Friday Estimates: Dumbo Flies, But Doesn’t Reach Blockbuster Heights
March 30, 2019
Dumbo opened with $15.32 million on Friday. This is weaker than expected, but hardly a bad start. Its reviews are merely mixed, while it got an A minus from CinemaScore, so its legs should be decent. I don’t think it will reach $50 million over the weekend, so it will miss even low end expectations. That said, a $46 million opening is more than enough to get it to $100 million domestically and if it can find an audience internationally, it will break even sometime during its home market run.
Us fell 65% from its opening Friday to $10.19 million this Friday. A 65% decline is actually really good for a horror film and puts it on pace to match our $34 million prediction nearly perfectly. It is also enough to push the film’s running tally past $100 million after just eight days of release. It isn’t doing as well internationally, but it could break even just on its domestic box office, so its international numbers could be irrelevant.
Captain Marvel is beating expectations with $5.5 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $20 million over the weekend. This would normally keep it on pace for $400 million, with a little help from the studio. However, with Avengers: Endgame coming in a month, this push likely won’t be necessary.
Unplanned was next with $2.96 million. The film’s reviews are mixed and it is too small of a film to get a CinemaScore. However, faith-based films can have solid internal multipliers, as its target audience tends to see them on Sunday after church. If this is true of Unplanned, it will be Pure Flix’s biggest box office hit since God’s Not Dead. It could arguably be their only box office hit since God’s Not Dead.
Five Feet Apart earned fifth place with $1.96 million. This is better than expected, and should help the film top $6 million over the weekend. It might be enough to help it reach $50 million domestically.
Hotel Mumbai was the next of the three wide releases with $1.09 million on Friday to put it on pace for just under $3 million over the weekend. It has the best reviews of the new releases, so that should help its legs. On the other hand, it isn’t doing well enough to justify further significant expansion.
The Beach Bum is bombing with just $650,000 in just over 1,000 theaters. It will open below the Mendoza Line over the full weekend. Mixed reviews are not going to help its legs, while theater owners will be looking to drop this one as soon as they are contractually able to.
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Filed under: Friday Estimates, Captain Marvel, Dumbo, The Beach Bum, Us, Five Feet Apart, Hotel Mumbai, Unplanned