Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Weekend predictions: Come Play slight favorite to win the weekend

October 30th, 2020

Although it’s unlikely to break any records (even pandemic-era ones), Come Play has a good chance to topping the box office this Halloween weekend, according to our model, which puts its opening weekend around $2.2 million. That’s not far enough ahead of Honest Thief for a win to be certain. Anything less would almost certainly point to another down weekend overall at the box office. More...

New at The Numbers: Actuals vs. Inflation-Adjusted Figures for Movie Comparisons

October 31st, 2019

We are happy to announce that we have added a switch to our custom movie comparison pages that allows for switching between the actual figures and figures adjusted for inflation. The switch, located above the titles when creating a movie comparison chart, can change the Production Budget, Domestic Opening Weekend, Domestic Box Office, International Box Office, and Worldwide Box Office from "Actuals" to "Infl-Adj".

Our Movie Comparison feature creates a custom graph and table of up to 6 films, allowing for the easy comparison of total box office results and a breakdown of the films' daily, weekend, and weekly results. These are also adjusted for inflation at the flick of the switch.

The Movie Comparison tool can be accessed by selecting it from the Research Tools tab at the top of the page or by going to a film's page and selecting "Compare this performance with other movies…" in the film's Box Office tab. For example, if you were curious about the performance of a few of the films that James Cameron has had a hand in writing, you can build a custom chart comparing Avatar, Titanic, and Alita: Battle Angel and adjust the figures for inflation to have an easier time making a realistic comparison. More...

Home Market Releases for July 23rd, 2019

July 24th, 2019

We are still in the summer doldrums on the home market. The biggest first run release of the week is Alita: Battle Angel, which is much better than its box office numbers and one of the best releases on this week’s list. Other contenders for Pick of the Week include Do the Right Thing and Nichijou: My Ordinary Life: The Complete Series. In the end, I went with Nichijou: My Ordinary Life: The Complete Series. In part because it is an amazing series, but also in part in solidarity with the victims of the Kyoto Animation arson attack. More...

Home Market Releases for July 9th, 2019

July 11th, 2019

It’s a very shallow week on the home market. There are two wide releases, but neither are worth picking up. There were several that are worth owning: Dead of Night, Mothra: SteelBook Edition, Silent Hill: Collectors Edition, and This Island Earth: Blu-ray. However, there was only one true contender for Pick of the Week, Alphaville: Special Edition. More...

International Box Office: Captain Marvel Takes Command of the Box Office

March 14th, 2019

Captain Marvel dominated the international chart even more than it dominated the domestic chart earning $302.0 million in 53 markets during its opening weekend for a worldwide debut of $455.3 million. Unsurprisingly, the film’s biggest market was China, where it earned $86.57 million over the weekend for a total opening of $88.86 million in the market. The film’s second best market was South Korea, where it earned $18.11 million in 2,098 screens for a total opening of $23.98 million. The film managed $16.59 million on 655 theaters in the U.K. and $13.3 million in Brazil. The film also cracked $10 million in Mexico ($12.71 million); Indonesia ($10.8 million); and Russia ($10.71 million). The only market the film didn’t open in is Japan, but it opens there this weekend. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Captain Marvel Cracks $150 million During Debut

March 12th, 2019

That burst of hot air you feel is box office analysts and movie executives breathing a sigh of relief as 2019 finally has its first win in the year-over-year comparison. Captain Marvel beat expectations earning $153.43 million over the weekend. This is more than the entire box office earned last weekend, helping the box office grow 85% week-over-week to $209 million. The year-over-year growth wasn’t as explosive, but this was still 51% more than the same weekend last year. 2019 is still way behind 2018, $480 million or 22% to be more precise at $1.75 billion to $2.23 billion. However, this gap is about 10% smaller than it was this time last week, so while 2019 has a long, long way to go to catch up to 2018, it at least looks like it is possible instead of just wishful thinking. More...

Weekend Estimates: Captain Marvel Starts Higher. Further. Faster.

