Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Home Market Releases for January 23rd, 2018

January 22nd, 2018

It’s a really slow week on the home market. There are only a few releases that went anywhere at the box office, led by Jigsaw, which is a bad movie. Meanwhile, Geostorm is so bad it’s good. It’s fun, if you are into B movies, but it’s not Pick of the Week material. The only real contenders are Jane, which is only coming out on Video on Demand, and Attack of the Killer Tomatoes, which is getting a Two-Disc Special Edition. In the end, I went with Attack of the Killer Tomatoes, mainly because Jane doesn’t come out on DVD / Blu-ray until next month. More...

Home Market Releases for January 9th, 2018

January 9th, 2018

Usually this is a terrible time of year on the home market, because it is too late for the summer blockbusters, but too early for the holiday hits. However, the home market is terrible this week, because It comes out and it destroyed records at the box office and is scaring away nearly all of the competition. Fortunately, its reviews were very good, so it is a contender for Pick of the Week. Its main competition are two classics, Inherit the Wind and Young Mr. Lincoln. All three are worth picking up, but I’m giving the title to It, because of its wider appeal. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Thor Hammers Competition with $122.74 million

November 7th, 2017

Thor: Ragnarok beat predictions by a substantial margin earning the fourth biggest opening weekend of the year. Its opening weekend haul of $122.74 million helped this weekend rise 135% compared to last weekend hitting $179 million. Unfortunately, while Thor: Ragnarok was a monster hit, the rest of the box office wasn’t able to make much of an impact, leaving the overall box office down 6.6% from this weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $8.77 billion, putting it behind 2016's pace at 4.9% or $450 million. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Box Office is Cut to Pieces, Earning Just $75 million

October 31st, 2017

It was a terrible weekend at the box office with only two films cracking $10 million, Jigsaw and Tyler Perry’s Boo 2: A Madea Halloween. Geostorm earned third place with just $5.90 million. Overall, the box office fell 21% from last weekend to just $75 million. More importantly, this is 15% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 continues to struggle with a running tally of $8.57 billion. This is $470 million or $5.2% below last year’s pace, meaning we fell behind last year’s pace by a further 0.2 percentage points. The box office really needed to be eating into the deficit during the month of October, but that hasn’t been the case. More...

Friday Estimates: Jigsaw Cuts Its Way to the Top with $7.17 million

October 28th, 2017

As predicted, Jigsaw led the way on Friday. However, it didn’t do as well as previews suggested, as it earned $7.17 million during its opening day. I don’t expect its legs to improve during the rest of the weekend, as its reviews are just 37% positive, and it earned a B from CinemaScore. It will still do better than our $14 million prediction, but not by as much as we thought it would yesterday. Look for $17 million over the weekend, which is the second weakest opening in the franchise and the weakest in terms of ticket sales. I really think Lionsgate will end this franchise, at least for a while. Perhaps, in ten years or so, we will get a remake. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Jigsaw Grabs a $1.6 million Piece of the Box Office

October 27th, 2017

Jigsaw earned $1.6 million during its midnight previews last night. Happy Death Day earned an even $1 million during its previews on its way to a $26 million opening. However, there are many factors that will result in shorter legs. For instance, Happy Death Day earned better reviews, while Jigsaw is the latest installment in a long-running franchise. Finally, Happy Death Day’s target audience skewed female, while Jigsaw skews male and men are more likely to rush out to see a movie than women are. That said, this is a great start and the film should easily top our prediction with at least $20 million during its opening weekend. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Jigsaw Still Fit at the Box Office?

October 26th, 2017

There are three wide releases coming out this week, although only Jigsaw is expected to make any real impact at the box office. The other two, Suburbicon and Thank You for Your Service, are opening in barely more than 2,000 theaters and neither of them are expected to do well at the box office. Meanwhile, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2: A Madea Halloween, has an actual shot at repeating in first place, mostly because of the weak competition. This is terrible news for the overall box office, as it means we are going to have a hard time matching last year’s box office, even though last year there was only one wide release, Inferno. More...

2017 Preview: October

October 1st, 2017

September destroyed the previous September monthly record for total box office take, with $800 million or so (we won’t know the exact figure until after the weekend), which tops 2016’s record of $616 million. Granted, this is almost entirely due to It’s record breaking run, and the rest of the month was merely average. Kingsman: The Golden Circle was the only other film to come close to $100 million. October doesn’t look any better, as far as depth is concerned. Blade Runner 2049 is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the month, but it is the only film expected to reach $100 million domestically. Boo 2 should be the second biggest hit of the month, while there are only a couple of other films that have a shot at $50 million. Part of the problem is the level of competition, as there are 16 films opening during the four October weekends. (Needless to say, some of the predictions below will be a little short, as there’s not much to say about a film that will barely open in the top ten and disappear two weeks later.) That’s way too many and most will be buried by the competition. Last October was a flop, as no film earned more than $100 million at the box office. There were a few films that came close, including the original Boo! movie. As long as Blade Runner 2049 matches expectations, 2017 should win the year-over-year comparison by a small margin. If we get one surprise hit, then 2017 has a real shot at closing the gap with 2016 by a significant margin. I choose to be cautiously optimistic. More...

Thank You for Your Service Trailer

June 20th, 2017

Drama starring Miles Teller and Haley Bennett opens October 27 ... Full Movie Details. More...