Weekend Estimates: Captain Marvel Continues to Fly High, Most New Releases Open Strong
March 17, 2019
Captain Marvel will remain in top spot on the weekend chart with an estimated $69.32 million, giving it a two-week total of $266.21 million. This is higher than predicted and a 55% decline bodes well for its future. It is already ahead of the lifetime domestic totals of eight previous installments in the MCU and it will quickly rise into the top ten. Internationally, the film added $119.7 million to its running tally, which now sits at $494.0 million, while its worldwide total rose to $760.2 million. Yesterday, I said the film could be in the top ten for the MCU. If these estimates hold, it will miss that mark by about $10 million. In fact, given its holds this weekend, it has a pathway to enter the top five. The film’s only, and last, new international opening was Japan. There the film’s estimated weekend opening was $5.6 million, which was the highest opening for a standalone film in the MCU. Meanwhile, outside of China, the film held on even better than it did domestically. China tends to be a very front-loaded market, but the film held on well enough there to get to $132.0 million after just two weeks, making it the fourth highest grossing film in the MCU already. It is even better in Indonesia where its two week total of $16.1 million is the fourth highest total of all-time. We will have more details on the international numbers later in the week.
Wonder Park is opening in a distant second place with an estimated weekend haul of $16.0 million. Its reviews are not going to help its legs, nor will its B plus from CinemaScore. Furthermore, it cost $100 million to make and it won’t be able to pay for that after a start like this. That said, it is a minor miracle the film is doing as well as it is.
Five Feet Apart is on the opposite end of that extreme, as it only cost $7 million to make and its estimated weekend haul is $13.15 million. Critics gave the film mixed reviews, but audiences liked the film a lot more, giving it an A-rating from CinemaScore. Even if it can’t find an audience internationally, it will break even early in its home market run.
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World is earning an estimated $9.35 million during its fourth weekend of release to push its running tally to $135.64 million. Internationally, the film is starting to slow down with $9.4 million over the weekend for totals of $330.9 million internationally and $466.5 million worldwide. Getting to $500 million worldwide seems like a very safe bet at this point.
Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral will pick up an estimated $8.08 million for a three-week total of $59.07 million. It is already just a hair below the Madea franchise average.
No Manches Frida 2 is a pleasant surprise, earning $3.89 million in just 472 theaters. It won’t be able to match its predecessor’s legs, as its early reviews are awful and sequels rarely have as strong legs as original films do. That said, this is still a fantastic start.
On the other hand, Captive State is bombing with an estimated $3.16 million during its opening weekend. Its reviews are mixed and it only managed a C minus from CinemaScore. A lot of theater owners are going to be dropping this film as soon as they are contractually able to, which is going to further hurt its legs.
- Wonder Park Comparisons
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- Five Feet Apart Comparisons
- Captive State Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Captain Marvel, Wonder Park, Captive State, Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral, Five Feet Apart, No Manches Frida 2, Madea, Marvel Cinematic Universe