it is also a sequel, it is a Fanboy film, and it is dealing with more or less direct competition. A decline of greater than 60% seems inevitable and that would leave it with under $13 million during sophomore stint. This should still be enough for fifth place.
Late Night had 2019’s best theater average for a limited release last weekend and this weekend it is expanding into more than 2,000 theaters. Additionally, it has the best reviews of the four new releases on this week’s list. This should help its chances reach the top five, but it is still a long shot. In fact, there are some who think it will open with less than $4 million debuting below the Mendoza Line. I’m not that pessimistic, but I don’t think it will be a smash hit either, earning $6 million during the weekend.
Finally there’s The Dead Never Die, which is opening in just over 600 theaters. This is more than initially expected and the film would only need a theater average of just over $5,000 to get there. The film’s writer / director, Jim Jarmusch, does have a some success at the box office in limited release, but this film’s reviews are among his worst, so it likely won’t be a box office success. I’m going with $2 million during its opening weekend, but anywhere from $3 million to $1 million wouldn’t be a real surprise.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Shaft, The Secret Life of Pets 2, Dark Phoenix, Aladdin, Men in Black: International, Late Night, The Dead Don’t Die, Men in Black, Shaft, Jim Jarmusch