Friday Estimates: Smooth Sailing for Transylvania, Skyscraper Burning Down
July 14, 2018
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation easily won the box office race on Friday with $16.65 million during its opening day. This is a bit better than expected and puts it on pace for an opening weekend of $44 million, including special previews that took place June 30th. Its reviews are just below the overall positive level, while it managed an A minus from CinemaScore. That’s as low as a family film can go before it would hurt its legs. It should get to $100 million domestically without difficulty, but it won’t match the previous films in the franchise. It will break even and could even justify a fourth film.
Skyscraper did not live up to expectations. It didn’t come close. It only managed $9.27 million on Friday, which is about a third less than needed to match predictions, putting it on pace for $25 million during its opening weekend. It’s hard to explain a missed prediction like this. Its reviews are not good, but they are also not bad; solidly mediocre. Meanwhile, it earned a B plus from CinemaScore. That’s right on the border between a good and a bad result for an action film like this. Part of me wants to blame Legendary Pictures, which has had a lot more box office flops than hits over the past several years. On the other hand, this film was clearly made to win over audiences in China, so its domestic box office could turn out to be immaterial.
Ant-Man and the Wasp landed in third place on Friday with $8.41 million, but it will climb into second place over the full weekend with $29 million. However, this is still more than 60% lower than its opening weekend. The film still has a shot at $200 million domestically, if it can recover next weekend.
Sorry to Bother You expanded into just over 800 theaters, and earned $1.49 million on Friday. Its theater average over the weekend will be enough that it could expand further, but I don’t think it will expand truly wide. That said, it will quickly rise up the ranks for limited releases for the year.
Speaking of limited releases, Eighth Grade could have the best opening for any limited release of the year. Its weekend opening is expected to be close to $240,000 in just four theaters, putting it in a virtual tie with Isle of Dogs for highest opening weekend theater average of 2018.
- Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation Comparisons
- Skyscraper Comparisons
Filed under: Friday Estimates, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, Skyscraper, Sorry to Bother You, Eighth Grade, Hotel Transylvania