March 10th, 2019

Captain Marvel is opening with $153.0 million over the weekend, according to Disney’s estimate. This is on the high end of the studio’s projections based on Friday’s estimates. Additionally, it is more than the entire box office pulled in this weekend last year, as well as the third biggest March opening and the seventh biggest opening in the MCU. The film is already the biggest domestic hit of 2019 and the fifth-biggest hit worldwide. Its legs should be relatively long for a blockbuster, as it earned certified fresh reviews and a solid A from CinemaScore. More...

Friday Estimates: Captain Marvel Sets 2019 Weekend Record in One Day

March 9th, 2019

It took just one day for Captain Marvel to set the record for biggest 2019 weekend, as it dominated the chart with $61.38 million. In fact, it is already in sixth place on the 2019 domestic chart, just behind Alita: Battle Angel. The reviews are on the lower end of the MCU average, but that says more about the high quality of the MCU than the low quality of the film, as its Tomatometer Score is 79% positive. The audience reactions are even more positive; Disney released its CinemaScore and it is a solid A. The film should have no trouble topping our prediction with Disney projecting a $145 million to $155 million weekend. I think they are being a little conservative here, but we will see tomorrow when the weekend estimates show up. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Captain Marvel have a Marvelous Start?

March 7th, 2019

This should easily be the best weekend of 2019 as Captain Marvel is widely expected to become the biggest domestic hit of 2019 and it should take just three days to get there. It could take just two days to get there. This film has no competition, at least when it comes to this year. However, the main competition is Black Panther, A Wrinkle in Time, and the rest of the box office from this weekend last year. Those films pulled in $139 million and hopefully Captain Marvel will top that by itself. More...

International Box Office: Dragons Regain Top Spot

March 7th, 2019

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World returned to first place on the international chart in almost exactly a month. It earned $54.9 million in 60 markets for totals of $280.9 million internationally and $378.6 million worldwide. The film debuted in first place in China with $33.38 million in approximately 10,000 theaters. It has yet to open in Japan and could break even before it gets there. It depends on how long its legs are and how much its advertising budget was. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Dragons Don’t Dominate, as Madea Makes the Most of its Final Debut

March 4th, 2019

2019 has hit its low point, I hope. While Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral opened faster than anticipated, Greta couldn’t pull its weight and How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World slipped faster than expected. The overall box office fell 9.4% from last weekend to $113 million. Worse still, this is 23% lower than the same weekend last year. Unfortunately, this is actually better than average for the year so far, as 2019 is now 26% or $540 million behind 2018’s pace at $1.51 billion to $2.04 billion. Fortunately, Captain Marvel should help things turn around when the film debuts in a few days. More...

Weekend Estimates: Dragons Stay Afloat, Medea Ends on a High Note

March 3rd, 2019

According to estimates, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World really bounced back on Saturday and its Sunday number will help it earn first place over the weekend with $30.05 million. This is lower than predictions and a sophomore decline of 48% is a little steep for a family film. That said, the film is nearly at $100 million domestically after just 10 days and its worldwide total is at $375 million, again according to estimates. The film opened in first place in China with $33.38 million in approximately 10,000 locations. The film’s only remaining major market is Japan, but it doesn’t open there until August. In the meantime, the film should have little trouble getting to $500 million worldwide before then. More...

Friday Estimates: Medea Takes on Dragons and Wins

March 2nd, 2019

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral got off to a faster than expected start on Friday earning $9.2 million. This might be enough to keep it in first place over the full weekend. It depends on its legs. Its reviews are only 29% positive, which normally would be a disaster, but the Madea franchise has been critic-proof for its entire history, so this really shouldn’t have an effect and opening with $26 million or more is likely. More...

Weekend Predictions: New Month, New Beginning?

February 28th, 2019

2019 has been a terrible year and we really need things to turn around soon or there will be no chance for things to turn around by the end. Fortunately, things should turn around in March. Unfortunately, it won’t be this week. The two wide releases this week are Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral and Greta. The former is expected to become a midlevel hit. The latter might not top the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Black Panther continued to dominate the box office with $66.31 million. This is likely more than the combined final domestic box office numbers of the two wide releases. 2019 will lose the year-over-year comparison, again, but hopefully for the last time in several weeks. More...

