Friday Estimates: Hidden Hogs the Spotlight
January 14, 2017
Hidden Figures unexpectedly led the way on Friday with $5.53 million. This is 28% lower than last Friday, but that was the film’s first weekend wide and this is a holiday weekend, so it should bounce back a lot over the rest of the weekend. Award-worthy reviews and continued Awards Season presence will also help the film earn about $23 million over the four-day weekend. Its running tally will be about $57 million on Monday, putting it on pace for $100 million domestically.
The Bye Bye Man opened in a very close second place, but it won’t stay there for long. It pulled in $5.43 million on Friday, but as a horror film with 27% positive reviews and a C from CinemaScore, it will collapse during the rest of the weekend. Even taking into account horror’s usual struggles with CinemaScore, a C is going to hurt its legs. That said, it should make between $15 million and $16 million over the weekend, which is more than it cost to make. In fact, it will make enough during its opening weekend for STX to recoup its entire production budget, so as long as it earns at least $15 million to $16 million during the rest of its domestic run and finds a similar audience internationally, it will break even before it hits the home market.
Patriots Day debuted in third place with $4.13 million on Friday. Unfortunately, it will also slip down the box office chart as the weekend continues. It does have excellent reviews and it did earn an A+ from CinemaScore. I fear that, given the lower than expected box office start, its strong CinemaScore is due to the lack of crossover appeal. Like many faith-based films or family films, only those really motivated to see the movie saw it opening day and that inflates its CinemaScore. This will hurt its legs over the weekend, keeping it out of the top five with just over $14 million.
La La Land was right behind with $4.1 million on Friday, but it should do better over the rest of the weekend with $17 million. The film still hasn’t expanded truly wide, but it will get there possible as early as next weekend. It will also get to $100 million domestically, probably the weekend after that.
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story lost nearly 1,000 theaters on Friday, but it still landed in fifth place with $3.24 million. This matches expectations nearly perfectly, so look for $16 million over the weekend for a total of just over $500 million by Monday.
Sleepless missed the top five with $3.02 million on Friday. Its reviews are only 12% positive, while its CinemaScore is a better B+. Look for an opening weekend of $10 million, which is a little better than we predicted, which is the truly sad part.
Sing fell to seventh place with $2.93 million, but because it is the only family film in the top ten, it will bounce back over the weekend to earn nearly $18 million. This will be enough to climb a spot into second place.
Monster Trucks earned eighth place with $2.6 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $10 million over the four-day weekend. Its reviews are terrible, but it did earn an A from CinemaScore, so this suggests it is doing better with families. This in turn should help it earn about $12 million over the four-day weekend. This is still a disaster for a film that cost $125 million to make, but not as bad as it could have been.
Live by Night rounded out the new releases / expansions by earning ninth place with $1.95 million on Friday. Weak reviews and a B from CinemaScore won’t help things going forward, so look for $7 million over the weekend and a quick exit from theaters.
Filed under: Friday Estimates, Monster Trucks, Live by Night, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, The Bye Bye Man, Sing, Patriots Day, La La Land, Hidden Figures