October 3rd, 2017
It is not a great week for home market releases. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales is the biggest release of the week, but it is far from the best. As for the Pick of the Week contenders, they are all horror themed. Cult of Chucky is surprisingly good, especially for a franchise that’s lasted seven installments. Don't Torture A Duckling is a giallo film, and an important one in its director’s career. Up next is iZombie: Season Three, which is amazing, but it is always on the edge of being canceled. Finally, there's Vampyr: Criterion Collection Blu-ray. In the end, I went with the Don't Torture A Duckling: Special Edition as the Pick of the Week. Meanwhile, Goon: Last of the Enforcers Blu-ray Combo Pack earned Puck of the Week, for the best Canadian release.
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July 12th, 2016
It is a very slow week for the home market. The biggest release of the week is The Divergent: Series Allegiant, which is a movie most people should avoid. (Looking at its box office numbers, most people did avoid it.) As for the best releases, Belladonna Of Sadness is amazing, but the screener arrived late and I don’t like handing out that title when I haven’t had a chance to check out the full release. Fortunately, we do have a backup contender, Everybody Wants Some on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
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March 19th, 2016
As expected, The Divergent Series: Allegiant opened in first place on Friday. However, it only managed $11.9 million, which is barely more than half of what Divergent and Insurgent made during their opening days. That’s bad, but it gets worse. You have to take into account the reviews, which are stuck at a mere 10% positive. Its CinemaScore is better, but even that's only a B, which is a full letter grade below what Divergent and Insurgent earned. $30 million over the weekend is probably out of the question, although it should come close. If the reports are correct and it cost $110 million to make, then there’s very little hope it will break even any time soon. If the final film in the franchise, Ascendant, suffers a similar decline, then the franchise might end up costing Lionsgate money.
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March 18th, 2016
There are three wide releases coming out this week. This includes The Divergent Series: Allegiant, which, at the beginning of the month, was widely expected to earn first place during its debut. However, Zootopia's success at the box office combined with Allegiant's failure with critics will likely result in Zootopia in earning first place, again. Miracles from Heaven is the latest faith-based film to hit theaters. It might struggle simply because there is too much recent competition for this still niche-market. Finally there's The Bronze, which is opening in just over 1,000 theaters. If it can avoid the Mendoza Line, or at least come close, then it will reach the top ten. That should be doable, maybe. This weekend last year, Insurgent earned first place with just over $52 million, while Cinderella earned second place with close to $35 million. I think Zootopia will come close to Cinderella, but Allegiant will fall far short of Insurgent and that will result in 2016 losing in the year-over-year comparison.
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March 1st, 2016
It's March 1st, which is not only the beginning of the month, but also Super Tuesday. If you are not American and don't pay attention to American politics, Super Tuesday is sort of like the Oscar night of the primary season. I was going to write about my predictions, but it looks like the race is about to be over. On the Republicans side, if Trump gets more than 50% of the delegates, then he has won. It will be too late to stop him. If he gets less than 40%, then it becomes a real race again. If the polling is correct, then he will get closer to 50% than 40%. On the Democratic side, Sanders needs at least 45% of the delegates, or it is over for him. Anything less than that and Hillary Clinton will have too big a lead to overcome. If the South Carolina result is an indicator, Hillary Clinton could get two-thirds of the delegates awarded tonight.
As for the box office, February was amazing, thanks to Deadpool's record-breaking opening and better than expected legs. The month ended with 2016 being nearly 4% higher than 2015's pace. Additionally, there are some big releases coming out this month with both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice looking to get more than $200 million, while Allegiant should hit $100 million. Last March, there were also three films that earned more than $100 million, but only one $200 million hit, Cinderella. It should be a really close race between 2016 and 2015.
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November 22nd, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay—Part 2 is about to record the most disappointing $100 million weekend ever, based on Sunday’s estimate from Lionsgate. Why disappointing? Because its $101.025 million projected opening follows the $158 million earned by Catching Fire on this weekend in 2013 (then the sixth-biggest weekend ever), and the $122 million debut of Mockingjay—Part 1 this weekend last year. That marks a decline of 20% or so from one installment of the franchise to the next, which is the worst performance of any franchise to have recorded a $100 million start. Global numbers tell a similar story: $247 million this weekend against Part 1’s $275 million. However, once we get that troubling statistic out the way, this is also a reason for celebration: $100 million domestically and $250 million globally in one weekend is still a huge amount of money, and caps a spectacularly successful franchise for Lionsgate.
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September 3rd, 2015
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Only two and a half new releases from August 2nd reached the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for August 9th chart. Insurgent led the way with 904,000 units and $14.71 million during its first week of release for a Blu-ray share of 54%. This is substantially lower than Divergent's opening week, which is a troubling sign for the franchise. Speaking of the franchise, there was also a Double-Feature, which placed third with 130,000 units / $2.98 million for an opening week Blu-ray share of 48%.
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September 1st, 2015
As September begins, the box office is in a slump. August was terrible and only Straight Outta Compton escaped with its dignity intact. Fortunately, we expected August to be terrible, so the box office isn't any lower than anticipated. As for September, there are two wide releases expected to earn more than $100 million, which is better than most years. Those two films are Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Hotel Transylvania 2, both sequels. There are four other films that could become midlevel hits, so we have good depth as well. By comparison, last September there were also two $100 million hits, The Maze Runner and The Equalizer. However, there were only two midlevel hits, so it appears this year has better depth. Frankly, 2015 has such a large lead over 2014 that all it needs to do is maintain pace for the rest of the year to be considered a success. If September can help 2015 grow its lead, then the overall industry should be very happy.
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March 31st, 2015
After a couple of soft weeks at the box office, both new wide releases beat expectations. In fact, Home nearly doubled predictions. Get Hard also beat expectations, albeit by a smaller margin. Add in solid runs by the holdovers and the overall box office was very strong at $150 million. This is 19% higher than last week and 7.3% higher than the same weekend last year. We can thank Home entirely for this win. If it had merely matched predictions, 2015 would have lost the in the year-over-year comparisons. Year-to-date, 2015 is ahead of 2014 by a 2.0% margin at $2.37 billion to $2.32 billion.
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March 26th, 2015
There is an actual race at the box office this weekend. This is rare, because there's usually one obvious number one film, as studios don't want to deal with competition. However, this week, both Get Hard and Home have a shot at first place with $30 million or so. Additionally, there are two other films, Insurgent and Cinderella, that are aiming to reach $20 million over the weekend. That's a lot of depth. There is one final film of note, It Follows, which is expanding semi-wide and could find a spot in the top five. This weekend last year, the box office was led by Noah with $43.72 million, while two other films, Divergent and Muppets Most Wanted earned more than $10 million. 2015 has better depth, but it won't be as strong at the top. I'm not sure which year will come out on top, but it should be close.
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March 24th, 2015
As expected, Insurgent led the way at the box office; however, it didn't live up to Divergent's opening from last year. Worse still, both The Gunman and Do You Believe? failed to match low expectations. Overall, the box office did dip from last week, but by less than $1 million or 0.5%. Its decline from last year was more troublesome at 7.3%. Year-to-date, 2015 is still ahead of 2014, but by only 2.2% at $2.18 billion to $2.13 billion.
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