Weekend Prediction: Endgame Takes Aim at The Force Awakens
May 2, 2019
Avengers: Endgame looks to break more records this weekend. It is specifically taking aim at The Force Awakens for the biggest second weekend of all time. If it can break this record, then The Force Awakens’s all-time Domestic title is in serious trouble. There are also a trio of wide releases opening this week, but I don’t think they will be a major factor at the box office. Long Shot is clearly the best and I think it will do well for a Romantic Comedy. UglyDolls’ reviews are not pretty, but they shouldn’t hurt this family film too much. Finally there's, The Intruder, which is not only the smallest release, but it is also earning the worst reviews. This weekend last year, Avengers: Infinity War dominated the chart, with Overboard earning second place with just under $15 million.
Avengers: Endgame has had similar legs to last year’s Avengers: Infinity War so far on the daily chart. That’s great news, because Infinity War fell a very respectable 55% during its sophomore stint. If Endgame manages the same sophomore stint decline that Infinity War managed, then it will earn just under $160 million this weekend. This would beat The Force Awakens’s record for biggest second weekend by $10 million. Endgame could fall 58% and still earn the record for 2nd weekend with $150 million. I think this is the most likely result, but even falling to $140 million this weekend would still be a fine result and merely the result of an extreme Fanboy Effect.
Long Shot is not only earning the best reviews of the weekend, but it is also the first real romantic comedy of the year. (Isn’t It Romantic was more of a deconstruction of romantic comedies.) Add in the star power and I think this film could be a bigger than expected hit. Pie in the sky, it could earn $20 million this weekend. Even $16 million will be enough to become a solid hit.
I wasn’t expecting UglyDolls to be an award-worthy movie, but I was expecting it would earning better reviews than this. Fortunately, while it is not winning over many critics, it doesn’t need to to find an audience in theaters. It needs to win over kids and I think it will win over enough to not bomb. I’m going with $14 million over the weekend, but it should have decent legs thanks to its target audience.
The Intruder is the smallest new release of the weekend and it is also earning the worst reviews of the three new releases. Additionally, it shares more of its target audience with Avengers: Endgame than the other two new releases do. This is going to spell disaster for the movie leaving it with an opening of just under $10 million.
Captain Marvel should earn fifth place over the weekend with about $5 million. If it does so, then it will have spent two full months in the top five. That’s amazing legs and will ensure there is a sequel, or two, in the works.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Captain Marvel, Avengers: Endgame, UglyDolls, Isn’t it Romantic, Long Shot, The Intruder