April 25th, 2013
It is the final weekend before the Summer blockbuster season, which means the new releases this weekend are not prime releases. Pain and Gain at least has a shot at first place. Most think The Big Wedding won't crack $10 million during the weekend. The only good news is that last year was also a bad week at the box office. The biggest new release was The Pirates! Band of Misfits, which had to settle for second place with just $11.14 million, while Think Like a Man remained in first place with $17.60 million. I think 2013's one-two-punch will top 2012's one-two punch. However, last year had better depth and 2013 will again lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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April 18th, 2013
It is no secret that 2013 has been a bad year at the box office so far. There's only one film debuting wide this week, Oblivion, which should benefit from the lack of competition this weekend. (Although we are already seeing plenty of hype for Iron Man 3, which could hurt this film's chance at the box office.) There are also several films opening in more than 100 theaters: Filly Brown, Home Run, and The Lords of Salem. There's a chance one of them will be a better than expected hit and reach the top ten; it's a slim chance, but a chance. Finally, The Place Beyond the Pines is expanding to an additional 1,000 theaters and should climb higher in the top ten. Last year, there were three wide releases led by Think Like a Man. That film was a bigger than expected hit, but hopefully Oblivion will have an even better start, but not everyone is positive it will.
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April 15th, 2013
42 earned an easy win at the box office, in part due to a better than expected performance, but also in part due to really weak competition. It did manage 16th place on the list of April openings and 20th best April weekend overall, which is worth celebrating. Scary Movie 5, on the other hand, struggled and only a low production budget will save it or the franchise. The overall box office was down 13% from last week to $117 million; however, that's 2% higher than the same weekend last year, so there's another reason to celebrate. Year-to-date, 2013 is still taking a beating and is off 2012's pace by 11% at $2.62 billion to $2.95 billion.
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April 14th, 2013
Sports movies can be a risky proposition financially. While they potentially have a built-in audience among fans of the sport in question, they can also turn off people who don't much care for the sport. It takes a really compelling story to reach out to non-fans, and it seems as though the story of Jackie Robinson is compelling enough to draw in a broad audience for 42, which will open atop the box office chart this weekend with a projected $27.25 million, according to Warner Bros.' Sunday morning estimate. A 25% uptick on Saturday suggests good word of mouth for the film so far. Less good word of mouth is being earned by Scary Movie 5, which is projected to end in second place with $15.15 million. That's well behind previous outings for the franchise, which have clustered around the $40 million mark.
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April 12th, 2013
It's a two-way race for top spot at the box office this weekend with both Scary Movie 5 and 42. Just last week it looked like Scary Movie 5 would win, but as 42's box office prospects have risen, its have fallen. It is not a sure thing that 42 will win and it should be a close race, but it does have a slight edge. This weekend last year was led by... The Hunger Games ... for the fourth week in a row. It's the last time I have to say that. There were two other new releases that made an impact at the box office: The Three Stooges and The Cabin in the Woods. I think the new releases this year will be better than last year, but The Hunger Games will be the tie-breaker.
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April 1st, 2013
March is over and while it is a little too soon to tell where a few films will end their box office runs, it is clear Oz The Great and Powerful won the month. Some films beat expectations to become midlevel hits, like The Call, but it wasn't a great month at the box office, especially compared to last year. This month, there are only seven wide releases spread over four weeks. Only one of those films, Oblivion, has a shot at being anything more than a midlevel hit. None of the other six releases look like they will come close to $100 million, but none of them look like obvious bombs either. (Although I do have my worries when it comes to Scary Movie 5.) Last April was even weaker with no film earning $100 million, although Think Like a Man did come relatively close. We might actually see growth on the year-over-year comparison. We'd better, because 2013 is behind 2012's pace by a huge margin at the moment and things will get worse when May arrives.
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