Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Home Market Releases for February 18th, 2020

February 19th, 2020

There are not a lot of major releases on this week’s list, but what we lack in quantity, we more than make up for in quality. In fact, there are five contenders for Pick of the Week and a couple of other smaller releases that might end up in my collection soon. It is going to be a rough week on my wallet. These include a couple of Oscar contenders, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Jojo Rabbit; a couple of animated releases, The Point! and Tex Avery: Screwball Classics: Volume 1; and a TV on DVD Megaset, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: The Complete Series. All five releases are worth picking up, but I’m going with Jojo Rabbit as this week’s Pick of the Week. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Thanksgiving Shows 2019 still has some Spark Left

December 2nd, 2019

2019 hasn’t been a great year and has consistently been behind 2018. However, 2018 was the biggest ever year at the box office and 2019 has been in a battle for second place for much of the year. Thanksgiving beat expectations and the overall performances over the Thanksgiving weekend really helped 2019’s chances to secure second place. Frozen II broke records earning first place for its three-day and five-day Thanksgiving weekends. In fact, its three-day weekend haul of $85.98 million would have landed in third place on the all-time five-day chart. Additionally, both new releases, Knives Out and Queen and Slim, topped expectations leading to a robust box office. Granted, the overall box office was a little lower, down 12%, from last weekend at $180 million. This is common for Thanksgiving, as the Wednesday and Thursday holidays are so popular with moviegoers that they reduce the box office potential of the Friday through Sunday weekend. This is 56% higher than the same weekend last year, but this is due to a misalignment in the holidays. This Thanksgiving was 16.5% lower than last year’s Thanksgiving, but the misalignment of the holidays does have an effect there as well, so it isn’t a perfect comparison either. Next weekend will be a lot better when it comes to the year-over-year comparison. Year-to-date, 2019 is still behind 2018 by a large margin, but 2019 was able to close to the gap a bit to 6.0% or $640 million at $10.03 billion to $10.67 billion. Getting that gap lower is the goal for December, as it is virtually impossible that 2019 will catch up completely. I would be really impressed if they can cut that gap in half. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Frozen has Fantastic Opening with $130.26 million

November 26th, 2019

Frozen II beat expectations over the weekend, and earned several records along the way. In fact, its three-day opening of $130.26 million is better than the previous 5-day Thanksgiving weekend for an animated film, a record previously held by Frozen. The other two new releases, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and 21 Bridges, missed expectations, but were close enough that the overall box office was very healthy. In fact, the box office rose 89% from last weekend to $204 million. This was 5.7% lower than the same weekend last year, but this weekend last year was Thanksgiving, so being down by 5.7% during a holiday misalignment is a fantastic result. We did lose the weekday holidays, so year-over-year, 2019 lost a lot of ground to 2018 and is now behind last year’s pace by 7.4% or $770 million at $9.71 billion to $10.48 billion. We should gain a lot next weekend, thanks to Thanksgiving, and by the first weekend of December, things will settle down. More...

Weekend Estimates: Frozen II Sets Animation Records with $127 million

November 24th, 2019

It didn’t look like Frozen II would match our $125 million prediction based on Friday’s estimate, but if weekend estimates hold, it will did so with $127.0 million. This is not only the highest opening weekend for an Animated film in November, but anytime outside of summer. This greater-than-anticipated internal multiplier stronger suggests better legs overall. It is a family film opening just before Thanksgiving, so it was expected to have long legs regardless, but its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore were merely good and not great. Add in the sequel effect and the film leg’s wouldn’t be nearly as stunning as the first Frozen’s legs were. However, after this result, I’m a lot more confident the film will still be at least a truly wide release come January, if not a saturation level release, as its predecessor was. More...

Friday Estimates: Frozen II Sets Fire to the Record Book

November 23rd, 2019

As expected, Frozen II started with a record-breaking Friday, as the film pulled in $41.8 million during its opening day, the best day in November for an animated film. Combine this start with its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore and the film should have decent legs. The audience reaction is a little disappointing, so I think our prediction of $125 million is unlikely. It will come close enough to become a huge hit domestically. In fact, it is on pace to smash the November 3-day weekend for an animated film by the middle of Saturday and the five-day Thanksgiving weekend for any film by the middle of Sunday, and it isn’t even Thanksgiving. Those records are currently held by The Incredibles ($70.5 million) and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire ($109.9 million). The Incredibles record will obviously be broken, but we’ll have to wait until next week to see what Thanksgiving looks like. Frozen II is the fastest-starting November animated release of all time, but I don’t think it will have the legs to catch Frozen’s domestic total, unless it is able to remain in saturation level wide release until the New Year. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Frozen Gets Off to a Hot Start

November 22nd, 2019

Frozen II is giving box office watchers a reason to celebrate after earning $8.5 million during its previews on Thursday, setting the record for an animated film in November. This is not as much as The Lion King ($23 million) or Toy Story 4 ($12 million) made during their previews, but those two films opened during summer holidays and family films’ performances during previews is proportional to the number of kids who are on holidays. A better comparison is Aladdin, which earned $7 million during its previews back in May before the vast majority of kids were out of school. It turned that preview into an opening weekend haul of $91 million. This film does have better reviews and I think there isn’t much difference between a sequel and a remake when it comes to legs, so that should help this film’s legs. I’m cautiously optimistic that the film will match our $125 million weekend prediction. We will know more when we get Friday’s estimates. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Frozen Heat Up the Box Office?

November 21st, 2019

The winter holiday season unofficially began on the first weekend of November and so far performance at the box office has been less than acceptable. That needs to—and should—turn around this weekend. According to most industry trackers, Frozen II should break records. Its reviews are far from award-worthy, but they are great for a family film. On the other hand, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood’s reviews are award-worthy and the film should have really long legs, especially if major nominations start rolling in. Finally, 21 Bridges has the weakest reviews and the lowest box office potential of the three wide releases this week. This weekend last year was led by the one-two punch of Ralph Breaks the Internet and Creed II. Frozen II should easily earn more than those two’s combined $92 million. Unfortunately, last year there were four films that topped $20 million over the weekend, while this year there will be only one. Last year’s depth will likely result in 2019 losing yet another weekend in the year-over-year competition. At least it should be close. More...

2019 Preview: November

November 1st, 2019

Joker single-handedly saved October. Had the film merely matched expectations, then the month would had suffered a major loss in the year-over-year competition. We sill lost a little ground, but not so much that we will look to October as the reason 2019 missed last year’s pace. As for November, we have some potential monster hits with Frozen II leading the way. If that film doesn’t earn at least $1 billion worldwide, I will be shocked. Additionally, every week has at least one movie coming out that has a somewhat realistic shot at $100 million, although not all of them will get there. Unfortunately, last November was much better, with five films that topped $100 million, including three that earned more than $200 million. I think 2019 will be better at the top, but it just won’t have the depth to keep pace with last year. More...