Holidays Coming Early

November 12, 2004

This weekend also sees the opening of three more films in wide release, (including Polar Express, which opened on Wednesday) and another with opens in just several hundred theatres, but should still finish in the top ten. It's a busy weekend for moviegoers indeed, one reminiscent of the Thanksgiving Holiday weekend.

Even with the vast amount of competition, The Incredibles should still retain top spot on the box office charts. Given its reviews and Pixar's track record a drop of more than 40% seems unlikely. That gives up a $43 million weekend, and with major holidays around the corner, it should earn a lot more before its run is over.

Polar Express didn’t open as well as expected on Wednesday, and this could be because the studio didn't get the word out that the film opened early. Or it could simply mean the interest in the film is not as high as expected. The latter is a large enough possibility that adjusting the earlier prediction downwards is in order, so look for roughly $27 million this weekend.

The second new release this week is the heist film, After the Sunset. Reviews for the film has been dismal, and I fear the box office will be little better. The best the studio can hope for is just south of $20 million this weekend, but $13 million is more likely, and mediocre legs at best.

Only the second returning film in the top five, Ray will continue to show strong legs with just over $9 million at the box office.

The final two new releases will battle for fifth place, both with roughly $8 million. But their performance at the box office could be the only similarity between them.

Seed of Chucky is the fifth film in the Child's Play franchise, a franchise that has lasted more than 15 years so far. Reviews for the film are, well, nonexistent, which is never a good sign, even for a film such as this. But with a nearly 4 - 1 edge in theatre count, it should have a slight edge for the final place in the top five.

Lastly we have Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason, the sequel to 2001's Bridget Jones's Diary. The cast is all back, but obviously something went wrong because the reviews are only a fraction of what the original earned. The poor reviews, and the small theatre count, will most likely keep the film out of the top five this weekend. And even with a large expansion, poor word of mouth may stop it for making it there next weekend as well.


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