September 16th, 2014
The Christmas Shopping Season is kicking into high gear with a great mix of first-run releases, as well as TV on DVD releases. The biggest release of the week is Godzilla and while it is worth picking up on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, or 3D Combo Pack, it isn't quite Pick of the Week material. For that, we turn to The Fault in Our Stars on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack and Eraserhead on Blu-ray (Criterion Collection). It was a close call, but in the end, I went with The Fault in Our Stars.
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June 30th, 2014
As expected, Transformers: Age of Extinction easily won the race for the top of the box office chart and became the first film released in 2014 to earn more than $100 million during its opening weekend. Granted, it barely made it, but we will take it. This helped the overall box office climb by 20% to $190 million over the weekend. Unfortunately, this was still 8% lower than the same weekend last year when Monsters University repeated at the box office champion. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in $5.11 billion, which is 0.3% below 2013's pace of $5.13 billion. This is still close enough that we shouldn't panic, but the trajectory is going in the wrong direction.
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June 29th, 2014
Transformers: Age of Extinction is set to deliver the year’s biggest weekend, as it performs to sell-out crowds across the country. Paramount is projecting a weekend total of $100 million as of Sunday morning, which honestly seems like a conveniently round number. Perhaps the studio is playing it safe, and the actual weekend number will be a few million over $100 million? Or maybe they’re hoping that announcing a $100 million weekend will help encourage people to theaters today and push the film over the line? Based on the numbers we’re seeing, it looks more like the latter, and we’ll have to wait until Monday to see if Age of Extinction will actually be the first $100 million opener of the year. At the end of the day, it probably doesn’t matter a huge amount: $99 million versus $101 million is a rounding error, and the film has topped $200 million internationally this weekend, which is a great start towards repaying its reported $210 million production budget.
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June 26th, 2014
There is only one wide release of the week, but it is a potential monster hit. It is also potentially the last in a very profitable franchise. Transformers: Age of Extinction is the fourth film in the Transformers franchise, a franchise that has averaged more than $350 million at the box office. However, they have also averaged well below 50% positive reviews and the poor critical response could finally be taking its toll. It will still crush the competition this weekend, but it likely won't live up to past installments in the franchise. It will also beat last year's new releases and more than double the first place film; however that might not be enough to save 2014. Last year there were five films that pulled in $20 million or more. This year there will be only one. In fact, there will be only four films that pull in $10 million or more.
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June 24th, 2014
There were three films in the $10,000 club. They were led by the number one film on the overall chart, Think Like a Man Too, with an average of $13,142 in more than 2,000 theaters. Venus in Fur was close behind with an average of $12,381 in two theaters. The final film in this list was Le Chef with $11,290 in one theater.
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June 24th, 2014
This weekend was a disaster. Think Like a Man Too couldn't even live up to the original's opening, which is terrible for a sequel. Jersey Boys opened on the low end of lower expectations. Unfortunately, the holdovers weren't able to take advantage of the weak openings and the overall box office plummeted 22% to just $146 million. Compared to last year, the overall box office was down 39%. That's a disaster. There's no other way to describe it. Last year's number one film, Monster University made more money during its opening day than Think Like a Man Too made during the full weekend. It made more during its opening weekend than the top three films this year made. Even worse, 2014 has lost its lead over 2013. Granted, it is still close at $4.86 billion to $4.88 million, or just 0.3%, but it wasn't that long ago that 2014 was on a record-setting pace. Transformers: Age of Extinction should help turn things around next weekend, but I don't think that film will help in the long run.
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June 22nd, 2014
Mid-Summer weekend will produce a near tie at the box office, according to estimates released on Sunday, with Sony in first and second place. Think Like a Man Too will come out top with about $30 million, according to the studio—basically in line with the $33 million earned by the first film in the franchise. That portends a total that will fall short of the $91.5 million earned by the previous outing domestically, and with limited international appeal, this installment will be solidly, but not spectacularly profitable. Enough for a third film? Probably.
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June 19th, 2014
There are two wide releases coming out this week, but none of them are expected to be monster hits. Think Like a Man Too could eventually get to $100 million, while Jersey Boys might become a midlevel hit, but no more than that. There are a couple of holdovers that should be very big players at the box office, as both How to Train Your Dragon 2 and 22 Jump Street will earn close to $30 million over the next three days. On the other hand, this weekend last year there were two monster hits, Monster University and World War Z, as well as a holdover, Man of Steel, that will make more than either of the two new releases this year will make. 2014 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison.
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June 13th, 2014
Next weekend, Think Like a Man 2 and Jersey Boys open. It appears that Jersey Boys is going to open much wider that Thinking Like a Man 2, but Thinking Like a Man 2 is very likely to top Jersey Boys on the weekend chart. As such, it is the choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Think Like a Man 2.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Non-Stop on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Non-Stop on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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June 1st, 2014
It is too soon to tell how May will end, as this story will be published before the weekend estimates came out. (Maleficent had an excellent start on Friday, unlike A Million Ways to Die in the West.) Overall, it was a good month with at least three movies that are on track to hit $200 million, but there was no really big winner for the month. It was nice and balanced. Unfortunately, last May there was a monster hit, Iron Man 3, and 2014 could not compete with that, so it lost ground to 2013. June hopes to turn things around and there are some reasons to be optimistic. All four weeks there is at least one film opening that at least has a shot at $100 million. There are even two films that at least have a shot at $300 million. Transformers: Age of Extinction should win the monthly box office race while How to Train Your Dragon 2 is a long shot to win, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if it did. Additionally, 22 Jump Street, Edge of Tomorrow, The Fault in Our Stars, and Think Like a Man 2 are all contenders for the century club. Not all of them will get to that milestone, but all of them at least have a short. Last June, there were three films that reached $200 million, including Man of Steel, which nearly reached $300 million. It looks like June of 2014 will be about as strong as June of 2013, more or less. If all films reach their potential, it could win the year-over-year comparison. Unless there are some shocking bombs, it shouldn't struggle so much that 2014 loses its lead over 2013 entirely.
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