Weekend Prediction: Will Halloween Scare The Nun Out of First Place?

October 18, 2018

Halloween

Right now, The Nun has the best opening for a horror film released this year with $53.81 million during its opening weekend. Most people think Halloween will top this, while some think it will crush this number. In fact, high end predictions have this film earning more than the top ten earned this weekend last year. It would need more than $75 million to get there, albeit not that much more to do so. That’s still asking a lot. The only other “new release” of the week is The Hate U Give, which is indeed expanding truly wide. However, it is unlikely to hit the top five. This weekend last year, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2 earned first place with $21.23 million, while Geostorm was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. Halloween should earn more than $21.23 million during its opening day and there could be as many as five films earning $10 million or more. Even if there is as few as three $10 million films, 2018 will still easily top last year’s box office number giving the year yet another win in the year-over-year comparison.

Ticket presales for Halloween are reportedly better than they were for The Nun, which currently has the best opening weekend for a horror film this year. This is great news for Halloween, as its reviews are 83% positive at the moment and it should have much better legs than The Nun did as a result. The studio is predicting a $50 million opening, but studios almost always lowball their predictions, so the actual result will look better by comparison. I’ve seen predictions as high as $80 million, but I think somewhere between $60 million and $65 million is more likely. Let’s go with $63 million.

A Star is Born has overtaken Venom on the daily chart and isn’t dealing with direct competition this weekend, so it should remain in second place. It could earn as much as $20 million over the weekend, but $19 million is more likely.

Venom should be very close behind, even with the direct competition earning $18 million over the weekend. This will be enough to become Sony’s biggest hit released in 2018. Granted, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle earned more during the calendar year, but it was released in 2017.

First Man and Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween should be in a close race for fourth place, both earning about $10 million. In fact, I think it will be so close that the two films will switch places on the daily chart over the weekend, perhaps more than once.

The Hate U Give is expanding truly wide, which I didn’t think would happen. Its reviews are 97% positive, which should help its box office chances. On the other hand, it is never easy for a film to expand wide from limited release. On the high end, it might earn a theater average of just a tiny bit above $3,000, giving it $7 million over the weekend. On the low end, it will miss the Mendoza line with just $4 million over the weekend. I think the high end is a little more likely and I’m going with $6 million.

- Halloween Comparisons
- The Hate U Give Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Venom, Halloween, A Star is Born, Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, The Nun, First Man, The Hate U Give