Friday Estimates: Halloween Closing in on Venom’s October Record
October 20, 2018
Before the weekend began, people were asking if Halloween would top The Nun for biggest opening weekend for a horror film released this year. After Friday, no one is asking that question anymore, because the answer is obviously going to be yes. The film pulled in $33.34 million during its opening day, meaning it is within striking distance of Venom’s record for biggest October weekend. Venom earned $32.50 million during its opening day. Additionally, Halloween has 81% positive reviews and a B plus from CinemaScore, which is great for a horror film. On the other hand, horror films do tend to have shorter legs than comic book movies, so Halloween is essentially a coin-toss to break the record. Universal is going with $80.3 million, so we likely won’t know the answer until Monday when the final numbers show up.
A Star is Born remained in second place with $5.7 million over the weekend, putting it on pace for $19 million over the full weekend, which matches our prediction perfectly.
Venom was just a tiny bit weaker than expected with $5.05 million on Friday. Sony is predicting $17 million over the weekend after this result, compared to the $18 million we predicted before the weekend began. Meanwhile, the film remains on pace to become the studio’s first $200 million hit released in 2018. This is great news for a studio that has had more misses than hits over the past few years.
Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween matched expectations perfectly with $2.54 million on Friday, putting it on pace for just under $10 million during its sophomore stint. It will match its production budget domestically, so it should break even during its initial push into the home market.
On the other hand, First Man fell faster than expected, down to $2.50 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $8.59 million over the weekend. It cost $60 million to make, which is out of reach at this point, so unless it finds an audience internationally, it will struggle to break even any time soon.
The Hate U Give was one of three limited releases to expand significantly on Friday and it landed on the high end of expectations with $2.5 million in 2,303 theaters and should finish with about $7 million over the weekend. This isn’t a great run, but its reviews and its A plus from CinemaScore strongly suggest it will have longer than average legs in theaters from now on.
The Old Man and the Gun expanded into just over 800 theaters and earned $690,000 on Friday. It might get to $2.5 million over the weekend, which isn’t enough to expand significantly beyond where it is now, but it is also not so low that it will lose theaters at a rapid pace.
On the other hand, The Sisters Brothers’ semi-wide expansion didn’t go as well, as it earned $230,000 in 1,141 theaters on Friday. Its theater average will be well below $1,000 and I can see it losing a lot of theaters by next Friday.
On a more positive note, Can You Ever Forgive Me? opened with $44,000 in just 5 theaters on Friday. This start combined with its award-worthy reviews could lead to very long legs.
- Halloween Comparisons
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- The Hate U Give Comparisons
Filed under: Friday Estimates, Venom, The Sisters Brothers, Halloween, The Old Man and the Gun, A Star is Born, Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, The Nun, First Man, The Hate U Give