International Box Office: China Propels Alita to the Top

February 27th, 2019

Alita: Battle Angel rose to first place with $92.42 in 82 markets for totals of $202.68 million internationally and $263.70 million worldwide. The film debuted in China with $63.26 million over the weekend for a total opening of $64.31 million. This is a great start in that market and better than the film’s predicted $50 million opening and even better than its early $60 million projection. It won’t be enough to save the film’s financial future, but it will be enough to save face. The film only made $3.2 million during its opening in Japan, which is disappointing, as the movie was based on a Manga / Anime from Japan and many assumed it would perform better there. The film has no more openings but should top $400 million internationally with relative ease and with a bit of luck, could get to $450 million. We will know more next week, once we see how long its legs will be in China. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Dragons Breath Fire and Life into the Box Office

February 26th, 2019

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World not only led the way over the weekend, it had the fastest start of the year so far. This helped the overall box office grow to $127 million. This is 4.3% higher than last weekend, which might not seem impressive, but this is a post-holiday weekend and we usually see a substantial drop-off. On the other hand, this is still 34% lower than this weekend last year, as Black Panther’s sophomore stint was almost exactly double The Hidden World’s debut. This left 2019 even further behind 2018 and the gap is now 25% or $460 million at $1.36 billion to $1.82 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Dragons Roar, Holdovers Can’t Soar

February 24th, 2019

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World isn’t quite matching Friday’s projections, but it is still dominating the weekend box office with an estimated $55.53 million Friday through Sunday, and $58.03 million in total if you include the paid previews. This is by far the biggest opening of the year, topping Glass by $15 million and the film is already in the top five for 2019. Internationally, it debuted in first place in Russia with $11.2 million, pushing its weekend haul to $34.7 million, while its international running tally rose to $216.9 million. It is already the biggest worldwide hit of the year, at least it is the biggest Hollywood hit at the global box office. So far that chart is dominated by Chinese films, but that’s common, as Chinese New Year usually results in a few films earning over $100 million at the box office during that week alone. More...

Friday Estimates: Dragons Take Flight One Last Time

February 23rd, 2019

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World is beating expectations with $17.49 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $60 million over the full weekend, including its $2.5 million from paid previews. This is more than enough to be the fastest opening in the franchise and it is easily the best opening of the year so far. It’s nice for a potential major hit to actually top expectations and this is the first time that’s happened all year. Hopefully the film’s reviews and word-of-mouth can continue to lift its box office chances over the full weekend and indeed over the next few weeks. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Dragons make the Box Office Soar Again?

February 21st, 2019

There’s only one true wide release this weekend, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, but it should become the fastest opening film of the year so far. Additionally, Fighting With My Family is expanding wide and after its stellar start last weekend, it should easily earn a spot in the top five. It likely won’t be able to top Alita: Battle Angel or The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part, but it should be in a battle for fourth place with Isn’t It Romantic. On the positive side, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World should earn more than the three new wide releases from this weekend last year. On the negative side, Black Panther remained in top spot with closer to $120 million. 2019 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison, again, but at least it won’t be as bad as last week was. More...

International Box Office: Alita Playing Across the Earth, but Wandering Wins

February 20th, 2019

The Wandering Earth remained in first place on the international chart with $96.94 million over the weekend for a running tally of $606.87 million after fourteen days of release. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Alita Battles Disbelievers and Wins

February 20th, 2019

The weekend wasn’t as bad as it could have been, at least not at the top. Alita: Battle Angel topped all but the most bullish expectations with $42.25 million from Thursday through Sunday. Isn’t It Romantic matched expectations nearly perfectly, while Happy Death Day 2U struggled, but should still break even, eventually. Overall, the box office rose 8.4% from last weekend, but plummet 57% from the same weekend last year. On the positive side, that was the weekend Black Panther debuted, so we knew a drop-off like this was to be expected. On the negative side, as of the end of business on Monday, 2019 was behind 2018’s pace by a margin of over $350 million or nearly 23%. 2019 will need to turn things around soon if it wants any chance of completing a comeback. Hell, it will need to turn things around soon if it wants any chance to avoid a worst-in-a-decade end result. More...

