Tight Presidential Race

February 18, 2005

Presidents' Day Long Weekend isn't the busiest holiday of the year, but it should give a boost to the box office nonetheless. Looking at the reviews of the three new releases, this weekend is going to need a boost.

Last weekend's winner, Hitch has about a 50/50 chance of remaining in top spot this weekend. Helped by the holidays, this record breaking romantic comedy should drop a shallow 35% leaving it at $28 million over the three day period and $33 million if you include Monday. That will put it on pace to hit $100 million early next weekend.

The first of three debuts, Constantine is also aiming for a $28 million debut. Reviews are mixed, with a sharp divide between the Cream of the Crop reviewers and their Run of the Mill brethren. If the moviegoers get caught up in the action and special effects, this film could take top spot with more than $30 million, and maybe it even has a shot at $40 million. Or they could overwhelmed but the "been there, done that" feel, and the film could struggle to hit $20 million. So look for $28 million and possibly the win on the 3-day weekend, and $32 million as second place over four day.

The next new release is Because of Winn-Dixie, a movie with some old fashion charm. However, it is a little too old fashion for most critics. This film is getting a much wider release than anticipated, but I don't think that's going to help a whole lot, as it could struggle to make it to $10 million. I think it will make it there, but $11 million will probably be out of reach. On the other hand, this film should benefit the most on Monday (at least percent wise), and end up with $14 million overall.

The last new film this weekend could be the worst reviewed movie of 2005. Yeah, I know I've said that more than a few times already this year, but Son of the Mask is receiving a beating with the critics and so far has only one positive review (which is one more than I was expecting). That's even worse than Dumb and Dumberer, the previous Jim Carrey sequel made without the star. This film should have a similar run with a $9 million / $11 million start and a short theatrical run.

Rounding out the top five should be either Are We There Yet? or Million Dollar Baby, both with $6 million / $7.5 million over the weekend.


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Filed under: Hitch, Million Dollar Baby, Constantine, Because of Winn-Dixie, Son of the Mask, Are We There Yet?