Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

2019 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part I - First-Run Releases and Franchise Box Sets

November 27th, 2019

It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This year, Thanksgiving is as late as it could have been, which means there’s no way to squeeze in four weeks of regular installments of the gift guide, as well as the December monthly preview, etc. So we are going to have a condensed list this year. That said, there weren’t a ton of first-run releases that would have made this list regardless. More...

Home Market Releases for November 19th, 2019

November 19th, 2019

It is not a prime week on the home market with Dora and the Lost City of Gold being the biggest first run release. It is worth picking up, but not a contender for Pick of the Week. There were a lot of contenders for that title, including Cold War: The Criterion Collection, Fruits Basket: Season One, Part One, and Rock ‘n’ Roll High School: 40th Anniversary Edition. In the end, I went with Rock ‘n’ Roll High School, but all three will end up in my Blu-ray collection before long. More...

Home Market Releases for October 22nd, 2019

October 23rd, 2019

The Lion King is scaring away all of the competition and while the Blu-ray / 4K Ultra HD is not Pick of the Week material, there’s almost nothing else to talk about. It might be worth buying WorldEnd: What Do You Do at the End of the World? Are You Busy? Will You Save Us?: The Complete Series just because of that ridiculously long name. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Angel has a Divine Debut

August 27th, 2019

Angel Has Fallen led the way at the weekend with $21.38 million. There were some other pleasant surprises in the top ten and this helped the overall box office to a surprise win. It was down 9.6% from last weekend to $108 million; however, this was 5.6% higher than the same weekend last year and we haven’t had many reasons to celebrate in the year-over-year competition, so let’s focus on that. Year-to-date, 2019 is still behind 2018 and is so by nearly identical margins as last weekend at 6.3% or $500 million. This is still a deep hole to try and climb out of, especially since there are only four months left in the year, and I will be happy if we can just cut that gap in half by the end of the year. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Good Does Well, Box Office is Still Weak

August 20th, 2019

It’s the dog days of summer and Good Boys was the only new release with an impressive debut of $21.40 million, while The Angry Birds Movie 2’s $16.09 million six-day debut isn’t a bad start for this time of year. There were a few holdovers to earn more than $10 million over the weekend, so the overall box office wasn’t a disaster, just a disappointment down 9.5% from last weekend to $119 million. More importantly, this is 7.7% lower the the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $7.35 billion, but this is 6.3% or $490 million behind last year’s pace. At this point, I don’t think it is possible for 2019 to catch up, but hopefully it can put together a strong last few months to at least save face. Additionally, the international box office is doing better, so worldwide it is close to a wash. More...

Weekend Estimates: Universally Good Weekend at the Box Office

August 18th, 2019

Good Boys and Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw are topping the weekend box office chart, so while the overall box office isn’t doing well, Universal is having a great weekend. Good Boys is leading the way with $21.0 million, which is not only better than our predictions, but better than Universal’s projections based on Friday’s estimates. It’s not all rosy, as the film’s reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore don’t suggest really long legs, while this is not the type of film to do well internationally. In fact, it is only pulling in $2.1 million during its opening weekend overseas, including $1.0 million in the U.K. More...

Friday Estimates: Good Does Great

August 17th, 2019

Good Boys earned first place on the Friday chart with $8.31 million. Universal is projecting a $20.8 million opening weekend based on this start, which would give the film a rather low internal multiplier. This is due to its reviews and its mere B plus from CinemaScore, neither of which are bad, but they are not great either. It would still be the fastest opening for a comedy all year and this is the first R-rated comedy to top the chart since The Boss debuted more than three years ago. On the one hand, this is great news for Good Boys. On the other hand, what the hell happened to the genre? R-rated comedies used to regularly earn $100 million or more at the box office. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Good Doing Better

August 16th, 2019

We have preview numbers for a couple of new releases. Good Boys managed an impressive $2.1 million on Thursday, putting it in a great position to top our prediction by a substantial margin. I would love to get a pleasant surprise at the box office right now. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will the Box Office get Angry?

August 15th, 2019

Like last weekend, there are five wide releases coming out this weekend, and again, this is just too many. I can’t imagine all of them will find an audience. In fact, I would be less surprised if none of them really found an audience and Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw remained in first place, than if all of them found an audience. The Angry Birds Movie 2 is the biggest of the new releases, but it debuted on Tuesday, so its demand will be deflated by the weekend. Good Boys has deceptively good reviews, but the buzz isn’t where it should be. 47 Meters Down: Uncaged is a horror film entering a too-crowded market. Meanwhile, both Blinded By the Light and Where’d You Go, Bernadette? will be lucky to avoid the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Crazy Rich Asians opened. It wasn’t a monster hit out of the gate, but it was a bigger hit than anything opening this weekend. More...

2019 Preview: August

August 1st, 2019

July bounced back from June with both Spider-Man: Far from Home and The Lion King getting to $1 billion worldwide. Domestically, we are still behind 2018’s pace by more than $400 million, but that’s a substantial improvement over where we were at the start of the month. August should continue this winning streak, at least initially. Hobbs and Shaw could open with close to $100 million, but the only other film opening this month that has a real shot at $100 million in total is Dora and the Lost City of Gold. Last August, both Crazy Rich Asians and The Meg topped $100 million, while Christopher Robin came within 1% of that milestone. This August might be better at the very top, but I don’t think the top three this month will top the top three last month. Maybe if we get a surprise hit, it will, but I’m not willing to bet on that. On the other hand, unless something dramatic happens, 2019 should at least come close to matching last year’s pace and that’s better than most months have done this year. More...