Weekend Estimates: Alita Wins Battle for Top Spot, but Production Budget is Winning the War

February 17th, 2019

Alita: Battle Angel is topping the weekend chart with an estimated $27.8 million over the three-day weekend and $33.0 million over four. Adding in Thursday’s result gives us a total opening of $41.7 million, which is more than we predicted and we were already a little more bullish than most. Its reviews were bouncing above then sinking below the overall positive level throughout the week, but they seem to have settled on the south side at 58% positive. We won’t get the CinemaScore until Monday, but I suspect it will be substantially better than this and be in the B plus / A minus range. We don’t have solid numbers for its international weekend, but estimates have it in the $40 million range during its second weekend of release. This would have been a great run so far, had the film not cost so much to make. More...

Friday Estimates: Alita Battles it’s Way to the Top

February 16th, 2019

Alita: Battle Angel started strong on Thursday with $8.72 million and held on well on Friday down just 14% to $7.53 million. Granted, this was the worst decline of the three new releases, but it was also the only one to open on Thursday, so I think this is a strong showing. The reviews remain right on the edge of the overall positive level, so it should have acceptable legs. Look for between $25 million and $26 million over the three-day weekend and $30 million over four. This would be a good start, if the film cost $100 million to make. However, with a budget between $160 million and $170 million, depending on tax breaks, even getting to $100 million domestically will just be saving face. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will there be a Lot of Love At the Box Office this week?

February 14th, 2019

It’s a very odd weekend at the box office. Not only is it a long weekend with most people having Monday off, but Valentine’s Day is Thursday and two of the three wide releases opened on Wednesday. The biggest new release is Alita: Battle Angel, but the film reportedly cost as much as $200 million to make and there’s a chance it will open with less than $20 million over the three-day portion of the weekend. Isn’t It Romantic should get the biggest boost thanks to Valentine’s Day. Meanwhile, Happy Death Day 2U is hoping to top the original. As for this weekend last year, it was the weekend Black Panther debuted. 2019 is going to get destroyed at the year-over-year comparison, again. If it loses by less than 50%, I will be happy. That’s how bad things have gotten. More...

International Box Office: The Wandering Earth goes Global

February 13th, 2019

The international box office lived up to its name with the top three films all being international films. The Wandering Earth dominated the box office with $179.80 million over the weekend of a total seven-day opening of $298.27 million. This is an outstanding debut, even when you consider the benefits of Chinese New Year at the box office. More...

Preview: February

February 1st, 2019

2019 got off to a slow start as the biggest release of January, Glass, missed expectations and as a result, 2019 lost every weekend in the year-over-year comparison. Unfortunately, 2019 isn’t going to turn things around this month, as last February, Black Panther broke all of the records. That doesn’t mean there are no bright spots this month. Both The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part and How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World are virtually guaranteed to reach $100 million domestically, while I wouldn’t be too surprised if one or both hit $200 million. Meanwhile, there are several midlevel hits, one of which could turn into a surprise $100 million hit. That said, there’s a chance all nine movies opening this month combined will earn less than Black Panther did last year. More...

Alita: Battle Angel Trailer

July 24th, 2018

Sci-fi action movie starring Rosa Salazar and Christoph Waltz, directed by Robert Rodriguez, opens December 21 ... Full Movie Details.

When Alita awakens with no memory of who she is in a future world she does not recognize, she is taken in by Ido, a compassionate doctor who realizes that somewhere in this abandoned cyborg shell is the heart and soul of a young woman with an extraordinary past. As Alita learns to navigate her new life and the treacherous streets of Iron City, Ido tries to shield her from her mysterious history while her street-smart new friend Hugo offers instead to help trigger her memories. But it is only when the deadly and corrupt forces that run the city come after Alita that she discovers a clue to her past—she has unique fighting abilities that those in power will stop at nothing to control. If she can stay out of their grasp, she could be the key to saving her friends, her family and the world she’s grown to love. More...